Jasmine Paolini took the tennis world by storm last season, winning a maiden WTA 1000 event in Dubai and finishing runner-up in two slams. The Italian was a breath of fresh air, brandishing a forehand that defied her diminutive stature.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Cincinnati Open
Linder Family Tennis Centre (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 14th August
Jasmine Paolini (7) vs Barbora Krejcikova
It was probably inevitable that she would slack off to some extent this year. And she did, struggling in the opening hardcourt events of the season. She rediscovered her mojo on a North American hardcourt, reaching the Miami semifinals prior to a resurgence on clay (she won her lone title of the season in Rome). She endured an embarrassing start to her North American hardcourt swing, bowing out to lowly Aoi Ito in her Montreal opener. And she looked cagey in her Cincinnati opener, almost conspiring to lose in her tight win over Maria Sakkari. Paolini was made to suffer again in the first set of her round of 16 clash with Ashlynn Krueger, ultimately coming through a tiebreak. But she was back to her quintessential best in the 2nd set, taking advantage of Krueger’s serving yips to prevail 7-6, 6-1. A quarterfinalist here back in 2023, Paolini clearly has an affinity for these brisk surfaces.
Next up for Paolini is the woman who beat her in last year’s Wimbledon final: Barbora Krejcikova. The two-time Grand Slam champ has endured an injury-interrupted campaign, missing the first four months of the season due to a back issue. She returned to action in Strasbourg but would have to wait till Roland Garros to win her first match of the season. She would go on to reach the quarterfinals in Eastbourne but fell well short in her Wimbledon defence, going down in the 3rd round to Emma Navarro (though it did go to a deciding set). The all-court dynamo was soundly beaten by Andreescu in Montreal and was looking as if she may be undercooked going into this year’s US Open. But she has made up for her relative inactivity this fortnight, winning three successive three-set matches to book her place in the final 16. She had to weather a 2nd set storm in her round of 32 clash with teenager Iva Jovic, elevating her level in the 3rd to prevail 6-4, 3-6, 6-2. She served well for the majority of proceedings, winning 85% of her first-serve points. A quarterfinalist here back in 2021, I think the Czech will have benefitted from these protracted matches. A feisty all-court player, Krejcikova needs matches under her belt to reach her best level.
The Verdict: Krejcikova to win in three sets at – Krejcikova leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning their most recent meeting in last year’s Wimbledon final. These two are perfectly suited to each other, with Paolini the natural aggressor while Krejcikova looks for spots to counterpunch. They both employ plenty of slice and I think this could become a battle of wills. I think the Czech could spring a minor surprise here as she grows into some dark-horse form ahead of the US Open. Her double-handed backhand is incredible and may be able to neutralize Paolini’s forehand strength.
Coco Gauff (2) vs Lucia Bronzetti
2nd seed Coco Gauff enjoyed serene passage through to the final 16, with round of 32 opponent Danyana Yastremska withdrawing due to injury. Gauff barely worked up a sweat in her Cincinnati opener, easing past Wang Xinyu 6-3, 6-2. She will be raring to go as she looks to create another peak in what has been a roller-coaster of a campaign. The 2023 US Open champ started the season in encouraging fashion, helping USA retain the United Cup before a solid quarterfinal run at the Aussie Open. She lost her way after that, struggling with her redesigned serve and loose forehand. But she found a wonderful cluster of form on clay, reaching three successive finals and going on to win her 2nd Grand Slam title in Paris. The slower clay surfaces gave her more time to set up on that forehand wing. But she once again struggled when the tour moved to quicker surfaces, suffering an embarrassing first-round exit at Wimbledon. She was thrashed by an inspired Moboko in Montreal and could use a bit of a confidence booster before Flushing Meadows. Gauff is a past Cincinnati specialist, winning the 2023 title prior to that breakthrough US Open triumph.
26-year-old Italian Lucia Bronzetti has been a bit of a surprise package this fortnight, beating two seeded players en route to a maiden WTA 1000 round of 16 appearance. It hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Italian ironwoman, who has needed three sets in each of her ties. But she has shown remarkable grit in stultifying conditions and will go into this match against Gauff with nothing to lose. She showed great tennis IQ against the mercurial Ostapenko, weathering an early storm before coming into her own in the match. She played sound, percentage tennis, forcing the Latvian into a barrage of errors (typical). She served tremendously well throughout, firing ten aces while winning 71% of her first-serve points. A runner-up at this year’s Transylvania Open (I need to remind myself that is a thing), Bronzetti will need to up her first-serve percentage if she stands any chance of upsetting Gauff: she only served at 48% against Ostapenko.
The Verdict: Gauff to win in three sets at – Gauff leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning their most recent meeting in Indian Wells last year. Gauff is obviously a ridiculous favourite to win here. She has too much range for Bronzetti and should be able to progress to the quarterfinals. However, she has been struggling on serve and Bronzetti could exploit that, perhaps nicking a set along the way. Bronzetti showed wonderful composure against Ostapenko, hanging in there until the errors started to rain down. While Gauff is no Ostapenko, she does have a tendency to spray errors against hard-hitting baseliners (especially when she isn’t in the best of form). Bronzetti does possess a potent forehand and could get some joy in the cross-court exchanges.
