With the first round of this year’s French Open one and dusted, I thought it a good time to take a quick gauge of how the top players are doing thus far.
What better way to do that than by looking at the biggest shocks thus far. I am not basing this list purely on seedings (9th seeded Alexander Bublik being ousted is never going to count as a surprise on these surfaces). These are results that forced me to do a quick double-take when I happened upon them.
5. Linda Noskova (12) lost to Maria Sakkari (7-5, 7-5)
The normally volatile women’s draw provided fewer Bona fide shocks than usual (one big one notwithstanding). Ekaterina Alexandrova has been in abysmal form, and I never found it the least bit shocking that she was ousted by clay-court specialist Osorio. Former French Open champ Krejcikova simply never had enough tennis under her belt when she squared off against Baptiste. But did anyone really see Noskova losing to Sakkari? Granted, Noskova certainly prefers the quicker surfaces. But she has enjoyed an extremely consistent season to date, reaching the semifinals at Indian Wells before back-to-back quarterfinals runs in Stuttgart and Madrid (where she accounted for reigning French Open queen Gauff). It’s just jarring to see her fall to Maria Sakkari. The former World No.3 has been in the tennis wilderness for some time, eliminated in the 1st round in each of her previous three French Open appearances.
4. Taylor Fritz (7) lost to Nishesh Basavareddy (7-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-1)
While technically a massive surprise on paper, this wouldn’t have come as an earth-shattering shock to anyone with more than a passing interest in the game. Taylor Fritz has always struggled on the sticky stuff, failing to progress beyond the 4th round at Roland Garros throughout his career. He was dumped out in the first-round last season and came into this year’s renewal severely undercooked, playing just one clay-court match in Geneva (which he lost) after spending two months on the sideline with a knee issue. To be fair, Fritz played alright against compatriot Basavareddy but was just outdone by his compatriot’s inch-perfect use of the drop shot. On the bright side, he won’t have to explain to Morgan Riddle that her two-week photo op is over. Too soon?
3. Jiri Lehecka (12) lost to Pablo Carreno Busta (6-3, 7-6, 6-3)
For me, Jiri Lehecka’s loss to veteran Pablo Carreno Busta was far more surprising than the Fritz result. Jiri Lehecka appeared to be gearing up nicely for Roland Garros, finishing runner-up in Miami before a quarterfinal run in Madrid. While he doesn’t possess a stellar Roland Garros record, a semifinal run at the 2024 Madrid Open speaks to his ability to adapt to clay. But he got unceremoniously blown out of the water by 34-year-old Spainard Pablo Carreno Busta (who only won one tour-level clay-court match coming into this tournament). With Fils withdrawing and Fritz and Lehecka defeated, teenage sensation Rafael Jodar suddenly looks a real danger in this quarter of the draw.
2. Daniil Medvedev (6) lost to Adam Walton (6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 1-6, 6-4)
Medvedev’s torrid Roland Garros record took another dent yesterday, as he notched up a 7th first-round defeat in ten appearances after a dispiriting five-set defeat to Aussie Adam Walton. It felt like Medvedev was primed for a meaningful Paris run. Sure, Berrettini handed him the dreaded double-bagel in Monte-Carlo. I put that down to Medvedev adjusting after his successful opening stint on the hardcourts (he reached three finals, notably finishing runner-up in Indian Wells). I just liked the positivity he showed in his semifinal run in Rome. But Meddy was up to his old tricks again against Walton, hitting 54 winners and 54 unforced errors in a rollercoaster showing that lurched from brilliance to mediocrity (or perhaps Meddy-ocrity) on a set-by-set basis.
1. Jessica Pegula lost to Kimberly Birrell (1-6, 6-3, 6-3)
But this must be the shock of the tournament this far (and that’s coming from someone who didn’t even rate Pegula’s chances this year). Pegula, who reached the semifinals in each of her last two slams, just suffered her earliest exit in Paris since 2020, going down to World No.83 Kimberly Birrell. The 5th seeded Charleston champ appeared to be cruising after winning the first set 6-1. But the Aussie let go of all inhibitions in the final two sets, upping the aggression and forcing Pegula into a litany of errors. It was a mammoth result for the Aussie, who only had two previous wins against top ten players (both of which came in her home country). It also marks the first time she has progressed beyond the first round of a slam since the 2023 Aussie Open!
