The clay-court season is nearing its glittering crescendo, as the entire tennis world descends on Paris for the latest instalment of the French Open.
The City of Light transforms into a festival of tennis for the coming fortnight, with the women’s draw appearing a far more tantalizing prospect than the men’s. Jannik Sinner’s all-encompassing dominance- exacerbated by Carlos Alcaraz’s wrist injury- had rendered the men’s side somewhat inevitable. By contrast, the women’s side of the draw is a turbulent free-for-all, with traditional clay-court queens Sabalenka and Swiatek failing to win a clay-court precursor between them. During the glory days of the ‘Big Three’, people used to ridicule the women’s game for its erratic unpredictability (an Ostapenko-type event would never happen on the elite men’s circuit). I bet all those naysayers would love to hijack some of that unpredictability and transfer it to the men’s side right now.
Still looking for her first slam on the natural surfaces, World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka has looked unconvincing in her French Open buildup. With Swiatek struggling, I thought this would be Sabalenka’s opportunity to dictate the clay-court season. Four-time champ Iga Swiatek made some minor improvements in Rome but is yet to reach a final this season. Could this be her opportunity to regain some of that mythic aura? Aussie Open champ Elena Rybakina has enjoyed some clay-court success this season and will go into this edition as arguably the most feared opponent in the field. Defending champ Coco Gauff appears to be trending nicely while the likes of Andreeva, Svitolina and Pegula toggle for position behind the key protagonists (I didn’t even mention Madrid champ Kostyuk). With Swiatek flailing and Sabalenka struggling, this looks like it may be the most open Grand Slam in recent memory.
Past Champions
2025: Coco Gauff bt Aryna Sabalenka (6-7, 6-2, 6-4)
2024: Iga Swiatek bt Jasmine Paolini (6-2, 6-1)
2023: Iga Swiatek bt Karolina Muchova (6-2, 5-7, 6-4)
2022: Iga Swiatek bt Coco Gauff (6-1, 6-3)
2021: Barbora Krejcikova bt Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (6-1, 2-6, 6-4)
2020: Iga Swiatek bt Sofia Kenin (6-4, 6-1)
Clay-court precursors this season
Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula bt Yulia Starodubtseva (6-2, 6-2)
Copa Colsanitas: Marie Bouzkova bt Panna Udvardy (6-7, 6-2, 6-2)
Linz Open (Indoor): Mirra Andreeva bt Anastasia Potapova (1-6, 6-4, 6-3)
Stuttgart Open: Elena Rybakina bt Karolina Muchova (7-5, 6-1)
Open de Rouen: Marta Kostyuk bt Veronika Podrez (6-3, 6-4)
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk bt Mirra Andreva (6-3, 7-5)
Italian Open: Elina Svitolina bt Coco Gauff (6-4, 6-7, 6-2)
Internationaux de Strasbourg & Morocco Open: in progress
The Big Four- Aryna Sabalenka (1), Elena Rybakina (2), Iga Swiatek (3) and Coco Gauff (4)
World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka will have revenge on her mind after a blowing a one-set lead against Gauff in last year’s championship match. You get the feeling that Sabalenka is edging closer to Parisian glory. However, the Belarusian has met some clay-court headwinds in recent weeks, losing to Baptise in Madrid and to Cirstea in Rome. She has been dealing with back and hip issues and criticized the Dunlop ball used in Madrid and Rome (she wasn’t able to penetrate the court as easily). She has also been distracted by the whole pay dispute saga, arguing that players should be getting a bigger piece of the pie after increased revenue. I personally think it would be foolish to discount Sabalenka. Maybe she needed a slightly sub-par buildup to ease some of that burden of expectation. She has been a Grand Slam demon in recent years, reaching the semifinal stage or better in 14 of her last 17 outings.
Kazakh Elena Rybakina has rediscovered her precious fear factor, mercilessly storming to last year’s WTA Finals title before claiming a 2nd career Grand Slam in Melbourne. Could this be her time to finally progress beyond the quarterfinal stage in Paris? I think she will be really encouraged by her recent form. Rybakina is the only top contender with a clay-court title this year, beating Muchova in straight sets in the Stuttgart final. She reached the Rome quarters and has been able to enjoy over a week off in preparation for her Paris title surge. There’s a part of me that wants to dismiss Rybakina, pointing towards her general inconsistency on the surface. But her success in those two marquee events seems to have brought her intimidation factor back. I could see her falling in the opening four rounds. But if she doesn’t; watch out.
A few years back, Iga Swiatek looked destined to dominate this event for the next decade. She won the event four times in five years, dishing out enough bagels to work in a deli. But she has lost her mystique this season, only reaching one semifinal in her seven tournaments thus far. Players are just upping the tempo against her, exploiting her backhand side (little wonder Ostapenko has enjoyed so much success against her). She has also lost that feeling of clay-court invincibility, struggling with her movement amidst a series of little niggles and coaching changes. To put it into perspective, Swiatek’s semifinal defeat to Svitolina in Rome means that she has only won two of her last five clay-court matches against top ten players. Look, nobody gave her a chance of winning Wimbledon last year. But she changed things up cleverly, hitting ball flatter to exploit the low SW19 bounce. Can she make that type of late-stage alteration in an arena that she holds so dear? I personally think there are too many in-form players for an out-of-form Swiatek to negotiate.
Of all the key cast members in this year’s drama, Coco Gauff is the one I feel most confident about. The American has been consistent this year, reaching the Aussie Open quarterfinals while picking up runner-up finishes in Miami and Rome. She pushed a seemingly unbeatable Sabalenka to three sets in that Miami final before forcing a decider against Svitolina in Rome. Losing both of those finals in three sets is significant, hinting at a readiness for battle. She has been solid if unremarkable, gliding nicely under the radar while all her key opponents have enjoyed either big highs or huge lows (or a combination of both). Gauff is the ultimate grinder who should get better as the tournament progresses. I wouldn’t be surprised if she becomes the first American to win back-to-back titles here since Monica Seles in 91-92.
