With the 2026 Six Nations Championship on the line, both Ireland and Scotland will be going hammer and tongs in the last round in Dublin on Saturday to put themselves in a position to steal the title from under France’s nose.
Saturday 14 March
Ireland | Draw | Scotland
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Match context
The hosts have done well to overcome their opening round thrashing in Paris to still be in contention ahead of the final weekend, though winning the championship from here will be no easy feat. They lie third on the ladder, two points off both the French and Scots, and look least likely to come away with the spoils at the close of play this weekend.
Andy Farrell’s men head into round five after having beaten out Wales 27-17 in Dublin and will be banking on their home support, as well as their overwhelming record over Scotland, to boost them when the Brave Hearts arrive at the Aviva on Saturday.
It’s been nine years since Scotland last beat their Celtic opponents, a period that has produced 11 successive defeats. If we zoom out even further, the Emerald Isle has won 15 of the last 16 Tests played between the nations, meaning it’s not too much of a stretch to suggest that Gregor Townsend’s charges will need another all-time great performance to remain alive ahead of France’s kick-off with England later in the day.
The away side are level on points with leaders Les Bleus, but their inferior points difference (21 to France’s 79) means even a bonus point victory in the Irish capital this weekend may not be enough. Although it does seem like France’s tournament to lose, Scotland deserve their flowers regardless after starting off, like Ireland, with defeat, before rousing themselves to consecutively beat England, Wales and the French themselves.
That latter display will go down in Scottish rugby folklore, with the Murrayfield crowd egging their side on to an eventual 50-40 win, with the scoreline heavily flattering Fabien Galthie’s men. Nothing less than a similar performance will be required this weekend if they are to secure their place in the history books.
Players to watch
Garry Ringrose (Ireland)
The experienced outside centre will need to be locked in from the get-go, and his defensive organisation with those around him must be pinpoint given how well the Scottish attacked fared a week ago. The Brave Hearts have a battalion of offensive weapons at their disposal and cut France to shreds in Paris, meaning Ringrose’s influence for Ireland on Saturday will be of cardinal importance when they’re on the other side of the ball.
If the 31-year-old and his backline teammates can remain alert and contain the Scotland attack, they will have a solid foundation from which to achieve victory.
Blair Kinghorn (Scotland)
As tempting as it was to opt again for the irrepressible Kyle Steyn, Kinghorn will be another who will play a huge role this week. The Toulouse man produced some fine attacking moments against a lot of his club teammates in round four but his influence at the back may need to be more defensive-minded in Dublin.
Kinghorn will need to cope with Jack Crowley and Jamison Gibson-Park’s aerial bombs, and his ability to diffuse pressure for Scotland and get them out of danger will be critical against an Ireland setup that places such a high value on territory.
Tactical overview
One of the biggest questions this week will be whether Scotland can rise to the occasion in the same manner they did against France, especially away from Murrayfield. Their rotten record against Ireland is also difficult to ignore, and how much of a psychological effect that will have on the players remains to be seen.
If the visitors’ forwards can block out the noise and hit the Irish pack hard, they will free up their backs to play their natural attacking game, but it’s going to take a massive effort from numbers one through eight. They’ll still be feeling the bruises of their battle with France’s heavies and Ireland may be fresher after their relatively less intense encounter with Wales.
Ireland will also have the benefit of singling out many of the strike plays the Scots employed to such deadly effect a week ago, while the noise of the Aviva is not to be underestimated.
Given everything we know about these sides, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ireland’s structural and tactical awareness blunt Scotland’s zeal and condemn them to another year as also-rans.
Prediction
Back the hosts to spoil the party for the Scots and get the victory, though not by much. Ireland on the board here.
