This match would have been a foregone conclusion 12 months ago. But former World No.1 Iga Swiatek’s aura of invincibility has dissipated (the Pole hasn’t reached a final since claiming her 4th Roland Garros crown last year).
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Mutua Madrid Open
La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 25th April
Iga Swiatek (2) 0.15 vs Alexandra Eala 4.4
I think that the Olympic final loss to Qinwen Zheng was a catalyst for some self-doubt. She has been consistent this season, reaching three semifinals and four quarterfinals. But she appears to have lost some of the dynamism that saw her threaten to run away with the tour a few years ago. The clay-court demigoddess didn’t thrive in her first clay-court outing of the season, going out to eventual champ Jelena Ostapenko in the Stuttgart quarters (she has now lost six in six against the mercurial Latvian). Swiatek will be hoping to reignite her campaign on courts where she has thrived in the past (she finished runner-up in 2023 before claiming the title last year). But next she takes on a player who overwhelmed her in Miami: Alexandra Eala.
These are exciting times for 19-year-old Alexandre Eala. The Filipino lefty- touted as a future Grand Slam contender- exploded into relevance at this year’s Miami Open, beating the likes of Swiatek and Keys en route to an unheralded semifinal berth. Eala- a former US Open junior champ- had been competing successfully on the ITF Tour prior to that Miami run. The 19-year-old understandably dipped in her first event post-Miami, going down in the 2nd round of the WTA 125 event in Oeiras. But she bounced back in impressive fashion in her Madrid opener, firing 27 winners to blow Tomova off the court 6-3, 6-2. In the process, she became just the 2nd Asian teenager- after Naomi Osaka- to claim five or more WTA 1000 victories in the same calendar year. Eala is like a female version of Rafa, employing heavy topspin on that forehand wing. An aggressive baseliner with great fitness levels, Eala should be an ideal fit for these quickish clay surfaces.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in three at 3.1- Eala leads the head-to-head 1-0, producing that glorious upset win at this year’s Miami Open. Her aggressive, in-your-face style seemed to flip the switch on Swiatek, forcing the Pole to go on the defensive. Swiatek will have learned from that meeting and should be able to recover on clay. However, Eala may be able to pinch a set if she can find her range with that booming lefty forehand.
