Two-time defending Indian Wells champ Carlos Alcaraz was skeptical about any attempts to speed up the courts this year.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 12th March
Carlos Alcaraz (2) 0.13 vs Grigor Dimitrov (14) 4.8
He needn’t have worried, as I don’t think there has been much discernible difference in court speed. In any event, the four-time Grand Slam champion has looked remarkably composed at Indian Wells, not dropping a set in comfortable wins against Quinten Halys and Denis Shapovalov. His reconstructed serving motion worked a treat against Halys- he won 95% of his first-serve points. His round of 32 win over Shapovalov was a scrappier affair, with the Spaniard hitting 15 winners to 17 unforced errors in an error-strewn match. He was punitive on Shapovalov’s 2nd delivery, winning 64% of his 2nd serve return points. Alcaraz has had a bit of an up-and-down campaign, losing in the Aussie Open quarters before triumphing in Rotterdam. His seesaw season continued with an early exit in Qatar. Alcaraz loves playing in these sluggish conditions and will see this as the perfect opportunity to make up some world ranking ground on the suspended Jannik Sinner.
14th seeded Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov has been on the receiving end of some terrible injury misfortune this season. Starting the year ranked inside the top ten, Dimitrov sauntered into the Brisbane semifinals. But he was forced to withdraw midway through his semifinal clash with Jiri Lehecka due to a hip issue. The hip issue persisted and would force him to withdraw from the Aussie Open (making it three successive Grand Slam injury withdrawals for the Bulgarian). He was beaten in the first round of the Qatar Open before having to once again withdraw in Dubai (after O’Connell had bagled him in the first set). However, the Bulgarian has stopped the bleeding at Indian Wells, reaching the round of 16 courtesy of wins over Nuno Borges and Gael Monfils. He showed plenty of character against Monfils, withstanding a thumb injury to dominate a 3rd set tiebreaker. A semifinalist here back in 2021, Dimitrov has the variety in his game to succeed around here (especially with that beautiful backhand slice). But he is going to need to be at his vintage best to take down the two-time defending champ.
The Verdict: Alcaraz to win in straight sets at 0.43- Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 3-2. However, Dimitrov has won both of their meetings on outdoor hardcourts (including a straight-sets thrashing at last year’s Miami Open). But this should be a simple equation for Alcaraz. He loves this arena, using his extraordinary athleticism to grind players down in slowish conditions. Dimitrov is nursing a lingering thumb issue and Alcaraz should be able to move him from pillar to post. Maybe there is some value in backing the first set to be under 8.5 games at 1.85.
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