Wimbledon has its strawberries and cream while New York has its psychopathic crowds. What is it that gives the Aussie Open its own distinct personality?
2026 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Women’s Aussie Open Championships
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Victoria (Outdoor Hardcourts)
18th January- 1st February
Wimbledon has its strawberries and cream while New York has its psychopathic crowds. What is it that gives the Aussie Open its own distinct personality? Is it the oppressive, debilitating heat? Or could it be that it sneaks up on us when we’ve barely gotten used to the concept of this being a new calendar year? Whatever it is, I have a particular fondness for the Aussie Open. It seems to find the perfect balance between the respectful dignity of Wimbledon and sheer lunacy of the US Open. 2025 was a chaotic year for women’s tennis, with five different women splitting the slams and WTA Finals. It makes for a refreshing counterpoint to the Sinneraz rivalry that sucks up all the oxygen in men’s tennis. World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka has started the year in fine style, winning in Brisbane to mildly offset the cringe of that ‘Battle of the Sexes’ fiasco. I’m still trying to wrap my head around her decision to take the tour back 50 years for a quick buck in Dubai.
But there will be no shortage of players who can challenge Sabalenka’s hardcourt dominance. Former World No.1 and six-time Grand Slam champ Iga Swiatek can create history in Melbourne, as she looks to become the first player since Sharapova to complete the coveted career slam. The Pole regained some of her aura during last year’s unheralded Wimbledon triumph. Coco Gauff has endured well-publicized issues with her technique on faster surfaces but appeared to have rectified that during the latter portions of last season. She is now a seasoned campaigner who will pose a threat to anyone. Former Melbourne finalist Rybakina regained her ruthlessness in emphatic style, bulldozing her way to the WTA Finals title. And I haven’t even mentioned defending champ Madison Keys. This is going to be a wild ride.
Past Winners
2025: Madison Keys bt Aryna Sabalenka (6-3, 2-6, 7-5)
2024: Aryna Sabalenka bt Qinwin Zheng (6-3, 6-2)
2023: Aryna Sabalenka bt Elena Rybakina (4-6, 6-3, 6-4)
2022: Ashleigh Barty bt Danielle Collins (6-3, 7-6)
2021: Naomi Osaka bt Jennifer Brady (6-4, 6-3)
2020: Sofia Kenin bt Garbine Muguruza (4-6, 6-2, 6-2)
Aussie Open Precursors
Brisbane Invitational: Aryna Sabalenka bt Marta Kostyuk (6-4, 6-3)
Auckland Open: Elina Svitolina bt Wang Xinyu (6-3, 7-6)
Adelaide International and Hobart International: in progress
Players listed with seeds
The Big Three- Aryna Sabalenka (1), Iga Swiatek (2) and Coco Gauff (3)
Aryna Sabalenka is clearly the woman to beat this coming fortnight. The World No.1 has been the dominant figure in women’s hardcourt tennis these past few years, competing in the last six Grand Slam hardcourt finals (winning four of them). She won back-to-back Aussie Open titles in 2023 and 2024 and pushed Madison Keys all the way in last year’s epic championship match. She also arrives in terrific form, demolishing the field en route to the Brisbane title. Sabalenka made a terrible miscalculation with that ill-advised ‘Battle of the Sexes’ debacle, easily losing to a clearly unfit Nick Kyrgios. But she looks to be in fine fettle as we approach the slam that arguably suits here best.
Iga Swiatek- like Carlos Alcaraz- will be chasing the career Grand Slam in Melbourne. The Roland Garros specialist shocked the entire tennis world last year, claiming the Wimbledon title despite minimal grass-court pedigree. Her work with Wim Fissette was crucial to that win and could give her an advantage in Melbourne. Swiatek has struggled to adapt to the pace of these surfaces in the past, often requiring too much time to get into position. Fissette has improved her movement and recovery (which obviously paid off at Wimbledon). These courts are similar to Wimbledon in that the ball doesn’t really bounce that much. I think she will do well to use the same principles that helped her thrive at SW19. She is serving slightly flatter and employing more variety in her game. She underwhelmed at the United Cup, losing two matches despite Poland’s overall victory. Still, the Pole is a big-match demon who will have history on her mind.
Coco Gauff has a bit of a surreal 2025 campaign. She had well-publicized struggles in the early part of the hardcourt season, battling with the consistency of her serve and the setup of her forehand. She came into her own during the clay-court campaign, ultimately claiming a 2nd career Grand Slam title in Paris. She then recovered some hardcourt form in China, claiming her 3rd WTA 1000 title at the Wuhan Open. Gauff began this year in ominous fashion, beating Iga Swiatek at the United Cup to become the first player to beat the Pole in four successive matches. A semifinalist here back in 2023, Gauff managed to reach the final eight last year. I still have my doubts about Gauff on these surfaces. I think some of the power hitters are likely to expose her technique in the latter stages. She will be hoping that her unrivalled athleticism can help offset some of those lingering technical deficiencies.
My Top Ten Picks- Elena Rybakina (5) and Belinda Bencic (10)
I think I’m probably going to swerve Amanda Anisimova. I know that she is fresh off a sparkling season that saw her reach two Grand Slam finals and claim two WTA 1000 titles. But this is the only slam that she is yet to reach a quarterfinal in. She has struggled with the lower bounce in the past and had to withdraw from her Brisbane tie with Kostuk due to injury. Jessica Pegula is still yet to progress beyond the quarterfinal of a slam outside of the US Open. She is a consistent, durable baseliner who reached three successive quarterfinals here between 2021 and 2023. I just think that the other top ladies have more variety than her.
