Defending Abu Dhabi champ Elena Rybakina arrives amid some controversy. The former Wimbledon champ parted ways with Goran Ivanisevic in the aftermath of her 4th round Aussie Open exit.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 500
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open
Zayed Sports City International Tennis Centre, Abu Dhabi, UAE (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 5th February
Elena Rybakina (1) (1/10) vs Katie Volynets (56/10)
She has announced a new partnership with Davide Sanguinetti but has expressed discontent with the treatment of former coach Stefano Vukov (suspended by the Tour for allegedly breaching their code of conduct). In any event, Rybakina will look to put the off-court drama to one side as she looks to defend her title. Rybakina enjoyed an extremely solid 2024 campaign, winning three titles and accumulating a 42-11 record for the season. The big-serving Kazakh suffered with injuries in the latter part of the campaign, forced to withdraw from the US Open and subsequent Asian Swing to recuperate from a back injury. She looked to be back to something resembling her best in Melbourne, bowing out to eventual champ Madison Keys in a tough 4th round clash.
First up for Rybakina will be the woman with arguably the most appropriate name in woman’s tennis: Katie Volynets. The 23-year-old American is still yet to reach a WTA Tour final in her career (though she did win a maiden Challenger event in the middle of last year). She made some incremental progress during last season, breaking into the top 60 courtesy of two WTA 1000 3rd round appearances. She actually started this season in relatively decent nick, reaching the quarterfinals in Auckland. But she came into this week’s Abu Dhabi Open on a three-match tour-level losing streak. She had to come through qualifying this week (taking down Heather Watson and Daria Saville in the preliminary stages). She broke her three-match tour-level losing streak with a come-from-behind victory over Brit Sonay Kartal. It was a true seesaw affair, with both players struggling to gain any traction on serve. In fact, Volynets could only managed to win 54% of her first-serve points. She needs to drastically improve those stats if she stands any chance against the World No.5
The Verdict: Rybakina to win in straight sets at 34/100- Rybakina unsurprisingly leads the head-to-head 1-0, easing past the American in straight sets at the 2022 French Open. There is just no way I can spin his. I could argue that Rybakina may be distracted by off-court issues. But she is a determined character who will just barrel through this match. Perhaps opting for under 17.5 games at 5/4 could offer some value.
Daria Kasatkina (3) (48/100) vs Ashlynn Krueger (16/10)
3rd seed Daria Kasatkina has also had her own little bout of (possibly accidental) controversy. The Russian was wrongly represented by a Spanish flag at the Abu Dhabi draw ceremony. Many felt that this could be a switch in allegiance: Kasatkina has been very much against the Ukraine war and has also been an outspoken critic of Russia’s LGBT rules. However, organizers have suggested it was little more than an innocent error. In any event, Kasatkina will be looking to finally secure this title after finishing runner-up to Rybakina last season. Kasatkina enjoyed great consistency last season, winning two titles in six WTA 500 final appearances (reaching finals on all three surfaces). She is a crafty player who is able to adjust to the demands of all three surfaces. She has struggled against the more elite players, winning just one game against Swiatek in her match at the WTA Finals (she was playing as an alternate). She comes into this event in decent form, going out to Emma Navarro in the 4th round of the Aussie Open.
20-year-old American Ashlynn Krueger could be a dangerous opponent this week. She recently made her top 50 debut after back-to-back quarterfinal appearances in Brisbane and Adelaide. She has, as Lyndsay Davenport described, easy power, using her long levers to hit with brilliant depth. She has a solid serve and doesn’t mind finishing points off at the net. The 2023 Japan Open champion still needs to work on consistency. She had her struggles in her Abu Dhabi opener, fighting off a spirted challenge from compatriot Maxine Kessler to prevail in three sets. She served well in the match, winning 71% of her first-serve points (with six aces and seven double faults). She does occasionally go for a little too much on that 2nd delivery.
The Verdict: Krueger to win in three at 5/1- Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 2-0, twice overcoming the American on last year’s tour. In fact, she won in straight sets on these very surfaces (while Krueger would push the Russian to three at the Charleston Open). You have to back the underdog from time to time. Krueger has looked in solid form this season and will know what to expect from the Russian. She just needs to keep that first-serve percentage up and really commit to her forehand.
