Elena Rybakina didn’t look at her best in her Cincinnati opener, coming back from a set down to see off Mexican Renata Zarazua 6-4, 6-0, 7-5.
2025 WTA Tour
Masters 1000
Cincinnati Open
Linder Family Tennis Centre (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 12th August
Elena Rybakina (9) 0.4 vs Elise Mertens (19) 1.9
She served erratically, only landing 49% of first serves while spraying seven double faults. Still, that shot bailed her out in other situations: she won 80% of the first-serve points she landed, firing 14 aces. Rybakina looked like she was still wrestling with the demons of that Montreal defeat to Victoria Mboko (she inexplicably stole defeat from the jaws of victory against the young Canadian). Rybakina- who was once feared for her implacable demeanour- has now become gun-shy tight, pressurized situations. Rybakina has struggled to find her best form this season (thought she did break a 13-month trophy drought in Strasbourg). Putting that late collapse against Mboko to one side, Rybakina has looked more like her old self during this North American hardcourt swing, reaching back-to-back semifinals in Washington and Montreal. She is yet to go beyond the quarterfinal stage in Cincinnati and could do with a solid run to bolster her confidence ahead of the year’s final slam. She also has received a bit of a ‘boost’ this week, with controversial coach Stefano Vukic returning to her corner following a WTA-enforced ban.
Belgian counterpuncher Elise Mertens had to draw on all her renowned tenacity in her Cincinnati opener, coming back from a set down to see off Canadian qualifier Clervie Ngounoue 3-6, 7-6, 7-5. Mertens has enjoyed an up-and-down singles season, reaching three finals and winning titles in Singapore and Romsalen (though she was seeded inside the top three of all three minor events). She has struggled in the more illustrious events, with a 4th round run at Wimbledon being the one real highlight. But she more than made up for it at doubles level, winning her 5th career Grand Slam doubles title at the Aussie Open (playing alongside Hsieh Su-wei). Mertens- a superb athlete- will look to redirect Rybakina’s power and get forward when she can, relying on her doubles expertise to dominate the net. She has a bit of history in this event, reaching the semifinals here back in 2020 (one of only two WTA 1000 semifinal appearances for the Belgian).
The Verdict: Rybakina to win in straight sets at 0.93– Rybakina has dominated this rivalry, leading Mertens 5-1 in the head-to-head stakes. The Kazakh has won their last four meetings, crushing the Belgian 6-3, 6-2 when they met here in 2021. This should be a procession for Rybakina. Mertens doesn’t have the in-your-face aggression of Mboko and the Kazakh should overwhelm her from the back of the court.
Jasmine Paolini (7) 0.51 vs Ashlynn Krueger (26) 1.5
Jasmine Paolini made hard work of that first-round clash against Maria Sakkari, ultimately prevailing in two keenly fought tiebreaks. The Italian sped to a 5-1 lead in the first set but would waste four set points. She rallied back in the tiebreak to take the lead. Paolini has a 6-0 lead in the 2nd set tiebreak but almost conspired to throw it away, finally getting the job done after squandering five match-points. It was the performance of a player who hasn’t quite been able to live up to last year’s brilliance (she did reach two Grand Slam finals last year). Paolini has performed in fits and starts this year, reaching the semifinal stage in four events. She produced her first notable result of the year on North American hardcourts, reaching the semifinals in Miami. She performed typically well on clay, winning her lone title of the year in Rome. But she suffered a shocking start to her North American hardcourt swing, losing her Montreal opener to Aoi Ito (this despite winning the first set).
This could prove to be a pivotal portion of the season for 26th seed Ashlynn Kruger. The big-serving American endured a tough 2024 campaign, failing to reach a quarterfinal for the entirety of the season. But she rectified that in quick style this season, reaching two quarterfinals during the Australasian swing. She then produced one of her best weeks on tour, beating the likes of Daria Kasatkina and Leylah Fernandez en route to a maiden WTA 500 final in Abu Dhabi (she would go down in three sets to Bencic in the final). She also broke some new ground at WTA 1000 level, reaching the 4th round at the Miami Open (where she accounted for Elena Rybakina). But Krueger has struggled since then, going 5-9 in her subsequent nine events. She just survived a bit of a roller-coaster in her Cincinnati opener, ultimately prevailing 6-4, 0-6, 6-3 against Sevastova. That 2nd set bagel is a testament to her wobbly recent form. The big-serving, aggressive American will need to improve her serving stats as she looks to upset the 7th seed (she served 11 double faults and only won 59% of her first-serve points against Sevastova).
The Verdict: Krueger to win in three sets at 4.8– This will be their first career meeting. This has upset written all over it. Paolini hasn’t been at her fluid best and Kruger has the type of power-based game that can exploit her weaknesses (especially on these surfaces). I expect Kruger will look to get forward, putting pressure on the baseline-hugging Italian.
