The Australian Open continues this week as Iga Swiatek faces Emma Navarro while Madison Keys goes up against Elina Svitolina in the competition’s quarter-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park
Selected QF matches – 22 January
Iga Swiatek 1/16 | Emma Navarro 15/2
I never really gave Swiatek too much of a chance coming into this year’s Aussie Open: she was in middling form during the United Cup and has struggled with the speed of these courts in recent seasons.
But the Pole has been in utterly devastating form in Melbourne, crushing her opponents with more vitriol than Sabalenka. She thumped hapless lucky loser Eva Lys 6-0,6-1 in their round of 16 clash, winning 81% of her first-serve points.
The 2022 Aussie Open semifinalist was brutal off both wings, turning the ‘contest’ into little more than an exhibition match. Swiatek has spent a little over four hours on court this fortnight, dropping just ten games in the process.
I think she has benefitted enormously from diminished expectations this fortnight, free to operate in the shadows while the press wax lyrically over Sabalenka and Gauff.
Her forehand looks devastating and it’s going to take a mammoth effort to bring her down.
8th seeded American Emma Navarro should look towards the parable of the tortoise and the hare for inspiration. She has taken a completely different route to this year’s quarterfinals, requiring three sets in every match and spending over ten hours on the court.
She was pushed to the limit in her 4th round clash with Daria Kasatkina, coming up clutch with some aggressive tennis in the closing stages of the match. Navarro has surprised me after losing two of her three Aussie Open precursor matches, showing plenty of trademark grit to reach her 3rd consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal (she reached the semifinals at Flushing Meadows).
Navarro enjoyed a splendid 2024 campaign, winning the 3rd most matches on the entire WTA Tour (behind Sabalenka and Swiatek). Can she dig deep once again against a red-hot Swiatek? I maintain that these courts don’t really suit her style.
She uses heavy topspin on her forehand wing and likes to mix things up with slices and drop-shots. I still believe the more powerful flatter hitters could potentially dominate her.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets 1/4
This will be their first career meeting (which is quite rare amongst fellow top ten players). I think that the Americans may struggle against the explosive-hitting power of the Pole.
She hasn’t played Swiatek before and will take some time to adjust to her unique brand of in-your-face aggression. And time is a precious commodity in best-of-three set tennis.
I expect the Pole to come out the blocks fast, with Navarro possibly offering more obstinate resistance in the 2nd. Still, a straight-sets victory looks on the cards. For value, I might back the first set to be under 8.5 games at 97/100 (I feel like Swiatek could devastate her in that first set).
Madison Keys 49/10 | Elina Svitolina 31/20
This promises to be a fascinating clash between two of the best players in the world without a major title. Madison Keys just produced arguably her best performance of the season, taking down former Aussie Open finalist Elena Rybakina in a wonderful three-set match.
Keys experienced a lull in the 2nd set but rallied in the 3rd, clinching the match with her 27th winner (which was fittingly a destructive forehand). Keys has been one of the most consistent Grand Slam players of the last decade, looking to secure a 3rd Aussie Open semifinal appearance (she reached the final four in 2015 and 2022).
She has an imposing record at Melbourne Park, improving to 31-10 with victory over Rybakina. She leads the tour in wins this year, improving to 10-1 with her 4th round win.
The Adelaide champ has now won nine consecutive matches and appears to be in some of the best form of her career. Her strong serve and flat, powerful forehand make her an ideal candidate for success at Melbourne Park.
Elina Svitolina will look to keep the vibes going after her husband Gael Monfils was forced to withdraw midway through his grueling 4th round tie with Ben Shelton. Svitolina will be playing her 12th Grand Slam quarterfinal and her first Aussie Open quarterfinal since 2019.
The Ukrainian will be looking to progress beyond the quarterfinal stage for the first time in four attempts. She looked impressive in her 4th round win over Kudermetova, constantly keeping the pressure on the Russian with her brilliant return game.
She has only dropped one set this fortnight, coming from a set down to take down 2024 breakout star Jasmine Paolini. A three-time Grand Slam semifinalist, Svitolina had a fairly underwhelming 2024 campaign, ending the season early to have long-awaited foot surgery.
She skipped the Aussie Open precursors and has looked in sparkling form from day one. Formerly a more conservative baseliner, the Ukrainian has certainly looked to play more front-foot tennis these past two years.
The Verdict: Svitolina to win in three 48/10
Keys leads a tight head-to-head rivalry 3-2, winning their most recent meeting at the 2022 Adelaide International. Keys is playing some high-octane hardcourt tennis and will test Svitolina’s defensive prowess to the limit.
I just have a feeling that the Ukrainian could pull off a mini upset here. She is mixing up her game nicely this fortnight, adopting a more aggressive posture when necessary. She has great defensive powers and should be able to deal with Keys’ forehand better than most. Still, the smart money is on this to go all the way.
