American Taylor Fritz is firmly establishing himself as the 3rd favourite ahead of this year’s US Open.
2025 ATP/ WTA Tour
Masters 1000/ WTA 1000
Canadian Open
Selected Semifinals and Quarterfinals- 6th-7th August
6th August
Masters 1000- Quarterfinals
Taylor Fritz (2) 0.44 vs Andrey Rublev (6) 1.75
The American finished runner-up at last year’s US Open and is really rounding into some excellent form at this crucial juncture of the season. He started the year well, helping to guide USA to the defence of their United Cup crown. But he battled for rhythm after that, finally showing his class with a semifinal run in Miami. He battled on the clay but broke new ground on grass, winning titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne before an epic semifinal run at Wimbledon. He went down to Davidovich Fokina in an epic Washington quarterfinal but has bounced back admirably in Toronto, beating the trio of Carballes Baena, Diallo and Lehecka to improve to 5-1 in this year’s North American hardcourt swing. Fritz was hardly at his best in his round of 16 clash with Jiri Lehecka, hitting 31 winners to 48 unforced errors in a match that featured zero service breaks. He ground his way to that win, showcasing a fighting spirt that has certainly improved these past few seasons. Fritz is charting new territory this fortnight, having never gone beyond the 3rd round in his previous Canadian expeditions.
This has been a disappointing campaign for Andrey Rublev. The 6th seed started the season in downbeat mode, suffering opening-round defeats at the Hong Kong and Aussie Opens. He eventually did win a title in Qatar (which was the first time he had ever doubled up at a tournament during his entire career). But he stagnated once again, facing opening-round defeats in Dubai, Indian Wells and Miami. He managed a clay-court final in Hamburg but largely struggled on the natural surfaces. He bounced back somewhat upon the return to hard surfaces, reaching the semifinals of the Los Cabos Open. He never enjoyed the most glorious start to his North American swing, going down to Learner Tien in a humbling Washington first-round exit. But he has dug in this fortnight, seeing off Gaston before coming back from a set down against both Sonego and Davidovich Fokina (the Spainard was forced to retire while trailing 3-0 in the decisive set). Rublev appears to enjoy the Canadian conditions, reaching the final in Montreal last season.
The Verdict: Fritz to win in three at 2.55- Fritz leads Rublev 5-4 in the head-to-head meetings. Rublev won their most recent encounter en route to the 2024 Madrid Masters title. Having said that, Fritz has won their last four hardcourt meetings (two indoors, two outdoors). I think that many people have been too quick to write Rublev off. He is an established Masters 1000 operator, reaching six finals in his career (though he is yet to win a hardcourt Masters title). Fritz looks more assured from the back of the court and will probably force Rublev into quite a few errors. Sill, this could go either way and Fritz in three seems like a solid bet.
7th August
WTA 1000- Semifinal
Victoria Mboko 1.75 vs Elena Rybakina (9) 0.44
Canadian teenage sensation Victoria Mboko is fast becoming the talk of the tournament. The aggressive Canadian created some history with her quarterfinal win over Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, becoming the first Canadian woman to reach the semifinals of this event since Bianca Andreescu’s title-winning run in 2019. Furthermore, she is the youngest player to reach the semifinals of the event since Belinda Bencic in 2015. Mboko overpowered the Spainard, improving to 51-9 for the season in the process. She started the season in incredible form at the lower-tier, winning 22 successive matches on the ITF Tour. She qualified for her first Grand Slam draw at the French Open, defying expectations en route to a 3rd round finish. She then went on to stun Magdalena Frech at Wimbledon, But nobody could have foreseen this fortnight’s performance, She has shone is front of an expectant crowd, dropping just one set in her five matches. In the process, she humiliated top seed Coco Gauff in a lobsided match that barely lasted a hour.
Big-serving Kazakh Elena Rybakina will be looking to take full advantage of the pandemonium in the women’s draw. The former Wimbledon champion has struggled this season, losing a bit of the aura that she had cultivated in her prime. She hasn’t gone beyond the 4th round of a slam this season and has largely underwhelmed in WTA 1000 events. But she did manage to win her first title in 13 months in Strasbourg and she pushed Swiatek to three sets at Roland Garros. She got her North American hardcourt campaign off to a thrilling start, going down to Leylah Fernandez in a pulsating semifinal clash that lasted over 3 hours. She has continued that solid form in Montreal, serving 26 aces in her first three matches. She never served an ace in her quarterfinal win against Kostyuk, but she didn’t need to. Rybakina was cruising against the Ukrainian, leading 6-2, 2-1 before Kostyuk had to retire with a wrist issue. Rybakina has reached five WTA 1000 finals in the last two years, winning titles at Indian Wells and Rome in 2023. She picked up runner-up finishes in Qatar and Miami last year and could use this event as a springboard to reinvigorate her season.
The Verdict: Rybakina to win in straight sets at 1.01- Rybakina leads the head-to-head 1-0, winning in straight-sets in their recent Washington meeting. Mboko clearly has momentum on her side and will enjoy highly partisan crowd support. I just feel that Rybakina’s vast experience will tell in the end. Mboko is bound to feel some nerves in this clash and Rybakina could exploit that. She also knows what to expect from the Canadian after their recent Washington meeting.
