It’s that time of year again, where the demure reverence of Wimbledon starts to feel like something out of the 15th century. Originally known as the U.S. National Championships, the US Open dates back to 1881 (though the first woman’s event would only take place in 1887).
2025 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Women’s US Open Tennis Preview
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre, New York City (Outdoor Hardcourts)
24th August- 7th September
Elle Hansell won the inaugural women’s championships, defeating Laura Knight in the final (back in the days where female tennis players looked like first-class passengers boarding the Titanic). I do wonder what those early pioneers would make of this rowdy demonstration of tennis excess. This event is the brash, American counterpoint to the mannered dignity of SW19. Players will need to withstand the pressure-cooker atmosphere- and stultifying heat- if they stand any chance of claiming the year’s final slam. The US Open has already generated some controversy, rolling out a truncated, star-studded mixed-doubles event on the eve of the championships. It’s a great marketing tool: who wouldn’t want to see Alcaraz and Radacanu going head-to-head with Swiatek and Rudd? But it does leave the traditional mixed doubles specialists in the woods (though at least the organizers had the good sense to invite defending champs Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori).
This is shaping up to be yet another engrossing slam. This has become the most unpredictable slam on the women’s roster, with ten different winners in the last eleven seasons (Naomi Osaka being the only woman to win two renewals in that span). Defending champion and World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka leads the tour in wins but has failed to reach a final during this year’s North American hardcourt swing. Undoubtedly the most consistent hardcourt player of the last few seasons, Sabalenka doesn’t come into this event with too much confidence. Iga Swiatek looks like a woman possessed, adding the recent Cincinnati title to her shock Wimbledon triumph. The Pole has reestablished that fear-factor, playing with the freedom that saw her dominate the game a few years back. 2023 champ Coco Gauff will lead a strong US contingent that features the likes of Jessica Pegula, Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova. Elena Rybakina has been showing signs of returning to her best form while Jamine Paolini and Naomi Osaka have reached big finals in the lead-in to this event. Also keep an eye out of breakthrough Canadian Open winner Victoria Mboko. This is a wonderfully open event that is sure to provide plenty of upsets and drama.
Sidenote: Venus Williams will be making her first appearance here since 2023, becoming the oldest singles player in the tournament since Renee Richards in 1981. She has already been ousted from the mixed doubles comp, going down to the duo of Rublev and Muchova (she was playing with Reily Opeka). It remains to be seen whether this is little more than a gimmick.
Past Champions
2024: Aryna Sabalenka bt Jessica Pegula (7-5, 7-5)
2023: Coco Gauff bt Aryna Sabalenka (2-6, 6-3, 6-2)
2022: Iga Swiatek bt Ons Jabeur (6-2, 7-6)
2021: Emma Radacanu bt Leylah Fernandez (6-4, 6-3)
2020: Naomi Osaka bt Victoria Azarenka (1-6, 6-3, 6-3)
2019: Bianca Andreescu bt Serena Williams (6-3, 7-5)
2018: Naomi Osaka bt Serena Williams (6-2, 6-4)
North American hardcourt precursors this season
Washington Open: Leylah Fernandez bt Anna Kalinskaya (6-1, 6-2)
Canadian Open: Victoria Mboko bt Naomi Osaka (2-6, 6-4, 6-1)
Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek bt Jasmine Paolini (7-5, 6-4)
Tennis in the Land Cleveland and Monterrey Open: in progress
Notable absentees: Qinwen Zheng, Paula Badosa and Ons Jabeur
The ‘Big Three’- Aryna Sabalenka (1), Coco Gauff (2) and Iga Swiatek (3)
This has been a surreal year for World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka. The defending US Open champ leads the live WTA rankings, securing her spot at the WTA finals ages ago. She has also reached the most finals. But she hasn’t been able secure that 4th Grand Slam title, losing in two finals before agonizingly missing out to Anisimova in the Wimbledon semis (Swiatek double-bageling Anisimova must have stung). She also underwhelmed in her only North American hardcourt precursor, thrashed by Rybakina in the Cincy quarterfinals. Still, you cannot deny that she is the premier hardcourt player in the world. Sabalenka has reached the last five Grand Slam hardcourt finals, winning back-to-back Aussie Opens before claiming her maiden US Open title last year (dropping just one set in that run). Moreover, she has reached the semifinal stage (or better) in ten of her last eleven Grand Slam appearances! She will certainly be in the mix this coming fortnight.
