The French Open women’s competition needed a jolt. Swiatek’s dominance of the event- as impressive as it has been- had begun to sap the life out of the prognostication process.
2025 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Women’s French Open Championships
Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France (Outdoor Clay)
25th May- 8th June
The French Open women’s competition needed a jolt. Swiatek’s dominance of the event- as impressive as it has been- had begun to sap the life out of the prognostication process. The Pole has won four of the last five editions of the tournament, and a feeling of Rafa-esque monotony was starting to set in. Well, it appears we have got that much-needed jolt. If somebody had told you a year ago that Swiatek- fresh off of winning her 4th Roland Garros crown- would not win for another year, what would you have told them? You probably would have suggested they seek psychiatric help to treat their delusions. But Swiatek looks a shadow of her former self and goes into this year’s French Open (unbelievably) as the 5th seed. Can she prove all the naysayers wrong and continue her Roland Garros dominance? Or is it time for a new clay-court queen?
World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka has been in imperious form this season, becoming the first woman since Hingis in 2001 to reach six finals in the first four months of the year. She has created a lovely cushion between herself and the rest of the field and will go into this as an undisputed favourite. Former French Open finalist Coco Gauff appears to have turned the corner in recent weeks, overcoming the worst of her serving demons to secure the 2nd seeding (meaning she can only meet Sabalenka in a prospective final). That’s huge. There’s no shortage of other possible contenders, with the likes of Paolini, Pegula and Zheng emerging as viable clay-court alternatives to the so-called ‘Big-Three’. There are also a few dangerous unseeded options this coming fortnight, with Grand Slam heavyweights such as Naomi Osaka and Ons Jabeur lurking in the background. With Swiatek wobbling and the rest of the draw smelling blood, this promises to be one of the most exciting French Opens in recent memory.
Past Champions
2024: Iga Swiatek bt Jasmine Paolini (6-2, 6-1)
2023: Iga Swiatek bt Karolina Muchova (6-2, 5-7, 6-4)
2022: Iga Swiatek bt Coco Gauff (6-1, 6-3)
2021: Barbora Krejcikova bt Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (6-1, 2-6, 6-4)
2020: Iga Swiatek bt Sofia Kenin (6-4, 6-1)
2019: Ashleigh Barty by Marketa Vondrousova (6-1, 6-3
Clay-court precursors this season
Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula bt Sofia Kenin (6-3, 7-5)
Copa Colsanitas: Camilia Osorio bt Katarzyna Kawa (6-3, 6-3)
Stuttgart Open: Jelena Ostapenko bt Aryna Sabalenka (6-4, 6-1)
Open de Rouen: Elina Svitolina bt Olga Danilovic (6-4, 7-6)
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka bt Coco Gauff (6-3, 7-6)
Italian Open: Jasmine Paolini bt Coco Gauff (6-4, 6-2)
Internationaux de Strasbourg and Morocco Open: in progress
The Big Three- Aryna Sabalenka (1), Coco Gauff (2) and Iga Swiatek (5)
What more can be said about World No.1 Sabalenka? The towering Belarusian has become a Grand Slam machine in recent seasons, reaching the semifinal stage or better in eight of her last ten Grand Slam appearances (and this for a player who was long considered a soft touch on the big stage). The 2023 French Open semifinalist has been on a tear this year, bringing a 34-6 record into this event. She has looked solid on clay, reaching the Stuttgart final while claiming her 3rd title of the season in Madrid. An illness saw Sabalenka crash out of last year’s French Open quarterfinals and she will be desperate for some redemption this time around. She has certainly added some variety to her power-based game of late, using crafty drop-shots and sneaky net approaches to keep opponents guessing. It would take a brave man to bet against the seemingly inevitable Sabalenka.
This has been a somewhat surreal campaign for former US Open champ Coco Gauff. The American- who won last year’s season-ending WTA Finals- started the season in excellent fashion, helping USA retain the United Cup before a respectable quarterfinal run at the Aussie Open. But she capitulated in the following month, failing to go beyond the quarterfinals in her next five events. The American struggled with that double-fault count (she has served more doubles than any other player this season). Her forehand also stared to falter. However, she burst into life during the clay-court swing, leaning on her exceptional physicality and defensive skills to reach back-to-back finals in Madrid and Rome. Her 6-1, 6-1 Madrid demolition of Swiatek was monumental, marking her first clay-court victory against the clay-court demigoddess. But her momentum was halted in the Rome decider, as she committed 55 errors in comprehensive defeat at the hands of Paolini (Jim Courier was hyper-critical of that forehand wing. I do wonder whether she might suffer a similar fate as we approach the business end of the tournament.
I think Swiatek’s issues date back to last year’s Olympic Games, where Qinwen Zheng ended her 26-match Roland Garros unbeaten streak in the semifinals. Swiatek was left emotionally devastated by the result and her aura of invincibility- even on clay- had imploded. She faced a one-month doping suspension towards the end of last season and she just hasn’t been able to steady the ship this year (despite an encouraging semifinal run at the Aussie Open). She is yet to reach a final this season and has been on the receiving end of some Swiatek-esque routs (that 6-1, 6-1 Madrid defeat to Gauff was particularly painful). So, what do I make of her chances this year? I think they are actually pretty good. Honestly, I think she may benefit from lowered expectations. Her heavy topspin and pure athleticism have made her virtually unbeatable on these surfaces in recent seasons. She just needs to pick up a few early thrashings and muscle-memory will do the rest. She must try to keep that first-serve percentage up (she has been particularly vulnerable on serve this season).
