Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Monday’s racing coming your way from Armidale on 20 February 2023.
Best Bet: TIMELY BEL (Race 7)
Value Bet: SURE STRATEGY (Race 4)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
7 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
4 | 4 | 8 |
Cost: R54.00
Race 4
The day’s value bet, SURE STRATEGY is a 5yr old mare taking on the boys and has finished second in her last two starts, the latest over a mile, 1.8L behind the winner. She overraced in the middle stages that day and came three wide approaching the home turn, but still managed to stay on well over the closing stages. She gets draw five and will have 3kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice and will be hoping to go one better today.
GOLD MERCHANT won his maiden race at the second time of asking, over 1700M by 1.2L. He delivered a powerful finish on that occasion, suggesting that the extra ground on offer today will be to his liking. The form of that last race has been franked and from gate seven, he should be right up there when they hit the line.
SO AND SO is the stable companion to the latter and has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three runs, the latest when fifth over ten furlongs, 2.3L adrift of the victor. He has cracked pole position and makes a solid backup for the yard.
Race 5
KOONDEEMAN won over this trip three runs back and then finished second over the same journey in his penultimate run and then a somewhat disappointing seventh last time out over seven furlongs, 3.2L off the winner, but that was in very heavy going and he had to be held up several times in the home straight. The form of that race has been franked and from a handy draw three, he looks to be the one to side with here.
FIGHT ON SHADES had consistent formlines to his name prior to disappointing in his latest outing over a mile, finishing just over four and a half lengths behind the winner. He was slow away on that occasion, but did not really quicken in the home stretch. He faces a wide draw ten, but on the plus side, he will get 3kgs removed from his allocated weight courtesy of his claiming apprentice and could also do better over what appears to be a more suitable distance.
INDIAN THUNDER has finished second in his last three runs, the latest over 1312M, just under a half-length behind the winner. The gelding was hampered at the 300M mark, but struck the front at the 200M pole, only to be run out of it late. He will have to negotiate draw eight, but he will have a similar 3kgs taken off his back for the services of his claiming apprentice to aid his cause.
Race 6
A 3yr and 4yr old filly as well as a 5yr old mare could fight out the finish to this race and complete the trifecta, but XEIBY is taken to lead the field home. She won her debut over 1100M by a head when racing up with the pace and battling all the way down to the wire. She would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected, she could be the one that they all have to beat. She will have to overcome a wide draw eleven, but she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
ZALINI is the stable mate to the top choice and has consistent formlines to her name, finishing second last time out over five furlongs, just over a length and a half back from the winner. That was her first run for her new trainer and she makes a genuine backup for the yard.
NO FILTER hung in from the 200M mark when finishing second in her latest start over five furlongs, just under two and a half lengths adrift of the victor. She jumps from a useful gate three and should be included in all bets.
Race 7
TIMELY BEL is a 6yr old mare taking on males, but she has won two of her last four outings, the latest over six furlongs, albeit by just a short-head. She showed plenty of toe that day and whilst drawn wideish in gate seven, she will have 4kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice and is likely to adopt the same frontrunning tactics here. She could prove hard to reel in over the latter stages and as such, she is made the best bet on the day’s program.
SPANISH MISSILE goes for his hat-trick after two victories over five furlongs, the latest by a neck. He sat just behind the leader that day, but then finished the better over the closing stages. From his kinder draw two, he could emerge as the biggest danger to the top pick.
LAVISH LADY is a 5yr old mare who followed up her penultimate run victory over five furlongs with a seventh-place finish next time out over the same sprint trip, six lengths back from the winner, but she raced wide without cover in the race and had to be eased at the 300M pole, so that run is probably best ignored. She will have to overcome a wide draw eleven, but she will have 2kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice and should be involved in the finish.
