The Aussie Open always felt like a mixed blessing when I was a kid. On one hand, it was a wonderful jolt to the system at the start of the new year (golf’s first major is only played in April). On the other hand, it coincided with the dreaded reality of school.
2026 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Men’s Aussie Open Championships
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Victoria (Outdoor Hardcourt)
18th January- 1st February
The Aussie Open always felt like a mixed blessing when I was a kid. On one hand, it was a wonderful jolt to the system at the start of the new year (golf’s first major is only played in April). On the other hand, it coincided with the dreaded reality of school. As I have gotten older, I have just grown to love the tournament more. It feels like a bellwether of the season to come, giving players a chance to make a real statement of intent for the year. I also think that the Aussie crowds find a nice balance between the rigid formalism of Wimbledon and the OTT hysteria of New York. Last year, the WTA and ATP Tours enjoyed wildly contrasting seasons. The WTA Tour was like the Wild West, with four different Grand Slam winners followed by Rybakina’s shock victory at the WTA Finals. The ATP Tour became a two-man play, with the awkwardly named Sinneraz rivalry the dominant narrative.
World No.1 Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to create history in Melbourne, as he seeks to become the youngest player in history to complete the career Grand Slam. The Spanish maverick put an end to Jannik Sinner’s hardcourt dominance in New York, overpowering the Italian in an ominous showing. Having said that, Sinner is undoubtedly the man to beat. The two-time defending Aussie Open champ was just born to play on these surfaces. His imperious serve and humongous, flat groundstrokes make him virtually unplayable on these surfaces. Can Alcaraz make the necessary adjustments to take down the Italian force of nature? Is there anyone who can gatecrash this seemingly inevitable finale? Djokovic still feels like the most likely spoiler. The Serbian legend has a record ten Aussie Open titles to his name and can probably compete on muscle memory alone. But can he beat both Alcaraz and Sinner in the same event? Alex Zverev and Daniil Medvedev suit the conditions but also come with plenty of scar tissue. Could the American duo of Fritz and Shelton have a say? I’m kind of hoping that we do get some kind of twist: it’s starting to get a tiny bit predictable.
Past Winners
2025: Jannik Sinner bt Alex Zverev (6-3, 7-6, 6-3)
2024: Jannik Sinner bt Daniil Medvedev (3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3)
2023: Novak Djokovic bt Stefanos Tsitsipas (6-3, 7-6, 7-6)
2022: Rafael Nadal bt Daniil Medvedev (2-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4, 7-5)
2021: Novak Djokovic bt Daniil Medvedev (7-5, 6-2, 6-2)
2020: Novak Djokovic bt Dominic Thiem (6-4, 4-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4)
Aussie Open Precursors
Hong Kong Open: Alexander Bublik bt Lorenzo Musetti (7-6, 6-3)
Brisbane International: Daniil Medvedev bt Brandon Nakashima (6-2, 7-6)
Adelaide International and Auckland Open: in progress
Players listed with seeds
The Big Three- Carlos Alcaraz (1), Jannik Sinner (2) and Novak Djokovic (4)
Carlos Alcaraz warmed up for the Aussie Open in ideal fashion, beating arch-nemesis Jannik Sinner in an exhibition match in South Korea. That will likely have little influence on anything: but winning is winning. Alcaraz made a bold decision on the eve of his career Grand Slam title bid, parting ways with coach Juan Carllos Ferrero after an extraordinarily fertile collaboration. Alcaraz obviously feels that a new coach may unlock another aspect of his play (which is a frightening prospect). It’s little secret that Alcaraz has struggled here in the past, failing to progress beyond the quarterfinal stage. He says that it’s down to his inability to find rhythm in the early stages of the season. I just think these quicker surfaces mitigate his heavy topspin, forcing him to flatten out his groundstrokes more than he would like. Perhaps his US Open victory over Sinner will give him the impetus to finally make a real tilt at this title.
But Jannik Sinner remains the man to beat. The two-time defending champion is the premier hardcourt player in world tennis (last year’s US Open notwithstanding). He has reached the final in each of the last four Grand Slam hardcourt championships, claiming three titles. His big serve and thunderous groundstrokes are ideally suited to these brisk conditions. In fact, he has only dropped five sets in each of his two title-winning runs. He won last year’s title with ease, banishing a looming doping ban from his mind. Alcaraz is the artist and Sinner is the machine. I just think the machine is a better fit for these specific surfaces. He will barely face a break point and will be a constant menace on return. He is metronomic on these surfaces and could emerge as a comfortable champion (much to the chagrin of tennis romantics like me).
What should we expect from 24-time Grand Slam champ Novak Djokovic this year? It’s a bit of a mystery. The legendary Serb hasn’t played a competitive match since winning the inaugural Hellenic Championship in November. He just pulled out of the Adelaide precursor, citing physical issues. He ended last season in physical distress, withdrawing from the ATP Finals with a shoulder issue. But Djokovic has been known to perhaps lean into his ‘injuries’ in the past, creating a bit of a smokescreen to offset opponents. Look, Djokovic is clearly nearing the end of his glittering career while Sinner and Alcaraz are closer to the start of theirs. But just look at his record in this event. His dominance here- at times- has been analogous to Nadal’s supremacy in Paris. He lost to Sinner in the 2024 semifinals, bringing his 33-match Melbourne winning streak to an end. And he retired just one set into his semifinal with Zverev last year. He will always have a fighter’s chance on these surfaces.
