Normal service seems to have resumed on this year’s WTA 1000 circuit. The first three events were crazy affairs, with Anisimova winning in Qatar before Mirra Andreeva won back-to-back titles. World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka reasserted her authority with victory over Pegula in Miami. And we will have another marquee final in Madrid, with the towering Belarusian coming up against a resurgent Coco Gauff (two members of what used to be called the ‘Big-Four’). This should be an exhilarating clash between two players who know each other all too well.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Mutua Madrid Open
Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain (Outdoor Clay)
Final- 3rd May
Aryna Sabalenka (1) 0.67 vs Coco Gauff (4) 1.18
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka is unquestionably the queen of Madrid. She is a two-time Madrid champion, winning the title in 2021 and 2023. In fact, she has now reached the final in four of the last five seasons, improving her Madrid record to 22-4 with a comprehensive semifinal win over Elina Svitolina. Sabalenka wore the counterpunching Svitolina down, winning 74% of her first-serve points and dictating the tempo from the back of the court. The undisputed World No.1 has now won 30 matches this season (the first woman on tour to do so). She also created an impressive bit of history against Svitolina, becoming the first woman since Martina Hingis in 2001 to reach six finals in the first four months of the year. She hasn’t been at her decisive best in finals this year, winning just two of her five championship matches (Brisbane and Indian Wells). She also came agonizingly close to winning a 4th Grand Slam title in Melbourne, pipped by Keys in three tight sets.
Sabalenka has easily been the 2nd best clay-court player in the world these last few seasons (during the period of Swiatek dominance). Sabalenka has reached eight career clay-court finals, winning both of her clay-court titles on these slightly quicker Madrid surfaces. With Swiatek looking completely out of sorts this season, Sabalenka has the chance to become the best clay-court player in the world. She started her clay-court season in Stuttgart, looking relatively untroubled before running into a demented Ostapenko in the final. But she is simply made for these Madrid surfaces. Next up for Sabalenka is regular foe Coco Gauff.
Coco Gauff
21-year-old Coco Gauff needed a bit of inspiration. The 2023 US Open champion has endured a terrible year thus far, failing to go beyond the quarterfinal stage of a single event leading into this tournament. The 2024 WTA Finals champ has struggled with her serve (and her forehand has also gone walkabouts on occasion). But she has roared back to relevance in Madrid, thrashing arch-
nemesis Iga Swiatek 6-1, 6-1 to reach her first clay-court final since finishing runner-up at the 2022 French Open (where she was trounced by Swiatek). And the result was never in doubt, as Gauff won 19 of 21 points on her first-serve in a dominant display, registering her first clay-court victory over the Pole.
And it all could have been so much different for Gauff, who edged past Yastremska in her opening match last week. She has gone from strength to strength, finding much more consistency on her service delivery. She moves well on clay, which affords her the opportunity to unwind on those powerful groundstrokes. I have always felt that Gauff is a confidence player who tends to ride waves of form. The nature of that victory over Swiatek could provide her with the launching pad to mount a credible French Open bid. However, she first has to overcome World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka (the most consistent player in the world).
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets at 1.42- This has been an incredibly close rivalry, with Gauff edging the head-to-head stakes 5-4 (making this their 10th meeting). Gauff won their most recent encounter, easing last Sabalenka in straight sets at last year’s WTA Finals. Furthermore, Gauff won their only previous clay-court meeting, also winning in straight sets at the 2021 Italian Open. But that was a completely different version of Sabalenka. Also, in reference to the WTA Finals defeat, I think Sabalenka can be forgiven for feeling a bit jaded towards the end of last season. Sabalenka understands the pace of these surfaces and she should be able to rush Gauff into errors (particularly on that forehand wing).
