Will a Connacht outfit that has won seven of its last eight URC matches have what it takes to upset log-leaders Glasgow Warriors at Scotstoun Stadium in their quarterfinal clash on Friday?
To Win
Glasgow Warriors | Draw | Connacht
Handicap
Glasgow Warriors | Connacht
Match context
The Western Irish outfit have well and truly clicked under Stuart Lancaster in the backend of their season and remain the ultimate dark horses to go on and win the URC from here. While they may have been somewhat inconsistent when the former England boss first took over at the beginning of the campaign, their understanding of what the 56-year-old is wanting to achieve gameplan-wise has taken on a new level in 2026.
Connacht sat outside the top eight for most of the season but their final round 26-5 win in Edinburgh saw them ultimately lock down that coveted eighth-place position at the expense of northern rivals Ulster. That means their reward is this trip to Glasgow to take on a Warriors outfit that they managed to beat 15-10 in Galway at the end of February.
If this game was played purely on paper, you’d have to think the hosts would take it with ease given the calibre of players on their payroll. In reality though, the Connacht have all the belief and momentum required to potentially cause a huge shock and completely change the context and texture of the competition heading into the semi-finals.
Franco Smith’s charges’ 40-17 home win over Cardiff and 26-22 result at Ulster in the penultimate final rounds of action ensured they finished top of the pops in the URC for the first time. And with a potential home semi-final and Grand Final in their orbit, the hunger and desire will certainly be felt by the players.
They’ve had to experience the pain of having their European ambitions dashed for another season but backing up their URC championship win of 2024 with another this term will be a good consolation.
In team news, the return to training of Scotland internationals Jamie Dobie and Scott Cummings, both of whom have been out injured since the Six Nations, will be a big boost to Warriors, though Huw Jones and Gregor Brown are set to miss out.
For Connacht, Mack Hansen, among others, is still sidelined, but Caolin Blade, Dylan Tierney-Martin and Finn Treacy are back in training and could be in line for selection.
Players to watch
Dan Lancaster/ Adam Hastings (Glasgow Warriors)
One of the most interesting subplots of the weekend will be the head-to-head between Glasgow flyhalf Dan Lancaster and his father, Stuart. The 25-year-old journeyman, who was born in Leeds and has thus far represented England U20, Scotland ‘A’, Leicester Tigers and Racing 92, will have a pivotal role to play against his old man should he get the nod at 10 this weekend.
He ran out in Warriors’ wins over Cardiff and Ulster, though Adam Hastings’ potential return could throw a spanner in the works. Hastings has been out for a spell but could make his return, but regardless of who plays flyhalf for Warriors, the performance must be accurate and clinical in the face of this Connacht side.
Finlay Bealham (Connacht)
Connacht need their experienced players to step up massively if they are to have a shot at the Scotstoun, and Bealham will be huge in this regard. Warriors’ driving maul is one of the best in the game, and the Ireland international needs to lead the way in terms of shutting down and negating this aspect of play.
If the 34-year-old can prevent Glasgow from finding their rhythm and perhaps put a dent in the hosts’ scrum, he will be giving his teammates a big foothold in the game
Tactical overview
If they’re at their best, Connacht’s aggression and in-your-face style has the potential to cause Glasgow all kinds of problems, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see their back five making absolute nuisances of themselves at the set piece and breakdown. Warriors are incredibly efficient in building an innings within a game and working effectively to gradually earn control; something the visitors will need to sabotage at all costs.
The coaching contest between Smith and Lancaster is also set to be an absorbing one, with two of the competition’s very best tacticians looking to outwit each other. The latter has made tremendous strides in Galway since taking over at the helm, and it appears as though the longer he stays, the more potent his team will become.
All the pressure and expectation is on Glasgow this weekend after having finished first, and this could make them ripe for the plucking for this high-on-confidence Connacht side, who’ve got nothing really to lose.
Prediction
Connacht to win it on the board and dump the log-leaders out of the tournament in shocking style.
