Russian Daniil Medvedev is in dire need of a spark. The former US Open champion has been one of the most consistent players in the world for the past five years or so.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Madrid Masters
Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarterfinals- 1st May
Daniil Medvedev (9) 1.38 vs Casper Rudd (14) 0.56
However, he hasn’t reached a final in over a year now. In fact, you must go all the way back to the 2023 Rome Masters to find his last title victory. I just think that players have got used to his flat-hitting style, using his deep return position against him. He did show plenty of trademark grit in his round of 16 win over Brandon Nakashima, coming from a set down to reach his 2nd successive Madrid quarterfinal. The result improved Medvedev’s 2025 record to 15-8. He impressed at Indian Wells, reaching the semifinals in agonizingly slow hardcourt conditions. But he fell off badly in the aftermath of that result, facing early eliminations in Miami and Monte-Carlo. These courts really suit Medvedev to the bone. They are quick enough for him to get some purchase on his serve and forehand while slow enough for him to revel in that notoriously deep return position (players need to really penetrate the court if they wish to pass him).
Casper Rudd improved to 15-6 for the season with an excellent 7-5, 6-4 win over American Taylor Fritz. Rudd gave a textbook clay-court performance, absorbing Fritz’s power and returning it with interest, hitting 27 winners to 22 unforced errors in a complete clay-court showing. The result improved his stop-start, injury-affected season to 15-6. Rudd has been a consistent player for some time, reaching 16 finals since the start of 2022. The Norwegian has been particularly effective on clay, winning eleven of his twelve career titles on the sticky stuff. A two-time Roland Garros runner-up, Rudd enjoyed an excellent 2024 European clay-court campaign, reaching three finals (winning titles in Barcelona and Geneva). He is yet to reach a Madrid final (perhaps owing to the slightly quicker conditions here). But he has looked at his best this fortnight, yet to drop a set as he builds towards another Roland Garros tilt.
The Verdict: Rudd to win in straight sets at 1.36- Medvedev leads the head-to-head 3-0. I was quite surprised to learn that they haven’t met since 2021 (crazy considering how many finals these two have competed in over that period). This will be their first ever clay-court meeting. I think that Rudd’s clay-court prowess should come to the fore here. He has looked excellent this week, and his depth and consistency of shot should prevent Medvedev from wrestling away the upper hand.
