This should be a fascinating rematch of last year’s Olympic semifinal (won in upset fashion by Chinese star Zheng).
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals-
Iga Swiatek (2) 0.18 vs Qinwen Zheng (8) 3.8
Iga Swiatek started this season with a couple of heartbreaking defeats, losing to Gauff in the United Cup final and to Keys in an Aussie Open semifinal classic. She never reached a final during the desert swing, thrashed by Ostapenko and Andreeva (in Qatar and Dubai respectively). A two-time champion in this event, the clay-court goddess probably wasn’t exhilarated at the prospect of quicker conditions. However, the conditions haven’t looked much different than usual and Swiatek has been ruthless, dropping just six games en route to a 4th successive Indian Wells quarterfinal. She has created a neat little bit of history this week, becoming the first woman since Moncia Seles in 2002 to lose just six games en route to the final eight here. She was relentless in her round of 16 win over Karolina Muchova, winning 88% of her first-serve points and not facing a single break point in the entire encounter. Swiatek looks in ominous form and it will take something special to halt her momentum.
Qinwen Zheng looks like a different player this week. The Chinese superstar enjoyed an incredible 2024 campaign, claiming Olympic Gold and reaching a maiden Grand Slam final in Melbourne. She ended the year in confident fashion, finishing runner-up to Gauff in the WTA Finals. But Zheng looked completely out of sorts in the opening salvos of the season, going 1-3 in her first four matches. Her serve was malfunctioning badly, and she was really struggling to handle her on-court frustrations. She seems to have reacted positively to the return of coach Pera Riba (who underwent hip surgery in November and couldn’t be by her side in the early stages of the season). Zheng looks like one of those players who benefits from a stabilizing presence. Zheng is yet to drop a set this week, taking down Marta Kostyuk 6-3, 6-2 in her round of 16 clash. She only served one double fault and was relentless on return, winning 54% on all return points. That forehand is looking more accurate, and she will be quietly confident of picking up a 2nd successive upset win over the great Pole.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets at 0.5- Swiatek leads the rivalry 6-1. However, it was Zheng who won their meeting at last year’s Olympics, snapping Swiatek’s 26-match winning streak at Roland Garros. Swiatek hasn’t been the all-conquering, unbeatable presence that she was two years ago. But she has looked awe-inspiring this fortnight and Zheng has still suffered from some serving yips from time to time. I also think that Swiatek’s use of topspin will draw some errors from Zheng’s flatter groundstrokes (especially on that forehand wing). For value, maybe opt for the first set to be under 8.5 games at 1.39.
