This should be a fascinating rematch of last year’s Indian Wells semifinal (won by Medvedev in three sets).
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 11th-12th March
12th March
Daniil Medvedev (5) 0.74 vs Tommy Paul (10) 1.05
This should be a fascinating rematch of last year’s Indian Wells semifinal (won by Medvedev in three sets). Daniil Medvedev has been in the headlines of late, complaining that the new surfaces feel even slower. The Russian has complained about the Indian Wells courts for years but has nonetheless excelled on them, finishing runner-up in each of the last two editions of the event. And he will feel fresh going into this clash, beating Bu Yunchaokete 6-2, 6-2 before Alex Michelson was forced to withdraw from this round of 32 match trailing 2-0 in the first. It’s crazy to think that Medvedev hasn’t won a title since the 2023 Rome Masters. The durable Russian started the year poorly but has flirted with his best form in recent months, reaching the semifinals in Marseille before back-to-back quarterfinals in Qatar and Dubai. Could this be his week to fully reestablish himself as one of the world’s elite hardcourt players? It’s not surprising that Medvedev has enjoyed success here (despite his misgivings with the court speed). He loves standing absurdly deep behind the baseline and the slower conditions allow him more time to make minor adjustments.
Versatile American Tommy Paul is certainly not your prototypical American hardcourt player. He has a solid serve and hits the ball fearsomely off both wings. But he also utilizes plenty of guile, incorporating slice and attacking the net more often than most. This probably explains why he has found decent success in all conditions. He performed brilliantly on slower surfaces last year, reaching the semifinals at Indian Wells and Rome. He started this season in fine style, reaching the semifinals in Adelaide before a solid quarterfinal run at the Aussie Open. He reached the semifinals in Dallas before being forced to withdraw from Acapulco due to a stomach bug (which seemed to afflict a big portion of the field). Paul has looked formidable at Indian Wells, eliminating Boyer and Norrie in efficient straight-sets wins. He was impressive against former Indian Wells champ Norrie, hitting 24 winners to 29 unforced errors in a typically error-strewn Indian Wells match. He was efficient in the forecourt, winning 88% of points when he visited the net. Paul is an accomplished all-court player who seems well suited to these conditions.
The Verdict: Paul to win in three sets at 3.7- Medvedev leads the head-to-head 2-1, crucially claiming victory in last year’s Indian Wells semis. However, it was Paul who won when they last met, taking down the Russian at last year’s Rome Masters. I think that Paul will have a little Indian Wells revenge on his mind here. He has been more consistent than Medvedev this season and his net-play has been simply sensational. Still, Medvedev is the ultimate grinder and this could go all the way.
