Ultimately, last week’s PGA Championship ended up being a bit of a damp squib for European golf enthusiasts, with only Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick managing to crack the top ten.
2024/2025 DP World Tour
Soudal Open
Rinkvin International Golf Club, Antwerp, Belgium
22nd-25th May
Ultimately, last week’s PGA Championship ended up being a bit of a damp squib for European golf enthusiasts, with only Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick managing to crack the top ten. Jon Rahm must still be haunted by his late collapse. The burly Spaniard enjoyed an incredible Sunday surge at Quail Hollow, birdieing three of four holes around the turn to temporarily tie Scottie Scheffler for the lead. He stuttered coming down the stretch, missing back-to-back birdie opportunities on the 14th and 15th to halt any momentum. Those misses affected his confidence and he suffered on the dreaded ‘Green Mile’, playing the infamous closing trio of holes in five-over-par. Scheffler cantered home to victory by five shots, further underlining his status as golf’s most ruthless frontrunner.
The DP World Tour returns this week with the recently reimagined Soudal Open. This is essentially a reconfiguration of the old Belgian Open. The Belgian Open was first staged in 1910, with Frenchman Arnaud Massey- who rose to fame by becoming the first non-Briton to win the Open Championship- winning the inaugural title. It has never been a firmly entrenched part of the European Tour and was staged under the guise of the Belgian Knockout in 2018 and 2019 (it completely disappeared from the roster from 2001 to 2017). 2022 saw the event reestablished as a 72-hole stroke-play contest under its current moniker: the Soudal Open. The event returns to Rinkvin International Golf Club, host of both editions of the Belgian Knockout and the first three editions of the recently rebranded Soudal Open.
Originally designed by Paul Rolin in 1985, the Rinkvin is a parkland layout that alternates between tree-lined holes and more exposed holes. The organizers will once again be utilizing a composite of the North and South courses. This course is almost laughably shot by modern standards, measuring just a smidge under 7,000 yards. The layout is generally flat, with Poa Annua fairways and smaller than average Bentgrass greens. There are some tight fairways that require precision from the tee (all eight of the Belgian Knockout semifinalists were of the surgical variety). But Sam Horsfield’s victory in 2022 seemed to mark a shift away from accuracy (he ranked 5th for Driving Distance and 58th for Driving Accuracy). To be honest, neither of the driving metrics looks particularly important this week. Strong approach play is beneficial given these smaller-than-average green complexes. However, I think that what is done in and around the greens will be critical this week. Horsfield ranked 2nd for Scrambling in 2022 while Forsstrom ranked 1st when winning in 2023. Players are going to miss these greens and will need to show real touch to recover. Putting metrics have also proved important in the relatively small sample size of events played at Rinkvin.
This week’s field is once again lacking in razzmatazz (which has become the norm for 75% of DP World Tour events). Laurie Canter leads the markets despite missing the cut in his last three solo events (that says a lot). Still, he won in Bahrain and finished runner-up at the SA Open. Elsewhere, Haotong Li and Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra have also picked up victories this season and will be desperate to carry on the momentum. Home favourite Thomas Pieters will look to feed off the local support this week. Matt Wallace hung in valiantly at Quail Hollow, eventually settling for a T17 finish. Fellow Englishman Marco Penge also defied expectations in North Carolina, shooting a final round 69 to sneak into the top 30.
Past Winners
2024: Nacho Elvira (-18)
2023: Simon Forsstrom (-17)
2022: Sam Horsfield (-13)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Lauire Canter (20/1), Matt Wallace (22/1), Thomas Pieters (22/1), Jordan Smith (25/1), Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra (28/1)
Value Bets
Guido Migliozzi- To Win (40/1)
Mercurial Italian Guido Migliozzi looks like an excellent midrange option this week. He is a previous winner on this course, winning the quirky Belgian Knockout back in 2019. Migliozzi finished T17 in his most recent DP World tour outing, shooting three bogey-free rounds at the Turkish Airlines Open. He also sits on the cusp of US Open qualification, shooting rounds of 67 and 68 at Walton Heath on Monday (where has made 11 birdies and two eagles). Migliozzi has failed to deliver on his massive potential, but his game appears to be in good shape this week.
Matteo Manassero- To Win (60/1)
Italian Matteo Manassero enjoyed a fantastic 2024 campaign, winning his first title in eleven years at the Jonsson Workwear Open. But he also flourished in high-quality fields, finishing solo 3rd at the Irish Open and T4 at the BMW PGA Championship. The Italian has been dutifully plying his trade in the States this year, making the cut in eight out of eleven starts (this despite having one of the weakest drivers on the tour). Luckily, I don’t think that driving will be a major determinant this week. Also, Manassero finished in a tie for 13th on debut last season, just five shots behind eventual winner Nacho Elvira.
The Man to Beat- Marco Penge- To Win (40/1)
27-year-old Englishman Marco Penge looks like incredible value at 40/1. Sure, he did miss the cut here last year. But he has come a long way since then, winning his maiden DP World Tour title at the recent Hainan Classic (he also finished solo 3rd at the SA Open). Big-hitting Penge played some unbelievably consistent golf at Quail Hollow, finishing in a tie for 28th in his maiden US Major. There could be some issues considering the quick turnaround from last week’s exertions at Quail Hollow. Still, Penge is playing some classy golf and should thrive in a middling field.
