The day-in, day-out insanity of the FIFA World Cup has sucked up much of the sporting world’s oxygen (even last week’s US Open golf passed in relative anonymity).
But if there’s one individual sporting event that can stand up to the World Cup behemoth: it’s Wimbledon. And this year’s women’s draw has a compelling new narrative: the return of Serena Williams. The seven-time champ, now 44, returns to SW19 for the first time since losing to Harmony Tan in the first round of the 2022 edition. Regardless of age, Williams brings an aura that could intimidate some of the more inexperienced campaigners. Williams returns to a healthy but volatile women’s draw, where none of the top players have looked consistent throughout the season. The women’s draw at Wimbledon has been a lottery in recent seasons, with nine different winners in each of the last nine editions. You must go back to 2015-2016 to find the last back-to-back winner: Serena Williams. Could the returning queen of women’s tennis disrupt the current status quo?
World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka’s quest for a Grand Slam on natural surfaces continues. She hasn’t looked herself since claiming the ‘Sunshine Double’, bageled by Diana Shnaider in the deciding set of their French Open quarterfinal. Can she bounce back and reach a first Wimbledon final? Defending champ Iga Swiatek produced a performance for the ages last year, defying all her past grass-court issues to win the unlikeliest of her seven Grand Slam titles. She will be hoping to take another trip to that sweet grass-court well after what has been a disappointing campaign. Reigning Aussie Open champ Elena Rybakina will look to emulate her incredible 2022 winning run. Coco Gauff has endured an up and down campaign and will need to fight her way through from a lower seeding. French Open champ Mirra Andreeva should feel emboldened while the likes of Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova will be keen to break their Grand Slam ducks (Anisimova has unfinished business after that traumatic double-bagel in last year’s final). This has the potential to be one of the most unpredictable slams in recent memory.
Sidenote: 2023 champ Marketa Vondrousova will not be in action after being suspended for four years for not complying with a drug test in December.
Wimbledon Precursors
Queen’s Club Championships: Donna Vekic bt Emma Radacanu (6-0, 7-6)
Rosmalen Championships: Robin Montgomery bt Barbora Krejcikova (walkover)
German Open: Linda Noskova bt Jessica Pegula (6-4, 4-6, 6-3)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova bt Emma Navarro (7-6, 4-6, 6-2)
Bad Homburg Open: in progress
Eastbourne Open: in progress
Past Winners
2025: Iga Swiatek bt Amanda Anisimova (6-0, 6-0)
2024: Barbora Krejcikova bt Jasmine Paolini (6-2, 2-6, 6-4)
2023: Marketa Vondrousova bt Ons Jabeur (6-4, 6-4)
2022: Elena Rybakina bt Ons Jabeur (3-6, 6-2, 6-2)
2021: Ashleigh Barty bt Karolina Pliskova (6-3, 6-7, 6-3)
2020: no event due to Covid
The Top Three- Aryna Sabalenka (1), Elena Rybakina (2) and Iga Swiatek (3)
This has been a surreal season for world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian powerhouse looked her usual self in the opening salvos of the campaign, winning in Brisbane before that epic Aussie Open final defeat to Rybakina. She rebounded from that Melbourne defeat in emphatic style, winning the ‘Sunshine Double’ to underline her status as the world’s best player. But she has struggled for consistency since, culminating in a pride-swallowing capitulation against Shnaider at the French Open (she was bageled in the deciding set). After the defeat, Sabalenka hinted that she felt like retiring from the game. She reached the semifinals in Berlin before being outdone by a case of déjà vu, as she was bagled by Jessica Pegula in the decisive 3rd set. She seems mentally exhausted. Sabalenka has reached the semifinal stage here in her last three seasons, and I would expect a similar result this time around. For some reason, I don’t see her winning it all.
2nd seed Elena Rybakina has also had her troubles since clinching a 2nd career Grand Slam title in Melbourne. In fact, her calendar mirrors Sabalenka’s quite closely. Rybakina beat the Belarusian in the Aussie Open final and would then enjoy a solid ‘Sunshine Double’, trumped by Sabalenka in the Indian Wells semifinals and again in the Miami final. She then won Stuttgart to get her clay-court campaign off to a rip-roaring start. But she has plateaued since then, failing to reach another semifinal during the clay-court swing. She has also not looked herself on the grass, going 1-2 in her two lead-in events. She picked up a hip issue earlier this month, forcing her to withdraw from the current Bad Homburg Open. Is there enough time for her to shake those lingering hip issues? I always think it takes a brave man to write off Rybakina. The 2022 champ leans on her serve and monstrous, flat groundstrokes to keep points short and simple. I think that she- injury permitting- could be a handful this fortnight.
Seven-time Grand Slam champ Iga Swiatek will be hoping that the grass-courts can offer her the same salvation that they did last season. Swiatek- like last season- has arrived for the grass-court campaign having not reached a final all year. That would have been an unthinkable scenario two years back. But the Pole found something on the grass last year, flattening out her groundstrokes to reach the Bad Homburg final before claiming the Wimbledon title in totally unexpected fashion. I’m certain that her and coach Francisco Roig (a former member of Nadal’s coaching staff) will be looking to repeat the dose; flatten out the groundstrokes and play first-strike tennis. However, the mechanics of her serve have been all over the place this season and I think that could cost her in her title defence.
