The stage is well and truly set, with World No.1 Sabalenka to face Elena Rybakina in this year’s Aussie Open final (a rematch of the 2023 final won by Sabalenka).
Two-time Aussie Open champ Sabalenka was once again in blistering form, overcoming Elina Svitolina in a match awash with political undertones. Ukrainian Svitolina eschewed both the pre-match photograph and post-match handshake, showing solidarity against Belarusian involvement in the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. The snub just seemed to fuel the Sabalenka machine, as the Belarusian played nearly faultless tennis en route to a commanding 6-2, 6-3 victory. Next up she will face reigning WTA Finals champ Elena Rybakina, who had to weather a committed fightback from Jessica Pegula to prevail 6-3, 7-6 in their semifinal battle. Probably the two most explosive hitters on tour, Sabalenka and Rybakina are contrasting personalities with one shared ambition: ruthless domination.
Sabalenka relishing the spotlight
As I noted earlier, Sabalenka was completely unfazed by Svitolina’s protest, swatting away the Ukrainian with little regard to crowd sentiment. The unofficial ‘Queen of Grunt’ did experience one intriguing obstacle, with the chair umpire docking her a point for ‘hindrance’. The umpire believed that her intensity of grunt had interfered with Svitolina’s ability to play. Sabalenka was left incandescent and remonstrated with the umpire for some time. But she buckled down after that and won the game quite comfortably. And that’s the difference between Sabalenka today and Sabalenka of five years ago. 2021 Sabalenka would have emotionally caved after any perceived slight. 2026 Sabalenka is like mid 2000’s Tiger, able to zone in and out of the strike zone with alarming ease.
Ominous Aussie Open form
Sabalenka- like her counterpart- is yet to drop a set this fortnight. In fact, she has only dropped three sets in the last four editions of this event (two of which came against Keys in last year’s final). Keys played like she was gifted a wish by a genie in last year’s final, playing the most transcendent tennis of her career to just edge the Belarusian. These slick Aussie Open surfaces are just made for her brand of first-strike tennis. Sabalenka won in Brisbane a few weeks back and comes into this clash with an 11-0 record for the year.
A resurgent Kazakh
But Elena Ryabkina is the player who troubles Sabalenka most regularly on quicker surfaces. The former Wimbledon champ has struggled for consistency these last 18 months or so, but she has always managed to find a way to trouble the Belarusian. Sure, Sabalenka still leads the head-to-head 8-6. But read a little closer. Sabalenka won the first four matches, meaning that Rybakina leads their last ten meetings 6-4 (including five hardcourt straight-sets wins). Rybakina also leads Sabalenka 3-1 in finals, easily dispatching the Belarusian during last year’s WTA Finals run. There’s just something about Rybakina that instills fear in the Russian.
Rybakina can match her hardcourt power
On her day, the mercurial Rybakina is the one player who can consistently match Sabalenka’s hardcourt ferocity. Rybakina is one of the flattest hitters on tour and can penetrate the court from defensive positions. Every time they play, Sabalenka is almost reminded of the fact that there is someone out there who can hit it as clean as she can. Madison Keys did it to Sabalenka last year (but that was a one in a million performance). Rybakina seems to get the better of Sabalenka in most crunch scenarios (the 2023 final notwithstanding).
Contrasting personas
Sabalenka is very much an old-school World No.1 She loves the glamour of the big occasion and enjoys engaging with her fans on social media. That gaudy ‘Battle of the Sexes’ fiasco was just the type of fan-driven event that Sabalenka enjoys. Rybakina could not be more different. The Kazakh does not attract the limelight, often shunned from centre-courts despite having a Wimbledon crown in her repertoire. She struggled to get sponsorships during the early portion of her career. The personality clash manifests in their on-court demeanours. Sabalenka is probably the most effusive grunter out there, delivering great howls of anguish every time she hits a routine groundstroke. Rybakina is like a ninja in comparison, hitting vicious winners without uttering a single sound. I think that Sabalenka is perhaps intimidated by Rybakina’s unassuming power.
Rybakina bolstered by injustice
And that’s not to say that Rybakina is some shrinking violet. The Kazakh was engaged in a running feud with the WTA Tour last season, constantly decrying the schedule in what was largely a protest against their treatment of mentor Stefano Vukov. It all culminated in one of the most gangster cold shoulders in recent sporting history, with Rybakina refusing to pose for a photograph with WTA CEO Porita Archer after pocketing over $5m. And Rybakina may have reason to feel slightly aggrieved this year. After last year’s WTA Finals in Riyadh, Sabalenka was seen talking to herself in her native language, saying ‘once a year, even a stick shoots’. While poetic, it seems to ignore that fact that the Kazakh has made beating Sabalenka a bit of habit these past four years or so. This could be a classic.
