This has been a crazy WTA 1000 season, and this event has been no exception, with a resurgent Naomi Osaka set to take on teenage sensation Victoria Mboko in this battle of unseeded finalists.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
National Bank Open (Canadian Open)
IGA Stadium, Montreal, Quebec (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Ladies Final Preview- 8th August
Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko
Osaka will need to overcome a hostile Canadian crowd if she wishes to win her first WTA 1000 title since the 2019 China Open. Mboko is just living in the moment, enjoying her breakthrough success in front of adoring fans.
Naomi Osaka
Naomi Osaka is officially back. The 27-year-old Japanese star survived some late jitters to see of Dane Clara Tauson 6-2, 7-6 in their semifinal clash, progressing to a WTA 1000 final for the first time since the 2022 Miami Open. Osaka won almost 90% of her first-serve points in the first set but lost her delivery in the 2nd. Still, she managed to find her best tennis in the 2nd set tiebreak, using her incredible power to overwhelm the Dane. Osaka has been sensational this fortnight, dropping just one set against Samsonova. She thrashed Svitolina in an impressive quarterfinal showing (a performance that was overshadowed by Svitolina’s post-match, online harassment). Furthermore, the Japanese hardcourt specialist assured herself of a US Open seeding with that win over Svitolina.
I really had my doubts as to whether we would see this side of Osaka again. She has endured a litany of issues over the years, struggling with mental health concerns and a variety of injuries. She also missed 15 months of action during her pregnancy with daughter Shai. She has showed glimpses of her best self this season, retiring while leading in the Auckland final. She reached the final 16 in Miami and picked up 3rd round Grand Slam finishes in Melbourne and Paris. But I just wasn’t sure whether she would have the durability (or consistency) to go this deep in a stellar event. But this was always going to be the portion of the season where she was bound to thrive. The four-time Grand Slam champ is perhaps the most dominant hardcourt player in the post-Serena period, winning two Aussie Open titles to go with her two US Open crowns.
Victoria Mboko
Wow. I don’t really know where to begin with Victoria Mboko’s semifinal win over Elena Rybakina. The 18-year-old Canadian sensation had to dig deep on numerous occasions, ultimately seeing off the former Wimbledon champ 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 (gaining revenge after going down to the Kazakh in Washington). She looked overawed in the opening salvos, committing numerous errors against the hard-hitting Kazakh. But she found her range from that point on, putting tremendous pressure on Rybakina’s serve with some humungous groundstrokes. She twice had to come back from a two-game deficit in the decider, saving a match-point in the process. To be fair, we must mention Rybakina’s role in the melodrama. The Kazakh just can’t seem to get the job done in crunch matches, losing to love when serving for the match (she committed four unforced errors in that game). Still, Mboko hung in there and showed remarkable maturity, perhaps realizing that Rybakina was ripe for self-destruction.
The Canadian created a niche little bit of history with her victory, becoming the first Canadian player to defeat three former Grand Slam champions in the same event (Kenin, Gauff and Rybakina). The Canadian was a promising junior player but struggled with injuries over the last few years. She started the year ranked 303rd in the world (I honestly hadn’t her of her before). She is now currently 34th in the live rankings! She went on a deranged run at ITF level, winning 22 successive matches and five events at the start of the season. And she has made incremental progress from that point on, reaching a maiden Challenger final in Parma before winning her first Grand Slam matches at the French Open and Wimbledon (where she reached the 3rd and 2nd rounds respectively). But she has taken her game to a new level this fortnight, finding great success on that forehand wing. The highly partisan crowd have been very boisterous (even boorish), giving her an added shot of confidence. Honestly, it looks like she could beat anyone right now.
The Verdict: Osaka to win in straight sets at – This will be their first career meeting. This should be a fascinating clash, with both ladies playing powerfully from the baseline this past fortnight. I just think that Mboko could struggle with the expectations of a final. Osaka understands the occasion and wont be overawed by it. Mboko may look to go for a bit too much against Osaka, eager to assert some dominance in rallies.
