The Italian Open continues this week as Aryna Sabalenka faces Qinwen Zheng while Alex Zverev takes on Lorenzo Musetti in the quarter-final stage. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 ATP/WTA Tour – ATP/WTA 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico
Selected QF – 14 May
WTA 1000
Aryna Sabalenka 31/100 | Qinwen Zheng 47/20
World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka is on fire this season, leading the tour in wins and points (she has won three titles in six finals).
She created a little slice of history last month, becoming the first woman since Hingis in 2001 to reach six finals in the first four months of the year. Sure, she lost the most important final in Melbourne (Madison Keys was sensational that day).
This will be her 4th WTA 1000 quarterfinal of the year (she won titles in Miami and Madrid). Sabalenka has looked particularly impressive on clay this season. She finished runner-up in Stuttgart before claiming that Madrid title.
And she has battled through these slow Rome conditions, thrashing Potapova before coming back from a set down in a gruelling encounter with former Aussie Open champ Sofia Kenin.
She looked back to her efficient best in her round of 16 clash with Marta Kostyuk, winning in straight sets to improve to 12-1 on clay this year. A finalist here last season, Sabalenka looks well poised to break her Rome duck this week.
Next up for the Belarusian is 2024 Olympic champ Qinwen Zheng. This has been a bit of a scattershot year for the elegant Chinese player. Zheng started the year poorly, struggling with serving woes while coach Pere Riba was sidelined with injury.
She has looked much more like herself since Riba’s return, reaching three successive quarterfinals at Indian Wells, Miami and Charleston. She was shocked by Potapova in Madrid, but looks much more assured on these slow Rome dustbowls.
She is yet to drop a set this fortnight, beating Bianca Andreescu 7-5,6-1 in their round of 16 clash (this despite nine double-faults). Zheng is a powerful hitter who loves to hug the baseline. She understands the intricacies of clay and doesn’t mind adopting a more strategic approach in slow conditions (obviously winning Olympic Gold at Roland Garros last year).
She also happens to be a two-time Palermo champ. Furthermore, this is the 3rd successive year that she has reached the Rome quarters. She clearly enjoys slower conditions that give her time to set up her powerful groundstrokes.
The Verdict: Sabelenka to win in three 3/1
The Belarusian leads this head-to-head 6-0, winning in straight sets when they met in Miami earlier this year. Sabalenka also beat the Chinese starlet in last year’s Aussie Open final. However, this will be their maiden clay-court meeting.
I think that Zheng has more of a chance in these ultra-slow conditions. Sabalenka has never won here before and struggled against Kenin in an earlier round. Zheng should be more rally-resistant in these conditions. Still, Sabalenka’s gargantuan power should give her the edge in three.
ATP Masters 1000
Alex Zverev 64/100 | Lorenzo Musetti 12/10
Alex Zverev is fast becoming the king of Rome. The No.2 seed wasted little time in his round of 16 clash, vanquishing the up-and-coming Arthur Fils 7-6, 6-1 in a textbook display of clay-court tennis.
The two-time Rome champion hit 19 winners to 19 unforced errors (which is pretty good going in conditions as slow as these). The result improved his overall Rome record to 27-6 (staggering stuff). The German seems to be coming into his best form right in time for another Roland Garros title push.
Zverev lost last year’s French Open championship match in highly controversial fashion, with a lack of Hawk-Eye technology costing him a chance of a maiden Grand Slam title.
He started this season with yet more Grand Slam heartache, going down to Jannik Sinner in the final of the Aussie Open. He has struggled for consistency this year, perhaps overwhelmed by the pressure of trying to close the rankings gap on a banned Sinner (who is obviously back in action this fortnight).
Zverev couldn’t pass the round of 16 in his first four Masters 1000 events. But he did win on the Munich clay, and he looks back to his best in what is possibly his favourite tournament.
Sport is full of crazy little firsts. Lorenzo Musetti finally overcame Medvedev at the 3rd time of asking, beating the Russian in unique circumstances yesterday.
The Italian had Medvedev’s number yesterday, using his outrageous variety to toy with the Russian. But the Italian was made to wait for victory, as a torrential downpour forced his match to be suspended on match point! Musetti got the job done after the break, winning a 13-shot rally to prevail 7-5, 6-4.
He was brilliant in the match, hitting 19 winners to just 15 unforced errors. He started quite slowly this season, battling a few injury issues along the way. But he has burst into life in this clay-court swing, going 12-2 in his last 14 matches.
He reached a maiden Masters final in Monte-Carlo before another exceptional semifinal run in Madrid. He is yet to drop a set this fortnight, and victory in this match will guarantee three successive Masters 1000 clay-court semifinals.
Musetti has the type of multifaceted game that can exploit these turgid conditions.
The Verdict: Musetti to win in straight sets 11/4
Musetti leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning their most recent meeting at last year’s Vienna indoors. More importantly, Musetti beat the German in straight sets at last year’s Paris Olympics.
I really feel like Musetti could frustrate Rome specialist Zverev. The Italian isn’t going to simply engage in brutal baseline rallies (ala Fils). He will throw in plenty of drop shots, and his mastery of the slice could prove decisive.