My Other Top Ten Picks- Jessica Pegula (4) and Linda Noskova (9)
Now I’m going to look at some of the other top-ten contenders. Coached by former Wimbledon champ Conchita Martinez, newly minted French Open champ Mirra Andreeva should be oozing confidence right now. She lost her only grass-court precursor to Ekaterina Alexandrova, but she has a solid bank of Wimbledon experience, reaching the quarterfinals last year. Like so many teenage major champs, I think it could be a struggle for her to maintain that level of consistency in her very next major outing. Amanda Ansimova hasn’t reached a final all year and has to deal with the considerable scar tissue from last year’s final, where she was on the receiving end of the first double bagel in a Wimbledon final since 1911! I’m also comfortable omitting Karolina Muchova. This is the only slam where she hasn’t progressed to the semifinals, and she has never reached a grass-court final in her career.
Now to the top-ten players who just missed out on my selection. Coco Gauff is a bit of a headscratcher. The American captured the tennis world’s imagination as a 15-year-old on these surfaces, eliminated by eventual champ Simona Halep in the 4th round of the 2019 edition. The problem is that she is yet to progress any further than that in any of subsequent visits. Moreover, she is yet to compete in a grass-court final. Gauff is a great counterpuncher who looks to use plenty of topspin. These SW19 surfaces require a more direct approach. Then you have two-time Wimbledon semi-finalist Elina Svitolina. Svitolina has enjoyed a wonderfully consistent 18 months or so, reaching the quarterfinals or better in four of her last six slams (including an exceptional semifinal run at this year’s Aussie Open). She has upped the aggression in recent years and will be a threat. I still think she lacks the BMT to win successive, pressure-filled matches in the 2nd week of the tournament.
Now to my fist top-ten pick: Jessica Pegula. The ‘Buffalo Bulldog’ (my own invention) has been inching ever closer to that first Grand Slam title, reaching the final of the 2024 US Open before back-to-back semifinal runs at the 2025 US Open and this year’s Aussie Open. She wilted in the Parisian heatwave, shocked in the first round by the completely unfancied Kimberly Birrell. The American bounced back with a solid runner-up finish in Berlin, hinting at her obvious grass-court potential. She has won grass-court titles in Berlin and Bad Homburg but has always flattered to deceive at SW19. She enjoyed a career-best quarterfinal run in 2024 but was then embarrassed by Cocciaretto last year, losing their first-round clash in under an hour. I think her recent showing in Berlin is a sign that she may be ready for another deep Wimbledon push.
Next up I’m opting for the woman who beat Pegula in the Berlin final: Linda Noskova. The 21-year-old Czech has enjoyed a rapid ascent in the world rankings this past year, creeping into the top ten for the first time in her career courtesy of that Berlin triumph. The big-serving, aggressive baseliner has looked threatening this season, reaching the semifinals in Indian Wells before a solid quarterfinal run in Madrid. The Czech made a solid impression here last season, going down to eventual finalist Amanda Anisimova in the round of 16. Noskova, with her big serve and brand of first-strike tennis, reminds me of an emerging Elena Rybakina.
Mid-range Options (11-20)- Belinda Bencic (11) and Ivo Jovic (16)
A semi-finalist here last season, Belinda Bencic just makes more sense than many of the other mid-range options. The technically gifted Swiss star enjoyed a stellar 2025 campaign, winning titles in Abu Dhabi and Tokyo to go with that Wimbledon run. This year, she has endured a frustrating ‘nearly’ campaign, reaching the round of 16 and quarterfinal in virtually every event (she squandered a one-set lead against Svitolina in the 4th round of the French Open). Bencic pulled out of Queen’s with an ankle issue but I’m sure it was mainly precautionary. Bencic, who has reached four grass-court finals in her career, has an aggressive all-court game that is well-suited to these surfaces.
I’m going to stick my neck out on 18-year-old American breakout star Ivo Jovic (perhaps fellow teenager Andreeva’s success has convinced me). Born from parents of Serbian and Croatian heritage, Jovic has received plenty of guidance from Grand Slam icon Novak Djokovic. And the promising young star has flourished over the last 12 months, winning a maiden title in Guadalajara towards before finishing runner-up at this year’s Hobart International. She also showed off her burgeoning Grand Slam bona fides with an excellent quarterfinal run in Melbourne. While she doesn’t have a mammoth amount of grass-court success to speak of, her only WTA 125 victory came at last year’s Ilkay Open (which put her on a path towards Wimbledon qualification).
Longshot Options (21 and higher)- Emma Navarro (23) and Donna Vekic (31)
American Emma Navarro struggled in the early portion of the season, plummeting down the rankings after multiple early exits. But she stabilized with a runner-up finish in Strasbourg and has looked revitalized on the grass, finishing runner-up in Nottingham before going down to Swiatek at Bad Homburg. Navarro has often punched above her weight in these championships, reaching the quarterfinals in 2024 before a run to the round of 16 last year. She is a sharp mover with a drop-shot that can prove devilish on these low-bouncing surfaces.
Big-serving Croat Donna Vekic has enjoyed a remarkable mid-season turnaround. A woefully out of form Vekic fell outside of the top 100 in February. But a semifinal run in Linz was followed by a runner-up finish at the WTA 125 event in Istanbul. She then produced a heroic showing at Queen’s, winning her maiden WTA 500 event as a lucky loser. Despite an early exit in Berlin, Vekic still managed to ninja her way into the seedings at 31. A six-time grass-court finalist and 2024 Wimbledon semi-finalist, Vekic understands all the nuances of these surfaces. She will look to serve big and bank on those flat, penetrating groundstrokes.
