The ride continues. Madison Keys extended her winning streak to 15 matches after an extraordinary comeback victory over Donna Vekic.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals-
Madison Keys (5) vs Belinda Bencic
Vekic has been returning well this fortnight, and I thought she would Keys some issues. Keys lost the first set and had to dig deep in a hard-fought 2nd set tiebreak. But Vekic capitulated in the decider, with her first serve dropping below 50% for the first time in the match. Keys remained steady, winning 71% of her first-serve points in the decider while wearing Vekic down with her fearsome groundstrokes. Keys has looked a little laboured at times this fortnight, clearly still getting up to pace having not played since that Aussie Open triumph. It will be interesting to see how her body holds up after two epic three-set clashes (against Mertens and Vekic). A flat-hitting power player, Keys has never really got to grips with the demands of Indian Wells in the past (this is only her 2nd ever quarterfinal appearance). However, she is riding a wave at present, grinding out results even when the conditions don’t entirely suit her.
Motherhood appears to have done wonders for Belinda Bencic. The Swiss star only returned to action in October last year, spending most of her time reacclimatizing at lower-tier events. But she has been on an absolute tear this year, improving to 17-4 with her remarkable comeback win against Coco Gauff. It was a brilliant match, with both players probably deserving a quarterfinal slot. But Gauff tightened up in the closing stages of the 3rd set, letting a 40-0 lead slip while serving at 4-4 in the decider. As I predicted beforehand, Bencic put constant pressure on that Gauff serve, winning 67% of her 2nd serve return points. Bencic won in Abu Dhabi and has now reached a WTA 1000 quarterfinal for the first time since the 2023 Canadian Open. Regardless of what happens in this quarterfinal clash, Bencic has ensured that she will reenter the top 45 this week. She appears hellbent on earning a seeding at this year’s French Open and victory in this clash will go a long way to achieving that.
The Verdict: Bencic to win in three sets at – These two share the head-to-head spoils at two wins apiece. Bencic won their most recent meeting, taking down Keys in straight sets at the 2022 Charlston Open. I think that Keys could potentially run out of gas here. Sure, Bencic was dealing with some toe issues in that match against Gauff. But I just think that the 2019 Indian Wells semifinalist is better suited to these conditions. Bencic is a crafty operator, able to fluidly switch between attack and defence. She will create nice crosscourt angles, switching Keys from side to side. Bencic has also been returning tremendously and should be able to withstands the American’s formidable delivery. Still, Keys is on a heater, and I can see her picking up a set.
