Emma Navarro will be making her first appearance since her comprehensive (and controversial) straight-sets Aussie Open quarterfinal defeat to Iga Swiatek. The American enjoyed a breakthrough 2024 campaign, yielding an impressive win-loss record of 54-24.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Qatar Open
Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex, Doha, Qatar (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 11th February
Emma Navarro (8) (86/100) vs Leylah Fernandez (92/100)
Emma Navarro will be making her first appearance since her comprehensive (and controversial) straight-sets Aussie Open quarterfinal defeat to Iga Swiatek. The American enjoyed a breakthrough 2024 campaign, yielding an impressive win-loss record of 54-24. Navarro is a nuggety player, relying on brilliant footwork and variety to smother her opponents. And she was in typically pugnacious mood in Melbourne, winning her first four matches in three sets to advance to a maiden Aussie Open quarterfinal. She was, however, outclassed in the quarterfinals, with Swiatek’s brand of merciless first-strike tennis too much for her to handle. Having said that, Navarro was on the receiving end of an awful piece of officiating when the game was tied 2-2 in the 2nd. The umpire missed a clear double-bounce on Swiatek’s side, and then adjudged the American to have reacted too late to challenge the decision. Now, I don’t think that one call would have changed the trajectory of the match; but you could tell that Navarro was rankled by the minor injustice. In any event, Navarro will be looking to maintain her momentum in this first WTA 1000 event of the season.
Canadian Leylah Fernandez almost set herself up for failure with that runner-up finish at the 2021 US Open. But she- unlike champ Radacanu- has managed to become a consistent presence on the tour, compiling a solid 31-24 record last season. She arrived at this year’s Qatar Open in decent form, reaching back-to-back quarterfinals at the Aussie and Abu Dhabi Opens. And she was in devastating form in her first-round clash, thrashing Greet Minnen 6-1, 6-2. Fernandez won 77% of her first serve points in her opener, firing three aces in a solid serving display. Lefty Fernandez has a devastating forehand and excellent court coverage (both of which helped guide her to a quarterfinal last season). She has had some serving issues of late, throwing in 18 double-faults in her three matches in Abu Dhabi last week. Can she stabilize those serving issues to cause an upset against Navarro?
The Verdict: Fernandez to win in three at 37/10- Fernandez leads the head-to-head 2-1, beating Navarro in their most recent meeting at the 2023 Guadalajara Open. I think that Fernandez is decent value for an upset here (especially if she keeps those double-faults down). I think that her serving display against Minnen is an encouraging sign. That- combined with her positive record against Navarro- makes her an attractive bet to win in three.
Jasmine Paolini (4) (37/100) vs Caroline Garcia (2/1)
A two-time Grand Slam finalist last season, Italian Jasmine Paolini will be making her first appearance since a dispiriting 3rd round Aussie Open defeat to Elina Svitolina. She went into that 3rd round clash in supreme form, dropping just nine games in her first two matches. And she got off to the perfect start, dominating a passive Svitolina to claim the first set. But she struggled as the Ukrainian upped the aggression, losing a tight 2nd set before being unceremoniously bageled in the decider. It was a harsh comedown for a player who has been flying high for the last 12 months. Paolini was incredible last seeing, reaching the French Open and Wimbledon finals whilst winning a WTA 1000 event in Dubai (which obviously augers well for success in this event). Has the Italian possibly run out of gas after what was a brutally exhausting 2024 campaign?
French hardcourt specialist Carolina Garcia will be looking to move beyond the round of 32 for just the 2nd in her last eight tournaments on tour (she reached the semifinals in Guadalajara towards the end of last season). She brought her 2024 season to a premature close in September, citing anxiety and panic attacks. The 31-year-old Frenchwoman didn’t hit the ground running in 2025, facing back-to-back first-round exits at the Aussie and Abi Dhabi Opens. But she did just pick up her first win of the year, taking down Yue Yuan in straight sets. Garcia will feel buoyed by her serving display: she notched up three aces and won 74% of her first-serve points. Can Garcia rediscover the form that made her one of the best hardcourt players in the world just a few years back? Lest we forget, she won both the Cincinnati Open and WTA Finals back in 2022. She plays an aggressive brand of tennis and may just need a run of successive wins to click back into gear.
The Verdict: Garcia to win in straight sets at 42/10- Garcia dominated the early part of this rivalry, winning their first four matches. However, the Italian has won three of their last four meetings, winning their most recent meeting at last year’s Madrid Open. I think this has potential upset written all over it. Paolini has been in middling form dating back to the end of last year. Garcia is a dangerous hardcourt operator just waiting to rediscover her potential. I think Garcia has the potential to dominate Paolini on serve (as she did in her early meetings).
