Reigning French Open champ Carlos Alcaraz appears perfectly poised for his Roland Garros title defence.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome, Italy (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarterfinals and Semifinals- 15th-16th May
16th May- Semifinal
Carlos Alcaraz (3) vs Lorenzo Musetti (8)
Alcaraz improved to 29-5 for the season with his 6-4, 6-4 quarterfinal win over Jack Draper (avenging his recent Indian Wells semifinal defeat). Alcaraz never had things all his own way against Draper, with many of his service games turning into mini epics. The big-serving Brit seemed to win the majority of his service games in no time. But Alcaraz struck when it mattered, converting all four of his break point opportunities (Draper could only take two of his eight chances). The four-time Grand Slam champion has looked phenomenal on clay this season, winning in Monte-Carlo before losing to Holger Rune in the Barcelona final. He is 13-1 on clay this year, dropping just one set this fortnight (to Khachanov). Alcaraz is in uncharted territory, having been eliminated in the 3rd round in his only previous Rome appearance. Alcaraz, with his heavy topspin and insane recovery speed, is ideally suited to these slow, heavy conditions.
This has turned into an incredible tournament for Italian tennis. 23-year-old Lorenzo Musetti delivered another shot-making masterclass in his quarterfinal win, neutering Alex Zverev’s power with grace and guile. Musetti hits 20 winners to 22 unforced errors (a great ratio in these conditions). He toyed with Zverev, throwing in an incredible 20 drop-shots (he won 15). The versatile Italian has been exceptional since the tour turned to clay, improving to 13-2 in his last 15 matches. He has now reached the semifinal all better in all three of this year’s Masters 1000 clay-court events (he finished runner-up in Monte-Carlo). Musetti’s unpredictable style is perfectly suited to these conditions. I just don’t think 20 drop-shots is necessarily going to get the job done against physical phenom Alcaraz.
The Verdict: Musetti to win in three sets at – Alcaraz has dominated this rivalry 4-1, winning their last four consecutive meetings. He got the better of the Italian in the Monte-Carlo final, coming from a set down to take down the physically ailing Musetti. I think that the Italian has a chance of causing an upset here. The home fans adore him and he is yet to drop a set this fortnight. Sure, he may need to tone down the drop-shot against Alcaraz. But I think he still has enough variety to get the job done (especially in his current form).
