While only one side in the history of the Rugby World Cup has ever won the tournament after losing a game, the Springboks may not be that crestfallen with their defeat to the Irish for a variety of reasons.
Firstly, the South Africans are the only side to win a tournament after suffering a pool phase defeat, with the Springboks bouncing back from a 23-13 opening pool game loss to arch rivals New Zealand to claim honours in Japan.
The loss actually provided them with an easier path to the finals as they met Japan in the quarters and then Wales in the semis while New Zealand played Ireland in the quarters – whom they routinely thrashed but were still knocked about a bit – and then came unstuck against the English in the semi-finals, who beat them 19-7.
The Springboks may now have the easier path to the final. I know this sounds a bit absurd considering they still have a quarter-final clash with the French but the tournament hosts are missing some key players. Yes, there is talk of skipper Antoine Dupont wearing a face mask to protect a broken cheek while he returns for the play-offs, but even if the French medical team somehow deem him fit to play a quarter-final, I just can’t see him having as big an impact as he would have had he been injury free.
The Toulouse nine is the heart and soul of this French side, and while they do have a deep squad and some quality nines in reserve, none of them is capable of delivering the displays the 2021 World Rugby Player of the Year can.
The more likely scenario for Dupont is that he misses the quarters and makes the semis, so playing the French sans a more fit Dupont is probably something of a coup.
Another reason I think the South Africans can consider themselves somewhat fortunate is that they won’t face the Kiwis until the final should their old foes advance that far. While New Zealand are far from the all-conquering side of yesteryear and they were hammered by the Springboks just before the World Cup, the Kiwis have a very healthy record against the South Africans at recent showpiece tournaments beating them in the 2015 and 2019 Rugby World Cups.
Ireland do seem to have the All Blacks number at the minute, however, with the men in green having won four of the last six clashes between the sides so South Africa could well avoid their Southern Hemisphere rivals this time around.
Should the South Africans get one over Le Bleu then a semi-final date with England or Fiji. And here’s where this little piece of mine takes something of a twist with a final against the Irish a real possibility.
Darry’s Breakdown
Q1: Wales v Arg (Winner Pool C v Runner-Up Pool D)
Q2: Ireland v NZ (Winner Pool B v Runner-Up Pool A)
Q3: ENG v FIJ (Winner Pool D v Runner-Up Pool C)
Q4: SA v Fra (Winner Pool A v Runner-Up Pool B)
Semi 1: Wales v Ireland (Winner Q1 v Winner Q2
Semi 2: Eng v SA (Winner Q3 v Winner Q4)
Final: Ireland v South Africa (Winner Semi 1 v Winner Semi 2)
While South Africa were beaten by the Irish this weekend, the men from the ‘Emerald Aisle’ were by no means comfortable victors. In fact, at the risk of sounding like the horde of Springbok fans who frequent the comments section of rugby websites saying how they were screwed over by the officials, cheating opponents or the length of the grass, I do think things were pretty even in the fixture apart from the goal kicking stats. which were dominated by Johnny Sexton as both Faf de Klerk and Mannie Libbok left their kicking boots at home again.
And here’s where things change up a bit. Handre Pollard is back with the Springbok squad and is likely to get a run against Tonga this coming weekend, and by the time the quarter-finals roll around the 2019 World Cup winner should be fit and firing. While he has had a lot of time off through injury, he is the best goal-kicking option the Springboks have and he’s unlikely to miss out on 11-points in a play-off game.
Look, in all honesty, this entire piece is essentially amateur crystal ball gazing and could be derailed in a fortnight’s time should Scotland do the almost unthinkable and beat the Irish on the final weekend of the pool phase fixtures. Antoine Dupont could also rise like Lazarus and put in a monster quarter-final shift while acting as a doppelganger for the ‘Man in the Iron Mask’.
I do personally feel that the Springboks have benefitted from the Irish loss. It’s a wake call for both the coaching staff – especially those ones overseeing the goal kicking – as well as the players. And a very timely one at that considering how hot the Springboks fired with their 7-1 split against the All Blacks at Twickenham.
