2nd seeded Taylor Fritz survived a nervy Toronto opener, defeating Spaniard Roberto Carballes Baena 7-5, 7-6. It was an error-riddled match and Fritz really relied on the strength of his serve: he served eight aces and won 83% of his first-serve points.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
National Bank Open (Canadian Open)
Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 and 16 Matches- 1st August
Round of 32
Outside of helping USA retain their United Cup crown, Fritz never enjoyed a great start to the year. But he did come into life on the North American hardcourts, reaching the semifinals of the Miami Open. He was poor on the clay but rediscovered his mojo during the grass-court swing, winning titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne before an impressive semifinal run at SW19. He looked solid in the first leg of his North American hardcourt odyssey, going down to an inspired Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in a tight quarterfinal tussle. An accomplished hardcourt operator, I was rather flabbergasted to discover that he has never previously gone beyond the 3rd round of this event. The runner-up at last year’s US Open, Fritz will be desperate to finally put together a solid Canadian run.
Standing in his way is up-and-coming Canadian sensation Gabriel Diallo. The hometown hero advanced to the round of 32 courtesy of a workmanlike 6-3, 7-6 win over Italian Matteo Gigante. The Canadian maintained dominance with his serve, winning an impressive 81% of points on his first delivery. Diallo has made solid gains this year, winning his maiden matches in each of the three slams (he did reach the 3rd round of last year’s US Open). He impressed as a lucky loser in Madrid, saving three match points against Dimitrov to reach a maiden Masters 1000 quarterfinal). He won his first ATP Tour title at the Libema Open and is sure to enjoy fanatical home support this fortnight. He certainly has some idea of what it takes to go toe-to-toe with Fritz, pushing him to five sets in a pulsating Wimbledon 2nd round clash.
The Verdict: Fritz to win in three at 2.45- Fritz leads the head-to-head 1-0, winning that aforementioned Wimbledon clash. This could be tighter than expected. Fritz looked unconvincing in his opener and the Canadian crowds are renowned for their fiercely partisan support (they almost got Bouchard over the like against Bencic). The American should have too much variety but Diallo has the raw power to filch a set.
Round of 16
Casper Rudd (8) vs Karen Khachanov (11)
Norwegian Casper Rudd only recently returned to action after suffering a knee injury at the French Open (he missed the entirety of the grass-court season). He looked a little undercooked upon his return in Gstaad but has looked far more poised in Montreal, picking up straight-sets wins over Safiullin and Borges. He wasn’t at his vintage best last time out against Borges, winning just 69% of his first-serve points while hitting more unforced errors than winners. But he is in the process of dusting off the cobwebs after a significant injury hiatus. The former US Open runner-up has already reached a North American hardcourt final this season, going down to Denis Shapovlaov in the Dallas Open final. He then enjoyed a typically stellar clay-court campaign, reaching quarterfinals in Barcelona and Rome while winning the biggest title of his career in Madrid. Rudd has some history in this event, reaching the quarterfinals in 2021 before a semifinal run the following year. Rudd hits with tremendous depth and consistency and will be a tough nut to crack.
Karen Khachanov improved to 24-16 for the season with a hard-fought 6-7, 6-4, 6-1 win over improved American Emilio Nava. The usually reliable Russian was sloppy from the baseline in the opening exchanges, giving Nava a window of opportunity into the match. He improved as the match progressed, dominating the decisive set with six winners to 0 unforced errors. Yet to reach a final this season, the two-time hardcourt Grand Slam semifinalist has picked up his best results on the natural surfaces, reaching the semifinals in Barcelona (clay) and Halle (grass). He then showed that he still has what it takes to mix with the best, reaching the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Khachanov is a powerful baseliner who looks to dominate with a potent serve-forehand combination. The Russian has some positive history in this event, reaching back-to-back semifinals in 2018 and 2019.
The Verdict: Khachanov to win in three sets at – Rudd leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning their most recent meeting in four sets at the 2022 US Open (when Rudd was operating at peak efficiency). This should be a tight match, with both players mirroring each other’s styles. Rudd tends to hit his forehand with a lot more topspin (typical of a clay-court specialist). I think Khachanov may have the edge due to those flat, penetrative forehands.