My Top Ten Picks- Alex Zverev (3) and Ben Shelton (8)
5th seed Lorenzo Musetti should be feeling confident after finishing runner-up to Bublik in Hong Kong. I still think that the crafty, elegant Italian is going to struggle on these surfaces (he has never progressed beyond the 3rd round in Melbourne). ‘Speed Demon’ Alex De Minaur will be a firm fan’s favourite this coming fortnight. He enjoyed an uber-consistent 2025 campaign, reaching the 4th round or better in eleven massive events (slams, Masters 1000, ATP Finals). Of those eleven tournaments, he would only reach the semifinal in two. Still yet to progress beyond the quarterfinal stage of a slam, I still think that De Minaur’s lack of blockbuster weapons will haunt him in the end.
Felix Auger-Aliassime enjoyed an incredible 2025 campaign, reminding the world why he was once touted as a future World No.1. He won three of five finals last year, finishing runner-up in the Paris Masters. He also showed off his Grand Slam bona fides with a semifinal run in New York. I still slightly hesitate to back him. Perhaps that big post-season break will have interrupted his rhythm (he went 1-1 at the United Cup). Taylor Fritz is battling with a knee issue and has lost three of his four lead-in matches. Moreover, he has failed to break his opponent’s serve in his last three matches (the first time that has happened in his career). I think it best to swerve the charismatic American. Big-hitting Kazakh Alexander Bublik is the in vogue option. He has just broken into the top ten for the first time in his career courtesy of his Hong Kong victory (his 5th tournament victory in the last 12 months). I still think best-of-five sets tennis isn’t really in his wheelhouse (despite breakthrough runs in Paris and New York last season). He has never progressed beyond the 2nd round here and I think a deep run here is a bit optimistic.
2025 Aussie Open finalist Alex Zverev enjoyed a middling start to the season, winning one and losing one in his United Cup efforts. Still, he will feel relieved to just have a little competitive tennis under his belt. Zverev had a weird 2025 campaign, finishing runner-up in Melbourne before diminishing returns in the other majors. But he did show consistency towards the end of the campaign, reaching the semifinals in three of the final four Masters 1000 events. Zverev’s potent serve and fierce groundstrokes have served him well here in the past: he reached the semifinal stage or better in three of the last six seasons. Perhaps the media’s Sinneraz obsession will give him the opportunity to thrive in the shadows.
For me, Ben Shelton has exactly the sort of megawatt game that can potentially destabilize a Sinner or Alcaraz (probably not both). The big-serving lefty has already accumulated a solid Grand Slam resume, reaching the quarterfinal stage or better in four events. He has been particularly impressive in the hardcourt arena, reaching the US Open semis in 2023 before an exceptional semifinal run here last season. Shelton grew as a player over the course of last season, claiming a maiden Masters 1000 title in Toronto. Shelton just won his first match of the season in Auckland and should be primed for a deep Grand Slam run.
My Mid-tier Choices- Daniil Medvedev (11) and Karen Khachanov (15)
No player has more Aussie Open trauma than Russian Daniil Medvedev. The three-time Aussie Open runner-up has twice surrendered two sets to love leads in the final. So, he will need to overcome some significant mental hurdles if he wishes to make a deep run this year. But you can’t deny that when his game is hot, he is an ideal fit for these surfaces. And his game is quite hot right now. The cantankerous Russian is fresh off his first title of the season, dropping just one set in an ominous showing in Brisbane. He also looked quite sharp in the back end of 2025, reaching back-to-back semifinals in China before claiming the Almaty Open title. With the burden of expectation lowered this year, Medvedev may be able to truly express himself.
I’m opting for yet another Russian in my mid-tier picks: Karen Khachanov. The durable Russian baseliner is just one of those guys who will pop up with a deep Grand Slam run out of nowhere. He has reached the quarterfinals in every single slam, reaching the semifinals in both hardcourt slams. He enjoyed a solid 2025 campaign, vaulting back into the top 10 courtesy of a runner-up finish at the Canadian Masters and a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon. He never had the greatest of starts to his 2026 campaign, going down to unfancied Michael Mmoh in his Hong Kong opener. Still, the Russian ironman knows how to handle these exacting Melbourne conditions, reaching the semifinals back in 2023.
Longshot Options- Denis Shapovalov (21) and Brandon Nakashima (27)
Big-hitting lefty Denis Shapovalov made a lovely little move up the rankings last season, moving back into the top 30 and then top 25 after some fantastic results. The somewhat mercurial Canadian has struggled with consistency and injuries over the past few years, with many fearing that we may not see him at his competitive best again. But he roared back last season, winning the biggest title of his career in Dallas before claiming a 2nd hardcourt title of the year in Los Cabos. He generally struggled in the bigger events, but I still think he could prove a dangerous customer in these conditions. He has shown some pedigree here in the past, reaching the quarterfinals back in 2022.
Sure, Brandon Nakashima has a frankly terrible record in this event. I was kind of surprised to learn that he has never won a main-draw match in Melbourne. His hard-hitting, baseline-hugging game just seems well suited to the demands of this surface. But the energetic American arrives in the form of his life, fresh off a stunning runner-up run at the Brisbane International (his first ATP Final appearance in four years). He also threatened to deliver on the big stage last year, reaching the 4th round in both legs of the ‘Sunshine Double’ before an impressive 4th round run at Flushing Meadows. He could be one to surprise this year.