Jasmine Paolini is far more comfortable on the natural surfaces, where she can use her heavy topspin to dominate opponents. She has never gone beyond the 4th round here and I think she may struggle once again. Mirra Andreeva is an interesting one. Last year, I said that she could benefit from her failure to qualify for the WTA Finals, that it may help her feel refreshed for this new season. She has shown potential in Melbourne, reaching the 4th round in each of the last two seasons. I still think this will be a bridge too far. And I also think that defending champ Madison Keys may struggle with the physical side of things this year. She required a substantial medical timeout during her Brisbane clash with Shnaider. She made it through that tie but was soundly beaten by Sabalenka in the quarters. I think those injury issues- coupled with the burden of expectation on the defending champ- may be too much for her to overcome.
Elena Rybakina is surely going to be a factor in this year’s tournament. The hard-hitting Kazakh was formally a member of the so-called big-four, regularly competing with Sabalenka, Gauff and Swiatek for the biggest trophies. But she lost her way for 18 months or so, collapsing in the same high-pressure situations in which she used to thrive (just look at the way she capitulated against Mboko in Montreal last year). But she produced some of her best tennis in the closing chapters of the season, winning eleven successive matches en route to a herculean WTA Finals win. She won her first two matches in Brisbane before Muchova brought her 13-match winning streak to an end. Still, I have seen enough to suggest that she is going to be tough to beat on these surfaces. Rybakina is a brilliant server who loves to hit flat, penetrating groundstrokes. She reached the final here back in 2023 and looks primed for another deep run.
12 months ago, Swiss star Belinda Bencic was ranked 421st in the world. She had just come back from an 11-month maternity break after giving birth to daughter Bella. But she rose quickly through the rankings after a sensational comeback year. She reached the 4th round here last year before winning her first title as a mother at the Abu Dhabi Open. She reached the Wimbledon semifinals and would win yet another title at the Pan Pacific Open. And she underlined her impressive form with a dominant display at the recent United Cup, winning all five of her singles matches to help power Switzerland into the final (which included victories over Swiatek and Paolini). Bencic has looked to be more aggressive since returning from her hiatus and that should serve her well on these brisk surfaces.
My Mid-tier Choices (11-20)- Elina Svitolina (12) and Naomi Osaka (16)
It’s starting to feel like now or never time for Elina Svitolina’s Grand Slam ambitions. The former World No.3 is still yet to compete in a Grand Slam final (much like husband Gael Monfils). I feel like her game has suffered due to the ongoing Ukrainian occupation. She has become the de facto spokesperson of the cause on the WTA Tour, and it has really sapped her energy (not to mention the fact that she returned from a maternity break in 2023). But she showed real Grand Slam promise last season, reaching the quarterfinals in Melbourne and Roland Garros. She has been incredibly consistent in Melbourne over the years, reaching the 4th round or better in five of her last seven appearances (including three quarterfinal runs). She looks in great nick, winning in Auckland in her Aussie Open prep. She has looked to be more aggressive since returning to the tour and that could give her an added edge on these quick surfaces.
I have a feeling that this could be a big year for four-time Grand Slam winner Naomi Osaka. The two-time Aussie Open champ has had her difficulties in recent years, battling mental health issues and a plethora of injuries. But she started to play some big-time tennis last year, reaching her first final since 2022 at the Auckland Open. She then elevated her performance on the bigger stages, reaching the Canadian Open final before a brilliant semifinal run at the US Open. She is starting to approach the type of form that helped her rule hardcourt tennis between 2018-2021. She lost to Sakkari in the United Cup, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into that. She loves the big occasion and will be looking to peak in Melbourne.
Longshot Options (21 and above)- Jelena Ostapenko (24) and Barbora Krejcikova
On the surface, it doesn’t appear as if my Ostapenko pick makes much sense. She was eliminated in the first round here last season and arrives in dreadful form, losing her 5th successive match to Cirstea in Brisbane (she is competing in Adelaide at the time of writing). But that is just par for the course for Ostapenko. The Latvian wildcard is one of the most mercurial players in the modern game, swinging wildly between bouts of awful form and standout results (she finished runner-up in the WTA 1000 event in Qatar last year). All it takes is one excellent performance and she could go on a tear. Ostapenko reached the quarters here back in 2023 and will look to use her ride-or-die, ultra-aggressive style to make another deep run.
Two-time Grand Slam champ Barbora Krejcikova is as dangerous an unseeded player as you are likely to get. Sure, both of her slams have come on natural surfaces. But she has enjoyed plenty of success on hardcourts, winning a WTA 1000 title in Dubai in 2023. She has also flirted with a huge breakthrough in Melbourne, reaching the 4th round or better in each of her last three appearances (she is a two-time quarterfinalist). She unfortunately had to miss last year’s edition due to a serious back injury that sidelined her for the first half of the season. She once again showed her Grand Slam mettle in New York, putting her injury woes behind her to reach a 6th Grand Slam singles quarterfinal. Her durability and ability to alternate between aggression and counterpunching makes her a dangerous opponent on these surfaces. She just lost in Hobart but is one of those players who comes to life in the slams.
