After their rousing draw with France in Villeneuve-d’Ascq in round three, Italy host Scotland in Rome hoping to keep the momentum going.
2024 Six Nations
Scotland v Italy
Saturday 9 March 2024 – 14:15
Stadio Olimpico
Scotland harbour an outside chance of lifting their first Six Nations Championship since 1999. First though, they will need a to navigate a tricky away trip against an Italian side who will be buzzing after their draw in France. Shaun Goosen previews.
To Win Match
Italy 21/5 | Draw 33/1 | Scotland 21/100
Had Paolo Garbisi’s last-gasp penalty sailed a few inches to the left, the Azzurri would still be celebrating what would have been a monumental win over France in the previous round – something that would have seemed unthinkable not so long ago. As it happened, the final 13-13 scoreline is still hugely important in the context of where Gonzalo Quesada’s Italy side are and where they want to end up.
With Scotland paying the Stadio Olimpico a visit this weekend, Italy have another great opportunity to win their first Six Nations game since 2022 and just a second since 2015. Momentum and confidence is on their side and they can cause the Scots plenty of problems if they can front up at the contact point.
Garbisi may also feel he has a point to prove after the events of round three and will view this as another chance to prove his worth playing opposite arguably the premier No 10 in the game in Finn Russell.
Gregor Townsend’s charges claimed a clinical 30-21 Calcutta Cup victory over the English at Murrayfield in their previous outing and can keep their title hopes alive with a good performance ahead of their final-round clash in Dublin. Although Scotland should be far too strong for Italy on paper, when the venue and form of both sides is factored in it becomes a lot less predictable.
The absence of injured Sione Tuipulotu at No 12 is a big blow to the visitors, and while Cameron Redpath is a handy replacement, the former’s destructive ball-carrying will be missed. That said, Scotland have the quality and experience to see this through if they can keep their heads.
Verdict: Italy (+10.5) 20/21
As tempting as it is to call an Italy win, the safest option is to take them on the double-digit plus handicap.
