This should be an intriguing round of 16 clash, with the out of form Bublik coming up against hometown hero- and soon to be ex-pro- Richard Gasquet. One of the hardest guys to predict with any certainty, Alexader Bublik is fresh off a disappointing 2024 campaign.
2025 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Open 13
Palais des sports de Marseille, Marseille, France (Indoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 11th February
Alexander Bublik (71/100) vs Richard Gasquet (11/10)
The big-hitting Kazakh ended the year with a 24-28 record (this despite finishing runner-up at the ATP 500 event in Dubai). He started this year in similarly downbeat fashion, bringing a poor 1-4 record into this week’s event. However, it would be silly to write the mercurial Kazakh off: Bublik has reached nine ATP finals since the beginning of 2021. He just possesses that inalienable ability to reach a final out of seemingly nowhere. He has also played his most consistent tennis on indoor hardcourts, with his brand of aggressive, first-strike tennis helping him reach five indoor finals (three of which he has won). Interestingly, three of those indoor finals have come in France (he won his 2nd Montpelier title last year).
Set to retire at the conclusion of this year’s French Open, beloved French stalwart Gasquet is approaching the final stages of his prolonged farewell tour. The 16-time ATP champion has been one of the most aesthetically pleasing players of his generation (that single-handed backhand is still a joy to behold). But time has unfortunately caught up with the boyish-looking Frenchman. Turning 39 in June, Gasquet hasn’t won back-to-back tour-level matches in five months. He did pick up a win over compatriot Adrian Mannarino in Marseille (though that probably has more to say about Mannarino’s current career nosedive). I don’t think that Gasquet is likely to get a late-career bump in Marseille (this is the one French indoor event where he has not reached a final). Having said that, Bublik is in a slump of his own and Gasquet will look to prey on his erratic tendencies.
The Verdict: Bublik to win in straight sets at 33/20- I was surprised to discover that this will be their first meeting (especially considering the amount of indoor tennis that both guys have played). I think that Gasquet is going to struggle to contain Bublik’s power on these surfaces. This is exactly the type of event where Bublik will suddenly emerge from apparent dormancy.
Nuno Borges (8) (77/100) vs Stan Wawrinka (1/1)
World No.37 Nuno Borges will take on the 155th ranked Stan Wawrinka in this interesting Marseille opener. 27-year-old Portuguese player Nuno Borges has been a prototypical clay-court specialist for much of his career, winning his maiden ATP Tour title at last year’s Swedish Open (beating clay-court demigod Rafa Nadal in the final). However, the hard-working baseliner has evolved on
hardcourts in the last 18 months or so, reaching the 4th round at both of last year’s hardcourt slams. He started this season in similarly upbeat hardcourt form, reaching the semifinals in Auckland before pushing Alcaraz to four sets on their Aussie Open 3rd round meeting. The former NCAA runner-up entered the top 30 for the first time in his career last year and will be looking to get back there as soon as possible.
It feels like the sterling career of Stan Wawrinka is fast approaching its end. The 39-year-old Swiss still loves to compete and has been publicly bullish regarding any retirement talk. But he is currently on a five-match losing streak that dating back to last year’s Bratislava Open. To be fair, he has had some tough draws this year. He ran into an inspired Lorenzo Sonego in Melbourne, losing in four sets to the eventual quarterfinalist. He also went down to Daniil Medvedev in Rotterdam last week, blowing a one-set lead against the permanently grouchy Russian. The three-time Grand Slam champion is just struggling to maintain a high level for the full duration of matches (which isn’t surprising at his age). Also, Wawrinka hasn’t reached an indoor final in six years. This is going to be a real test for the veteran Swiss.
The Verdict: Wawrinka to win in three at 34/10- Borges leads the head-to-head 1-0, taking down Wawrinka on the Bucharest clay last year. I just have a sneaking suspicion that Wawrinka may be able to finally win his first 2025 match here. He looked excellent in the early stages of his match against Medvedev, moving well as he kept the points concise and clean. I think the quicker indoor conditions probably suit him at this point in his career.
