This must be the most enticing of the first round encounters this week.
2025 ATP Tour
ATP 500
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament (Rotterdam Open)
Rotterdam Ahoy, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Indoor Hardcourts)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 4th-5th February 4, 2025
4th February
Holger Rune (5) (41/100) vs Lorenzo Sonego (37/20)
Holger Rune has had his critics these past few years (me included). The temperamental Dane has made way too many coaching changes these past few seasons, attempting to remove blame from his own poor performances. But the uber-talented Rune started to find his rhythm in the latter portion of 2024, reaching the semifinals in four of his last seven outings (two of which being Masters 1000 events). He also impressed in this year’s Aussie Open, pushing eventual champ Jannik Sinner to four sets in a competitive 4th round clash. Rune has proven to be an astute indoor operator in the past, reaching four of his first five finals on indoor surfaces. He won the most important title of his career on indoor hardcourts, taking down Novak Djokovic in three sets to claim the 2022 Paris Masters crown.
Lorenzo Sonego turned out to be one of the true surprise packages of this year’s Aussie Open, producing some wonderfully entertaining tennis en route to a quarterfinal finish. In fact, he probably produced two of the greatest points in the entire championships. The result vaulted him to 34 in the world. But it hasn’t all been rainbows and butterflies for the mercurial Italian. Melbourne marked the first time since last year’s Winston Salem Open (which he won) that he was victorious in back-to-back tour-level matches! That is insane when you look at his pure ability. Sonego has a strong serve and a dominant forehand. He also possesses excellent grit and deft touch at the net. I just think that he is occasionally more interested in hitting unbelievable winners than playing winning tennis. In any event, Sonego does have some indoor pedigree to his name, finishing runner-up at the 2020 Vienna Open before claiming the 2022 Moselle title.
The Verdict: Rune to win in three at 51/20- Rune leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning two keenly fought three-set thrillers (both coming on indoor hardcourts). This could be a tight match, and I foresee a few insane rallies. I ultimately think that Rune’s greater consistency should give him the edge in three. Sonego may have periods of dominance (he may just nick a set). But Rune is looking more like late-2022 Rune and I think he will have to much for the erratic Italian.
5th February
Matteo Berrettini (13/20) vs Tallon Griekspoor (12/10)
This could prove to be a pivotal season in the career of Matteo Berrettini. The former World No.6 has been a perennial Grand Slam threat these past six years or so (he ended up finishing runner-up at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships). But injuries have consistently loomed large in his career. However, he did manage to string together some consistent tennis last year, returning from injury to compete in four minor finals (winning three of them). He managed to worm his way back into the top 40 despite indifferent results at Grand Slam level. He is 1-2 this season, going out in four sets to Holger Rune in the 2nd round of the Aussie Open. Berrettini- a 16-time ATP Tour finalist- is yet to reach a final on indoor hardcourts. I find that quite surprising given his massive serve and forehand combination. Could this be the week that he finally makes some inroads on indoor surfaces?
28-year-old Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor is an aggressive player with a solid serve and exacting forehand. He reached as high as 21 in the world back in 2023 (a year in which he reached three ATP Finals, winning two). He ended his humdrum 20024 campaign with a record of 33-30 (though he did help the Netherlands reach their first ever Davis Cup final). He started his 2025 campaign in predictable fashion, going out to big-hitting Pole Hubert Hurkacz in straight-sets in their first-round Aussie Open clash. But he looked more composed in Montpelier, reaching the quarterfinals to underline his solid indoor skills. Griekspoor has some solid history in this event, reaching back-to-back semifinals in 2022 and 2023 (losing to current World No.1 Jannik Sinner on both occasions).
The Verdict: Griekspoor to win in straight sets at 28/10- This will be their first career meeting. I really think that Griekspoor could cause a surprise here. He returns well on indoor surfaces and could rush Berrettini if he gets a read on his delivery.