My Top Ten Picks- Jasmine Paolini (6) and Qinwen Zheng (8)
World No.3 Jessica Pegula looked poised for a sensational clay-court campaign after winning her maiden clay-court title in Charleston. Things haven’t really worked out for the American, who has gone 3-4 in her last four outings. The steady baseliner is 28-9 for the year but I just think there are too many other in-form players for her to mount a credible title run. Mirra Andreeva reached the semifinals here last season and took the tour by storm earlier this year, winning back-to-back WTA 1000 titles. The 18-year-old has run out of gas in recent months and I struggle to see her withstanding the physical demands of a two-week clay-court ordeal. Emma Navarro has been a bit of a non-entity this year while Badosa isn’t likely to figure hugely after just recovering from another two-month injury layoff. Madison Keys is the top ten player who just misses out on a selection. The reigning Aussie Open champion has undoubted Grand Slam pedigree, reaching the semifinal stage or better in seven slams. She reached the Madrid quarters but underwhelmed in Rome. Still, Keys tends to save her best tennis for these occasions.
Jasmine Paolini is going to prove a popular choice this year. The Italian pocket-rocket was a breath of fresh air last year, finishing runner up at both the French Open and Wimbledon Championships. The diminutive Italian seems to have a perfect game for the natural surfaces, combining Mauresmo-level power (especially on that forehand wing) with the all-court variety of Justine Henin. She started this season poorly, struggling with increased expectations following her breakout 2024 success. But she has found her groove in recent months, reaching the semifinal or better in three of his last four events. She began her clay-court campaign in fine style, going out to Sabalenka in the Stuttgart semis. She struggled on the quickish Madrid clay but came into her own in Rome, becoming the first Italian since Raffaella Reggi in 1985 to win the title. She thrived in the sluggish conditions, seeing off a resurgent Gauff in a lopsided semifinal.
8th seed Qinwen Zheng has won all three of her career clay-court finals and I think she is primed for a tilt at this year’s title. She broke Swiatek’s stranglehold of Court Phillippe-Chatrier last year, taking down the Pole en route to the Olympic Gold Medal. She never enjoyed a strong start to the season, losing focus during the absence of coach Pere Riba (who took time away after surgery. Her results improved upon Riba’s return, as she picked up back-to-back quarterfinal finishes in the ‘Sunshine Double’. She looked mightily impressive in her final Roland Garros warm-up, beating Sabalenka en route to a semifinal finish in Rome (she lost to Gauff in a nail-biting final-four clash). Crucially, those Rome sandpits are analogous to the ones players will face at Roland Garros. Zheng has beaten peak-Swiatek and peak-Sabalenka on clay (taking down the Belarusian at the 7th time of asking). Zheng has had her own serving issues but she appears to have found some consistency from the back of the court.
The Mid-tier Choices- (11-20)- Elina Svitolina (14) and Jelena Ostapenko (20)
Could this finally be Elina Svitolina’s chance to break her French Open quarterfinal hoodoo? A four-time Roland Garros quarterfinalist, Svitolina has developed a reputation for wilting in high-pressure moments. I believe she has possibly suffered from being the de facto spokesperson for the Ukrainian cause (it just adds another layer of self-imposed pressure). Still, she is a seven-time WTA clay-court champion and she arrives in excellent form on the dirt, going 12-2 in her last three events. She won an understrength Open de Rouen before an excellent semifinal run in Madrid (where she gave Sabalenka a really good match). She went down in the Rome quarters and withdrew from Strasbourg at the last moment. The brilliant counterpuncher has upped her aggression in recent seasons, hoping to gain an added edge in the closing stages of Slams.
My final mid-range option is the one and only Jelena Ostapenko. Sometimes it feels like the enigmatic Latvian has been the bane of my journalistic career. You just never know which Ostapenko you are going to get. The 2017 French Open champ plays a brand of hell-is-for-heroes tennis that can frustrate even the most seasoned pundit. This season, she has been eliminated in the first round of six events (including the Aussie Open). However, she also finished runner-up at the WTA 1000 event in Qatar. More importantly, she won the 2nd clay-court title of her career in Stuttgart (her first clay-court title since that unheralded run to the 2017 Roland Garros crown). Moreover, she pulverized a visibly shaken Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 6-1 in the final. She is one of the most unpredictable players in the world but has reached the quarterfinal stage or better in six slams. I just have a feeling that she could be dangerous this year (especially after that Stuttgart triumph).
Longshot Options- (21 and higher)- Peyton Stearns (27) and Danielle Collins (unseeded)
I had a bit of a mental tussle in this category, with three Americans vying for two spots. I opted to pass on 2020 French Open runner-up Sofia Kenin. The former Aussie Open champ clearly has the Grand Slam pedigree. She also started her clay-court campaign in terrific fashion, going down to Jessica Pegula in the Charleston final. But she has gone 2-3 since then and I think her body may struggle with the physically demanding two-week stretch. My first longshot option is Peyton Stearns. The hard-hitting American arrives with excellent immediate form under her belt, reaching the final 16 in Madrid before a spectacular semifinal run in Rome (in conditions very similar to those at Roland Garros). Both of the feisty American’s WTA Finals have been played on clay (she won her maiden title in Rabat last season). I just think that her nuggety movement and explosive forehand make her a wonderful sleeper option.
My next option is the ever-popular Danielle Collins (no sarcasm intended). The combustible American has undeniable clay-court pedigree, winning the 2021 Palermo event and reaching two finals last season (winning in Charleston and finishing runner-up in Strasbourg). She also reached the quarters here back in 2020. Collins is a pure ball-striker who has the ability to penetrate these slow surfaces. The former Aussie Open finalist hasn’t quite hit the heights of last season. However, she has been sneakily impressive on clay, reaching the quarters in Charleston before thrashing Iga Swiatek in Rome. She is currently scheduled to play in the Strasbourg quarters and is working a 6-2 clay-court record. Collins has the capacity to elevate her game and will revel in her ‘brash American’ persona.
