Sabalenka remains on course for a 3rd successive Aussie Open title, grinding out a three-set win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
2025 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Victoria (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Semifinals Preview- 23rd January
Aryna Sabalenka (1) (24/100) vs Paula Badosa (11) (29/10)
Sabalenka remains on course for a 3rd successive Aussie Open title, grinding out a three-set win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The Russian should take some heart from the result, ending Sabalenka’s 25-set winning streak at this venue. Sabalenka is looking to become the first woman to win three successive Melbourne titles since Martina Hingis (97-99). I don’t think anyone- myself included- foresaw such a tight encounter. Sabalenka dominated Pavlyuchenkova in the first set but gradually lost her focus (she was broken five consecutive times by the aggressive Russian). That was Sabalenka’s weakest serving performance in recent memory: she won only 63% of her first-serve points. Still, she found her best tennis in the crucial moments and extended her Aussie Open winning streak to 19 matches. Sabalenka has become a real Grand Slam monster in recent years, reaching the semifinals in nine of her last 12 slams. In the last five years, only Djokovic (86) has won more Grand Slam matches than Sabalenka (71, alongside great rival Iga Swiatek). Perhaps a good old-fashioned duel was exactly what Sabalenka needed as she entered the business end of this tournament.
2024 WTA Comeback Player of the Year Paula Badosa has just gone from strength to strength this fortnight, reaching her maiden Grand Slam semifinal with victory over in-form Coco Gauff (breaking the American’s 13-match winning streak in the process). I thought Badosa was destined for early retirement (especially following that tear-filled exit at Stuttgart last year). But cortisone injections have proved a miracle cure for her, and she is currently playing some of the best tennis of her career. To be fair, Gauff was the chief architect of her downfall, committing a staggering 41 unforced errors in two sets of tennis. Still, Badosa was the one forcing the errors, stepping in to annihilate any meek 2nd serves (she won 65% of 2nd serve return points). Badosa matched Gauff from the back of the court, with that forehand wing proving particularly effective against the American. Badosa is playing an extremely impressive brand of tennis this fortnight, looking to be aggressive whenever she can. She will need to continue in that spirit if she wishes to upset Sabalenka. Incidentally, these two are extremely good friends off-court, with Sabalenka referring to Badosa as a soulmate.
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three at 29/10- Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 5-2, winning all three of last year’s meetings. Despite some minor serving yips against Pavlyuchenkova, Sabalenka is the obvious favorite. Badosa has been returning like a demon and will put pressure on any 2nd delivery. I think she will need to approach the net on occasion to disrupt the Sabalenka (she won 6 out of 9 net points against Gauff). Badosa is playing well enough to take a set, but I think that
Sabalenka’s Grand Slam experience will come through in three. She came up clutch in the latter stages of her semifinal match and I think she will book her place in a 3rd successive final.
Iga Swiatek (2) (17/100) vs Madison Keys (19) (38/10)
Iga Swiatek sailed into this year’s semifinals after a comfortable 6-1, 6-2 victory over the nuggety Emma Navarro. The match was probably a bit tighter than that scoreline suggested, with the American chasing down everything she possibly could. But Swiatek’s relentless aggression ultimately proved too much for the up-and-coming American. The Pole has now matched her previous best result in Melbourne (a semifinal run back in 2022). Swiatek served at an insane level, winning 81% of his first-serve points and facing only break-point opportunity. As I have said all week, Swiatek has drifted under the radar this fortnight, with many giving her little chance of claiming this title. But she has been the most devastating player in the entire draw, dropping just 14 games en route to the semis. Swiatek has barely got out of first gear all week and looks destined for a crunch match with Sabalenka. However, she must first take down the player with the most wins this season: Madison Keys.
And the show goes on. Madison Keys survived an epic duel with Elina Svitolina to advance to a 3rd Aussie Open semifinal (and 7th Grand Slam semifinal overall). Keys has enjoyed a magnificent start to the season, winning in Adelaide before these Melbourne shenanigans. But she certainly did not have it all her own way against a gutsy Svitolina. The Ukrainian came out swinging, matching Keys’ intensity to take the first set. That seemed to awaken something inside Keys, who upped the aggression and started to dictate the tempo of the match. Svitolina reverted to type and became too defensive. Keys hit 49 winners to 41 unforced errors while Svitolina hit 20 winners to 15 winners. That tells you all you need to know. Keys was the one who forced the issue, using her bombastic forehand to pummel the Ukrainian into submission. Keys was also sublime at the net, winning an incredible 23 of 26 points in the forecourt. Keys, with her booming serve and flat-hitting style, is one of the players who could rush Swiatek on these surfaces.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets at 51/100- Swiatek leads the head-to-head 4-1, winning both 2024 meetings in straight sets. However, they share the hardcourt spoils at one win apiece, with Keys winning in straight sets at the 2022 Cincinnati Open. As I said earlier, Keys has the power and depth of shot to really trouble the Pole. However, Swiatek looks like a woman possessed this week and Keys has just played two tough three-set matches (not to mention that Adelaide ran on the eve of this event). I think she may run out of gas and Swiatek should progress to a maiden Aussie Open final.
