This promises to be a fascinating rematch of last year’s final. Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka enjoyed serene passage into this year’s semifinals, with Marketa Vondrousova pulling up injured during her pre-match training session.
2025 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
US Open Tennis
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre, New York City (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Semifinals Preview- 5th September
Aryna Sabalenka (1) 0.31 vs Jessica Pegula (4) 2.4
2023 Wimbledon champ Vondrousova must be wondering what she did in a past life to deserve such horrendous injury misfortune. In any event, Sabalenka rolls on, becoming only the 8th woman in history to reach all four Grand Slam semifinals in the same year on two separate occasions (a list that includes the likes of Navratilova, Graf, Hingis and Serena Williams). That tells you all you need to know about the magnitude of that achievement. Yet to drop a set this fortnight, Sabalenka has been in absolute cruise control, already ensuring that she ends the tournament as the No.1 player in the world. However, she has stuttered in crucial moments this season, losing to Keys in the Aussie Open final before throwing away a one-set lead against Gauff in the French. Still, Sabalenka- who has won three of the last five hardcourt slams- is playing with real swagger in New York. She has the sort of powerhouse game that makes her virtually unbeatable on her day.
Jessica Pegula continued her love affair with New York, breezing past Barbora Krejcikova 6-3, 6-3 to book a 2nd consecutive US Open semifinal. She broke through the Grand Slam quarterfinal barrier at last year’s US Open, ultimately finishing runner-up to Aryna Sabalenka. She has now recorded her 2nd Grand Slam semifinal run, failing to drop a set in the process. She came out on fire against Krejcikova, winning 12 of the first 15 points. Pegula hit with typical depth and consistency against the two-time Grand Slam champ, moving the Czech from corner to corner. She was particularly dismissive on return, winning an imposing 69% of her 2nd serve return points. Pegula has enjoyed success on all surfaces this season, winning titles in Austin, Charleston and Bad Homburg. She enjoyed a sold run to the Miami Open final (losing to a certain Belarusian in the final). She has dropped just 23 games en route to this year’s semifinals but sceptics could point to a favourable draw- she is yet to meet a top-50 player.
The Verdict: Pegula to win in three at 6.4– Sabalenka has dominated this rivalry, currently leading Pegula 7-2 in the head-to-head stakes. The Belarusian hasn’t dropped a set against Pegula on a hardcourt for the last two years, with significant victories in last year’s US Open final and this year’s Miami Open final. I still think that Pegula could cause an upset here. She is playing fearless tennis and the rambunctious New York crowd is going to be right behind her. Sabalenka has wilted in this season’s biggest moments, and this atmosphere is likely to approach Davis Cup levels of insanity.
Amanda Anisimova (8) vs Naomi Osaka (23)
Well, that was certainly a turn up for the books. I don’t think many people gave Amanda Anisimova much of a chance in her quarterfinal clash with six-time Grand Slam champ Iga Swiatek. The Pole humiliated her in the Wimbledon final and the general consensus was that she would fold under pressure once again. But the American took the fight to Swiatek, disrupting the Pole’s rhythm with some of the best ball-striking you are likely to see. She hit 23 winners to Swiatek’s 13, with that double-handed backhand the driving force behind her 6-3, 6-4 win. She served solidly, winning 71% of her first-serve points. But she was even more impressive on return, demolishing an unusually erratic Swiatek delivery (she won 67% of her 2nd serve return points). Anisimova is now 36-11 for the season and will be competing in her maiden US Open semifinal. She has come on in leaps and bounds this year, winning a maiden WTA 1000 event in Doha before that bittersweet runner-up finish at SW19. Can she keep that positive energy going as she squares up against two-time US Open champ Naomi Osaka?
Naomi Osaka had a much tougher time of it in her quarterfinal clash, eventually overcoming a visibly ailing Karolina Muchova 6-4, 7-6. It was an extremely high-quality encounter, with Osaka keeping her composure to ease through the 2nd set tiebreak. Osaka looked in supreme touch, winning 75% of her first-serve points while striking 30 winners to Muchova’s 21. Osaka will be competing in her first Grand Slam semifinal since the 2021 Aussie Open (which she would go on to win). Osaka has looked rejuvenated since teaming up with Swiatek’s former coach Tomasz Wiktorowski, finishing runner-up in Montreal prior to this incredible performance. The Pole has helped Osaka regain her mobility while also emphasizing strategic flexibility. Osaka has occasionally looked to hit herself out of trouble these past few years. She was more selective against Muchova, extending rallies to create opportunities for easy winners. She looks remarkably composed and will require some beating.
The Verdict: Osaka to win in straight sets at – Anisimova leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning two Grand Slam meetings back in 2022. To be fair, Osaka’s career was in a state of flux in 2022 (she had dealt with growing mental health issues in 2021). Osaka has looked like a different beast this fortnight, combining raw power, nimble athleticism and strategic nous. Swiatek was poor against Anisimova and Osaka won’t be sucked into a pure slugfest.
