Viktor Hovland won last week’s Valspar Championship in dramatic fashion, reining in Justin Thomas to win his first PGA Tour title since those back-to-back FedEx Cup Playoff victories back in 2023.
2025 US PGA Tour
Texas Children’s Houston Open
Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas
28th-31st March
Hovland won the 2023 FedEx Cup but still felt that something was missing in his game. He has tinkered relentlessly since then, going through swing coaches like Lady Gaga goes through wardrobe changes. This victory will come as some measure of validation for the Norwegian (especially with Augusta looming). The tour now moves to the Lone Star State for the latest renewal of the Texas Children’s Houston Open. This event originated in 1946, where Byron Nelson saw off Ben Hogan in a clash of true golfing heavyweights. It has gone through various ups and downs since then, becoming the Masters tune-up event back in 2007. It moved to the fall schedule in 2019 to accommodate the migration of the US PGA Championship. It was absent from the 2023 calendar but returned last year to a more familiar spot in the calendar.
Originally designed by John Bredemus, Memorial Park Golf Course is a parkland course that will host this event for the 5th successive season. Tom Doak- working in collaboration with Brooks Koepka- completely reconfigured the layout in 2019. They reduced the bunkering significantly, opting to create dramatic runoff areas besides the Bermuda greens. These runoff areas pose a far greater risk to your average professional than a greenside bunker (it makes for quite a nice dress rehearsal for the scrambling test faced at Augusta). The par 70 measures over 7,400 yards and includes three intimidating par 3’s that measure over 200 yards. I would probably tend to favour distance over accuracy this week. But putting has proven to be the best indicator of success around Memorial Park, with each of the last four winners ranking inside the top five for SG: Putting. This event has evolved into one of the tougher tests out there and I’m looking forward to some gritty golf this week.
World No’s 1 and 2 are in action this week, with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy looking to get in one final tune-up for the upcoming Masters. Scheffler is a two-time runner-up in this event, missing a short putt on the 72nd hole to miss out on a playoff last season. He has just finished outside the top ten in consecutive events for the first time since the summer of 2023. On the other hand, McIlroy is flying, already clinching victories at two iconic American courses: Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass. Aaron Rai has been a bastion of consistency in recent weeks, finishing in the top 15 in each of his last three outings. J.J. Spaun returns to action after capitulating against Rory in that three-hole Sawgrass playoff. Jacob Bridgeman was in fine form at Copperhead while Stephan Jaegar returns to defend his title.
Past Winners
2024: Stephan Jaeger (-12)
2023: no event
2022: Tony Finau (-16)
2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)
2019: Lanto Griffin (-14)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (7/2), Rory McIlroy (13/2), Aaron Rai (25/1), J.J. Spaun (28/1), Davis Thompson (30/1)
Value Bets
Taylor Moore- To Win (60/1)
Taylor Moore won his maiden title at the 2023 Valspar Championship, securing a place at the 2023 Masters (where he finished 39th). He improved to a top 20 finish at Augusta last year and he will be desperate for a 3rd consecutive trip to Magnolia Lane. Moore has been in steady form this season, making the cut in seven of nine events (including top ten finishes at the American Express and Phoenix Open). He was T33 at TPC Sawgrass but disappointingly missed the cut at Copperhead. But this course is far better suited to the Dallas resident (as evidenced by his T2 finish last year). He is long off the tee and tends to putt well on Bermuda greens.
Min Woo Lee- To Win (40/1)
Min Woo Lee found himself in the final group at the Players two Saturday’s ago, faltering poorly in contention to settle for a T20 finish. His iron play just isn’t at the level required to compete at a course such as TPC Sawgrass. Memorial Park Golf Course seems perfectly tailored to his skillset. The Aussie has an excellent combination of length off the tee and soft hands in and round the greens (there will be plenty of tight lies out there). He has finished inside the top 20 in five of seven starts this season, gaining strokes with the putter in six of those starts.
The Man to Beat- Aaron Rai- To Win (25/1)
I’m going to skip McIlroy and Scheffler this week. Their prices aren’t appealing, and they will both be using this as a glorified warmup session for Augusta. Aaron Rai has built up some real momentum in recent weeks, coming into this event off the back of three successive top 15 finishes. He tied for 14th last time out at the Players and he should be primed for a strong showing this week. The man with two gloves, Aaron Rai has also finished T7 here in each of the last two seasons.