Coco Gauff is a bit of an enigma going into this year’s event. The 2023 US Open champion added to her Grand Slam tally at Roland Garros, coming from a set down to overcome Sabalenka in the final. She was sensational during that clay-court swing, finishing runner-up in Madrid and Rome. But she failed to reach one semifinal outside of clay, embarrassed by Yastremska in their Wimbledon first-round clash. The slower clay gave her the time to make minor adjustments, mitigating her recent forehand issues. Those issues have been exposed on quicker surfaces. She has served poorly of late, coughing up 27 double faults in her three Cincy matches. Gauff will no doubt receive a boost from the fanatical home supporters. I just think the mechanics of her game are not clicking on quicker surfaces.
Who would have thought, four months ago, that Iga Swiatek would be going into this US Open as a tentative favourite? The tales of her demise were grossly exaggerated. Look, there’s no denying that she went through a lull in late 2024 and early 2025 (I think that Olympic semifinal defeat took a considerable emotional toll on Swiatek). She reached a plethora of semifinals in the early part of the season (including back-to-back Grand Slam semifinals runs in Melbourne and Paris). But she just lost the cutting edge that made her the most feared player on the planet. She has rediscovered that mystique of late, reaching three finals in her last four events. She completely defied expectations at Wimbledon, claiming her 6th Grand Slam title. And she just underlined her resurgence in authoritative fashion, claiming the Cincinnati title without dropping a single set. She has done some stellar work with coach Wim Fisette, bolstering her serve while speeding up her overall reaction time. She averaged 110mph on serve in Cincinnati (up from 103 mph last year). She is winning more cheap points on serve, freeing her up to go for broke on return. While I still think Sabalenka is the woman to beat, I would not be surprised if the Pole collected her 7th Grand Slam title this fortnight.
My Top Ten Contenders- Jessica Pegula (4) and Elena Rybakina (9)
Let me quickly dismiss some of the other top-ten players who I think will struggle this fortnight. 5th seed Mirra Andreeva has been one of the breakout stars on this year’s tour, winning back-to-back WTA 1000 titles while reaching the quarterfinals in Paris and Wimbledon. She has only made one appearance since SW19, losing to McCartney Kessler in Montreal. I just think it will be too much of a physical ask for the 17-year-old to go deep this year. Amanda Anisimova is still coming to terms with being double-bageled by Swiatek the Wimbledon final. She has gone 2-2 since then, and I just think there will be too much scar tissue to overcome. 2024 US Open semifinalist Emma Navarro has been nowhere this season, going past the quarterfinal stage in just one event. I struggle to see how she deals with all these elite ball-strikers.
Madison Keys and Jasmine Paolini are not as easy to dismiss. Keys is a past US Open specialist, reaching the semifinal stage on three occasions (she finished runner-up in 2017). She started this season in imperious fashion, winning her first 16 matches while capturing a maiden Grand Slam title in Melbourne. She eventually ran out of gas but would still go on to reach the Wimbledon quarters, highlighting her undeniable Grand Slam nous. I just think she is running on reserves after a gruelling campaign. Jasmine Paolini will be flying high after an excellent runner-up finish on those brisk Cincinnati courts. However, the diminutive Italian has largely struggled on the quicker surfaces this year, falling early at Wimbledon and Montreal. In fact, she has only reached the semifinal stage in two hardcourt events all season. I just can’t see her going all the way in New York
Jessica Pegula is my first pick in this category. Sure, she doesn’t arrive in tremendous form, going 2-4 in her last six matches. She has decried her sloppy form, but I still think she has what it takes to bounce back in New York. Pegula created a nice bit of personal history here last season, breaking her Grand Slam quarterfinal hoodoo en route to a maiden Grand Slam final (she lost to Sabalenka in a gruelling slugfest). Despite her recent form, Pegula has enjoyed a solid season, winning titles on all three surfaces. She has been particularly impressive on American soil, winning titles in Austin and Charleston while finishing runner-up in Miami. At her best, she hits with remarkable consistency and depth, and I expect her to elevate her performance in front of boisterous home support.
