This promises to be an engrossing all-American clash. Top seed Jessica Pegula looked completely at ease in her Bad Homburg opener, cruising past Czech Katerina Siniakova 6-2, 6-3.
2025 ATP Tour/ WTA Tour
ATP 250/ WTA 500
Lexus Eastbourne Open/ Bad Homburg Open
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 24th- 25th June
25th June
WTA 500- Bad Homburg Open
Jessica Pegula (1) 0.57 vs Emma Navarro (5) 1.36
She dominated from start to finish, winning 87% of her first-serve points while winning 50% of all return points. The relentless baseliner is enjoying another consistent campaign, improving to 32-12 with that empathic win over Siniakova. Pegula enjoyed solid early-season hardcourt form, reaching finals in Adelaide, Austin and Miami (beating McCartney Kessler in the Austin final). She then won her 2nd title of the year during the clay-court swing, taking down compatriot Sofia Kenin to claim the Charleston crown. In fact, victory in this event would ensure titles on all three surfaces this season. Pegula has proven to be a more than capable grass-court exponent in the past, reaching the Wimbledon quarters in 2023 and winning in Berlin last year. She looked shaky in Berlin last week, losing in three sets to an inspired Samsonova. But she looks like she means business after that consummate showing against Siniakova (who won this event back in 2023).
5th seeded Emma Navarro has looked impressive this week, beating Marta Kostyuk in her opener before an impressive 6-4, 6-4 win over four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka. Navarro wore the erratic Osaka down with her tenacious play, forcing the Japanese star into a stunning 42 unforced errors. Navarro hasn’t enjoyed the greatest of overall campaigns, failing to go beyond the quarterfinal stage of any event other than her title-winning run at the Merida Open. She has looked decent during the grass-court swing, improving to 4-2 with these two Bad Homburg wins. Navarro clearly has an affinity for these Bad Homburg surfaces, reaching the semifinals in each of the two seasons (she is now 8-2 in this event). She also shone on the biggest stage last year, reaching her maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon. The nuggety American is a solid ball-striker with lovely natural variety, mixing in plenty of slices and drop-shots to exploit the skiddy conditions.
The Verdict: Navarro to win in three at 4.4- Pegula leads the head-to-head 1-0, winning in straight sets when they met at last year’s Miami Open. This promises to be a tight affair, with Navarro and Pegula sporting some decent grass-court credentials. I just think that it makes sense to back the underdog. Wimbledon starts on Monday, meaning that players are unlikely to go for broke in this last warmup event (thus leading to a greater chance of upset wins). Moreover, Navarro has an exceptional record here and has beaten two quality opponents this week. I think her slightly more nuanced use of slice could cause the more belligerent Pegula some problems.
