Damien Kayat shares his betting tips for the second round Australian Open matches which sees Tomos Machac face Reily Opelka and Tommy Paul go head to head with Japanese veteran Kei Nishikori.
2025 Australian Open
Melbourne Park
Selected 2nd Round Matches- 15th January
Tomas Machac 4/11 | Reily Opelka 7/4
American giant Reily Opelka has had a tumultuous start to his comeback season. The servebot has endured a torrid spell with injuries over the past few years, not playing a single match in 2023 and only managing 15 competitive matches last year.
But he started this year in seriously impressive fashion, riding that monstrous serve to a runner-up finish in Brisbane (his first final in three years). He suffered a bit of a scare in the final, forced to withdraw through injury while trailing Jiri Lehecka in the opening set.
He withdrew from Auckland and went into his first-round encounter under a bit of an injury cloud. And he wasn’t playing his best tennis against Gauthier Onclin, dropping the first set and finding himself in some vulnerable spots. But managed to pull through in four sets, serving 38 aces in the process.
Opelka- a former Masters 1000 runner-up- is certainly not a player you want to meet in the early stages of any event. He is one of the biggest servers in the history of the game and Tomas Machac will need to be at his sharpest to contain it.
Czech No.1 Machac has enjoyed a stress-free start to his Aussie Open campaign, taking down Sumit Nagal in a routine straight-sets win. He was impeccable on his delivery, winning 80% of his first-serve points.
Machac made some wonderful strides in 2024, breaking into the top 30 in the world courtesy of some eye-catching results.
He reached the first final of his career last year, finishing runner-up to Rudd in the Geneva final. But he really came into his own in the latter portion of the campaign, reaching the 4th round of a slam for the first time in his career at the US Open.
That result obviously gave him some confidence, as he would go on to reach the semifinals of the Japan Open before a maiden Masters 1000 semifinal run in Shanghai (he would go down to Sinner in the semis).
Machac started the year in volatile fashion, raging at his own teammates before abruptly retiring in his crunch United Cup tie with Taylor Fritz. He will need to keep his temper in check as he comes up against the serving juggernaut that is Opelka.
The Verdict: Machac to win in five at 10/3
This will be their first career meeting. This ‘David and Goliath’ match won’t be one for the purists. Opelka will do what he does, racing through his service games with robotic precision.
Machac will need to hang deep in the court and hope for a few 2nd serves. I think this one could go the distance, with Opelka struggling to compete in rallies while Machac battles to break down that nuclear service action. Ultimately, Machac’s superior physical conditioning could see him over the line.
Tommy Paul 2/5 | Kei Nishikori 19/10
This should be an entertaining clash between two five-set marathon survivors. 12th seed Tommy Paul came through a surprisingly tough five-set encounter with home favourite Christopher O’Connell.
It was a high-quality match, with the Aussie obviously buoyed by playing in front of his home support. Paul ultimately hit 66 winners to 62 unforced errors, winning 80% of his first-serve points.
I personally think that the versatile American will benefit from that high-quality match. Paul is a durable baseliner whose game has evolved in the last 18 months or so. He was excellent last season, winning three titles with a compelling 45-19 win-loss record.
He started this season in encouraging fashion, going out at the semifinal stage of the Adelaide International. Paul loves these quick conditions, breaking onto the scene with that memorable 2023 semifinal run.
You must admire the tenacity of 35-year-old Japanese veteran Kei Nishikori. The former US Open runner-up produced a comeback for the ages in his first-round match with Brazilian Thiago Monterio, earning the 5th two-set comeback win of his career.
The result improved the ironman’s incredible five-set record to 29-8 (the 2nd best- behind Djokovic- of active players). Nishikori’s career has been devastated by a host of injuries, but he is currently enjoying a late-career renaissance. It all started in last year’s Montreal Masters, where the indefatigable Nishikori reached his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal in five years.
He would reach the quarters of the Japan Open before winning an 8th career Challenger event in Helsinki. And he started this season in similar fashion, reaching his first ATP Final in six years at the Hong Kong Open. Nishikori has been a consistent performer in this event, reaching four quarterfinals between 2012 and 2019. But how will his body feel after yet another gruelling three-hour epic?
The Verdict: Paul to win in four at 11/5
Nishikori leads the head-to-head 1-0, winning their only previous match at the 2017 Washington Open. I think that Nishikori- the king of five-set clashes- is going to struggle to deal with the physical toll of that first match.
Paul is a versatile player and his ability to finish points at the net should give him more options that Nishikori (it will also allow him to shorten points when necessary).