My next pick is former Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina. The powerful Kazakh has lost her aura of invincibility these past 18 months or so, losing her nerve in high-pressure situations (which was no more apparent then in her insane defeat to Mboko in the recent Montreal semifinals). Rybakina has reached five hardcourt semifinals this season but has lacked her usual ruthless edge (her serve has often buckled in semifinal clashes). Still, Rybakina has probably been the most consistent player during this North American hardcourt series, reaching the semifinals in all three events in which she has played (Washington, Montreal and Cincy). She also has one undeniable advantage: Grand Slam pedigree. The 2022 Wimbledon champ also finished runner-up at the 2023 Aussie Open. She has flattered to deceive here in the past, failing to go beyond the 3rd round in all previous appearances. I just think she may benefit from being more of a dark-horse option this year (she is no longer considered part of a ‘Big-Four’).
My Mid-tier Choices (seeded 11-20)- Clara Tauson (14) and Belinda Bencic (16)
It just feels like a matter of time until Clara Tauson explodes at Grand Slam level. The aggressive, smooth-hitting Dane has enjoyed a breakthrough campaign, rising to a career-high ranking of 15. She has shone in elite-field hardcourt events, finishing runner-up in Dubai while reaching the semifinals of the recent Canadian Open. She showed her undeniable hardcourt class in that Montreal run, beating reigning Grand Slam champs Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys (both in straight sets). She has also threatened a big Grand Slam run this season, reaching at least the 3rd round in all three previous events. She isn’t a one-dimensional baseline hugger, incorporating an array of drop-shots and slices. She is also a highly accomplished net player, often advancing when she’s in control of points.
This will be Belinda Bencic’s first US Open appearance since becoming a mother. The versatile Swiss shot-maker has a solid history in this event, reaching the semifinals in 2019 and quarterfinals in 2014 and 2021. She showed real promise in the early portion of the season, reaching the 4th round of the Aussie Open before winning her first title as a mom at the Abu Dhabi Open. She reached the quarterfinal at Indian Wells but suffered through a lean clay-court swing, culminating in her withdrawing from the French Open due to an arm injury. But that was soon forgotten, as she would go on to produce one of the best performances of her career at Wimbledon, beating the likes of Alexandrova and Andreeva en route to a semifinal finish (she was trounced by Swiatek). She has underwhelmed in the US Open precursors, but will no doubt elevate her level in New York.
Longshot Options (seeded 21+)- Naomi Osaka (23) and Veronika Kudermetova (24)
Naomi Osaka is sure to be a popular longshot pick this year. The two-time US Open champ has been slowly rediscovering her form in the last few years. She has gone through a lot, recovering from injuries and mental health issues while also having her first child. She has only shown glimpses of her best form, finishing runner-up in Auckland at the start of the year. But she recently gave us more than just a glimpse of her best tennis, beating four seeded players en route to a runner-up finish in Montreal (her first WTA 1000 final since 2022). She blew a one set lead in the final, eventually falling in three to Canadian breakout star Victoria Mboko. Still, she had done more than enough that fortnight to convince me that she’s back. She moved remarkably well, hitting crisp groundstrokes off both wings. She opted to skip Cincinnati and should feel reinvigorated going into the year’s final slam.
Sure, aggressive Russian baseliner Veronika Kudermetova hasn’t reached a WTA final since beating Pegula in the 2023 Pan Pacific Open. The hard-hitting Russian has struggled with consistency but appears to have rediscovered her mojo during this North American swing, pushing Gauff to three sets in Montreal before a sensational semifinal run in Cincinnati. She served brilliantly in Cincy, colleting 40 aces over her six matches. She really pushed Jasmie Paolini to her limit in a semifinal that could have gone either way. While she doesn’t have the most accomplished Grand Slam pedigree, she did reach the 4th round at this year’s Aussie Open (her last Grand Slam appearance on a hard court).
