26-year-old Argentine Francisco Cerundolo looks like he is finally set to fulfill his massive potential.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Madrid Masters
Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarterfinals- 1st May
Francisco Cerundolo (20) 0.67 vs Jakub Mensik (22) 1.18
He improved to 23-9 for the season with a comprehensive straight-sets win over top seed Alex Zverev (ending the German’s seven-match winning streak). Cerundolo wore the German down in an error-riddled match, using his thunderous forehand to placate the powerful Zverev. Cerundolo just looks like a different beast this season. He enjoyed a typically profitable South American swing, reaching the final in Buenos Aires and the semifinals in Chile. But he really showed me something else during the ‘Sunshine Double; reaching back-to-back Masters 1000 hardcourt quarterfinals. He underperformed in Monte-Carlo but bounced back with a vengeance in Munich, eventually going down to Ben Shelton in the final four. He has improved his impressive 2025 clay-court record to 15-5 this fortnight, winning all three of his clashes in straight sets. He is set to return to the top 20 next week as he looks to reach a 2nd career Masters 1000 semifinal.
Jakub Mensik was in ruthless mood in his round of 16 clash with Alexander Bublik, firing 10 aces and winning 77% of his first-serve points in a resounding 6-3, 6-2 victory. The hard-hitting Czech is now just the 5th teenager in history to reach the final eight in Madrid. Mensik started the year in so-so fashion but absolutely came to life in Miami, defeating Djokovic in the final to win the first title of his career! Mensik was incredible in Miami, dropping just one set and firing 88 aces in the tournament. He struggled in his 2025 clay-court opener, crashing out to Yannick Hanfmann in Munich. But he seems to have found his range in Madrid, winning all three of his matches in comprehensive straight-sets fashion.
The Verdict: Mensik to win in straight sets at 2.6- Cernudolo leads the head-to-head 1-0, easing past the Czech in straight sets in Beijing last year. Cerundolo will go into this as the favourite after his upset win over top seed Zverev. However, Mensik has been playing some brutal tennis this fortnight and has now won nine straight Masters 1000 matches. I honestly think that Mensik could pummel Cerundolo into submission (regardless of the surface). Mensik hit 19 winners to 10 unforced errors against Bublik and I think he is primed for another big week.