My Other Top Ten Picks- Mirra Andreeva (8) and Karolina Muchova (10)
Let me kick this off by immediately eliminating two of the top ten ladies. I think it’s going to be tough for Amanda Anismova compete after spending two months in the cold with a wrist injury. The 2019 French Open semi-finalist enjoyed a breakthrough campaign last year, finishing runner up at both Wimbledon and the US Open. But it’s going to take a monumental effort for her to compete without playing a single clay-court match all season. Also, rapidly improving Canadian Victoria Mboko is still very green at this level, competing in just her 5th Grand Slam tournament.
The next two are much harder to cut. Elina Svitolina is arguably enjoying the best season of her entire career, reaching her first Grand Slam semifinal since 2023 at the Aussie Open. She has been consistent on all surfaces, reaching three finals and winning titles in Auckland and- crucially- Rome. She has looked inspired on the clay, reaching the Stuttgart semis before her giant-conquering run in Rome (she accounted for the likes of Swiatek, Rybakina and Gauff). I just feel like I have been bitten too many times with Svitolina. When it comes down to the business end of this tournament, I still think I have more belief in some of the other ladies.
Jessica Pegula is enjoying an extremely solid campaign. She underlined her burgeoning Grand Slam credentials with a semifinal run in Melbourne. She won a WTA 1000 event in Dubai and showed off her clay-court grit with victory in Charleston. But I still have misgivings about her ability to get it done on these courts. A quarterfinalist in 2022, Pegula hasn’t gone beyond the 4th round in her subsequent showings. While she has shown that she can adjust her game to be competitive on clay, I just think it takes more than that to complete the job in Paris.
Mirra Andreeva is my first top ten selection (it was close guys). I just think that the Russian teenager looks ready to explode at Grand Slam level. She has been particularly impressive since the tour turned to clay, clearly taking on the advice of coach Conchita Martinez. She is 15-3 on the sticky stuff this season, with highlights including a title in Linz and a runner-up finish in Madrid. It feels like Andreeva is ready to blossom into the player that we all know she can be. She has upped the aggression this year, transforming her serve into a potent weapon. She has also been flirting with this title in recent years, reaching the semifinals in 2024 before a quarterfinal run last year. She has less scar-tissue than Svitolina and Pegula and could be a huge factor.
My second top ten pick is going to be perennial dark horse Karolina Muchova. The 2023 French Open runner-up is an elite Grand Slam competitor, reaching the semifinal stage or better in four slams. She also has the distinction of being the only player to siphon a set off Swiatek in a French Open final. Muchova has been extremely consistent this year, reaching the semifinal stage or better in four events. She looked deadly on the Stuttgart clay, taking down Rome finalists Svitolina and Gauff en route to a runner-up finish. I’m willing to put that shock Rome loss to Potapova down to a bit of complacency. She should be anything but complacent on the big stage, relying on her incredible variety to chart a way to the latter stages of the event.
Mid-tier Options (11-20)- Marta Kostyuk (15) and Madison Keys (19)
Marta Kostyuk is an absolute no-brainer. The Ukrainian has backflipped her way into the hearts of the tennis community during this clay-court campaign, winning back-to-back titles in Rouen and Madrid. Currently working an 11-match winning streak, Kostyuk opted to skip Rome due to a hip issue. To me, that screamed ‘I’m preserving myself for a proper Grand Slam tilt’. Kostyuk has evolved considerably this year, tempering her famed volatile streak in high-pressure situations. She has also adopted a more aggressive approach on the clay, extricating herself from some of those unnecessary- if entertaining- protracted rallies. She could be a real force this fortnight.
This next selection might be me having a no-brainer. 2025 Aussie Open champ Madison Keys has struggled with injury this year, pulling out of the current Strasbourg Open due to a thigh issue. So, it’s obviously a bit risky to put too much stock into her chances. But I think- if fit- her Grand Slam nous could come to the fore again. Keys has reached the quarterfinal stage of a slam on 12 occasions, reaching the semifinals here back in 2018. A quarterfinalist here last year, Keys has the pure power to penetrate these comparatively slow surfaces. She has shown signs of clay-court life during this injury-interrupted campaign, reaching the semifinals in Charleston before a runner-up finish at a WTA 125K event in Paris.
Longshot Options (21 and higher)- Anastasia Potapova (28) and Barbora Krejcikova
Affectionately known as the potato by some of her fans, Russian Anastasia Potapova has been a minor revelation since the start of the clay-court campaign. The hard-hitting Russian has curbed some of her more reckless instincts, learning to temper her all-out aggression with more astute defensive play. She has suddenly emerged into a high-quality clay-court competitor, reaching the final in Linz before amazingly reaching the Madrid semifinals as a lucky loser. She has accounted for some notable scalps in her clay-court killing spree, with the likes of Ostapenko, Rybakina and Muchova struggling with her potent cocktail of power and athleticism. A quarterfinalist here last year, Potapova looks ready to mount a serious charge.
Two-time Grand Slam champ Barbora Krejcikova is always a dangerous floater at this level. The 2021 French Open champ has suffered with injury setbacks these last few seasons, missing much of last year due to a knee issue. She has also been battling a recurring back issue that forced her to withdraw from Madrid. She hasn’t been at her best this season but a recent runner-up at the WTA 250 event in Parma augers well for her chances of a Roland Garros renaissance. She hasn’t gone past the 2nd round in Paris since that herculean 2021 run. But she is a known Grand Slam entity, reaching the quarterfinal stage or better in six slams.
