Iga Swiatek cruised into a 3rd straight Cincinnati quarterfinal, soundly beating Romanian Sorana Cirstea 6-4, 6-3. Swiatek battled on serve, landing less than 50% of her first deliveries while winning only 60% of those points.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Cincinnati Open
Linder Family Tennis Centre, Cincinnati, Ohio (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinal Matches- 15th August
Iga Swiatek (3) vs Anna Kalinskaya (28)
But she had too much firepower in the end, finishing the match with a 24th winner (Cirstea only had nine). This is one of only three current WTA 1000 events in which Swiatek is yet to reach the final. But she has been knocking on the door, reaching back-to-back semifinals in 2023 and 2024. There was a misconception that Swiatek had lost her way these past 18 months or so. I think people had just become too used to the all-conquering Swiatek of 2023. She was remarkably consistent in the first half of the year, reaching the semifinal in five of her first nine outings (including semifinal runs at the first two slams). She finally rediscovered her killer instinct on grass, finishing runner-up in Bad Homburg before claiming her maiden Wimbledon crown. Swiatek eased back into action in Montreal, going down to an inspired Tauson in the quarterfinals. She has looked impressive this fortnight and is yet to drop a set (though Kostyuk withdrew prior to their round of 32 clash).
Next up for Swiatek is in-form Anna Kalinskaya. The 26-year-old Russian has looked in inspired touch during this North American hardcourt swing, improving to 9-2 with a stubborn comeback win over Alexandrova. I thought that she may wilt in the face of her compatriot’s flat hitting. But she worked her way into the match, redirecting Alexandrova’s power expertly. The result improved her dreadful record to 1-6 against Alexandrova. Kalinskaya hasn’t been able to kick on since finishing runner-up at last year’s WTA 1000 event in Dubai. She has struggled for consistency all year, making just one semifinal appearance prior to this swing (at the relatively low-key Singapore Tennis Open). But that runner-up finish in Washington harkened back to the type of form that saw her reach last year’s Dubai final. She reached the round of 32 in Montreal and has negotiated a slippery draw this fortnight, seeing off Stearns and Anisimova before her comeback win over Alexandrova.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in three sets at – Kalinskaya leads the head-to-head 1-0, beating the Pole in straight sets en route to last year’s Dubai final. Swiatek flattered to deceive in Montreal, going down to the aggressive Tauson. Swiatek can get hurried on these faster surfaces (it’s little wonder she has never reached the final in Melbourne). This could give Kalinskaya a chance, especially if she can get that forehand working. Still, Swiatek’s relentless depth and power should see her through to yet another semifinal.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) 0.52 vs Elena Rybakina (9) 1.48
This looks set to be a blockbuster quarterfinal clash. World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka- despite comfortably leading the tour in victories and finals- will probably feel slightly frustrated with how things have gone this season. The Belarusian lost the big ones, going down to Keys in Melbourne before a heartbreaking defeat to Gauff in Paris. She suffered yet more disappointment at SW19, going down to Amanda Anisimova in the semifinals (which would have stung that bit more after Swiatek double-bagled her in the final). She took time to reset after the grass-court campaign, opting to skip Montreal due to fatigue. She showed little signs of ring-rust in her Cincinnati opener, easing past former Wimbledon champ Vondrousova 7-5, 6-1. But she lost the plot in her gruelling round of 32 tie with Emma Radacanu, committing 72 unforced errors before finally progressing 7-6, 4-6, 7-6. She looked far more composed last time out, seeing off a spirited Bouzas 6-1, 7-5. Perhaps she needed that Radacanu marathon to shake off all the post-Wimbledon cobwebs. The defending Cincinnati champ has an excellent record in this event, reaching the semifinal stage or better on four occasions (including the last three seasons). Her brutal, high-octane style is perfectly suited to these quick conditions.
Elena Rybakina produced one of her most complete recent performances in her round of 16 clash with Madison Keys, coming back from a set down to take down the Aussie Open champ 6-7, 6-4, 6-2. Rybakina lost some of her aura over the past 18 months or so, tightening up in high-pressure situations. This was never more evident then in the way she imploded against Mboko in the Montreal semifinals. Still, she has certainly looked more attuned since the start of the North American hardcourt season, striving to reach a 3rd successive semifinal with victory over the World No.1. Rybakina hasn’t been at her fluid best this fortnight but has shown encouraging mental fortitude, winning all of her matches in three sets. It would appear that the return of controversial coach Stefano Vukic has worked. For now. Anyway, Rybakina will be looking to make a real statement ahead of this year’s US Open.
The Verdict: Rybakina to win in three at 4.6- This has been an intense head-to-head rivalry, with Sabalenka leading 7-4 going into this quarterfinal clash. The Belarusian won their most recent meeting, squeaking past the Kazakh earlier this year in Berlin. However, Rybakina has won their last two hardcourt meetings. This is a tough one to call. Sabalenka is a solid favourite but Rybakina has the power to challenge her from the back of the court (and look what happened when Radacanu did precisely that). I think Rybakina could sneak this in three.
