Brazilian NextGen sensation Joao Fonesca created some history with his 2nd round triumph over Jenson Brooksby, becoming the youngest man since Tomic in 2011 to reach the 3rd round here (let’s hope that his career doesn’t progress in a similar direction to that of the tortured Aussie).
2025 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Tennis Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London, England (Outdoor Grass-court)
Selected 3rd Round Matches- 4th July
Joao Fonesca 0.44 vs Nicolas Jarry 1.75
To put that into context, Carlos Alcaraz hadn’t reached the 3rd round here at 18. The 2024 NextGen Finals champ has enjoyed a meteoric rise this year, winning two Challenger titles and a maiden ATP Tour title at the Argentina Open. He has also showcased his aptitude for Grand Slam tennis, reaching the 3rd round in Paris prior to this performance. The Brazilian showed some signs of grass-court life in Eastbourne, pushing Taylor Fritz to three sets in their round of 16 clash. He plays a high-octane brand of tennis, using his explosive forehand to dictate the tempo of points. He hit 50 winners against Brooksby, adapting brilliantly to the windy conditions. Fonesca looks mature beyond his years and will feel confident of progressing to the final 16 of a slam for the first time in his promising career.
Veteran Chilean Nicolas Jarry has been one of this year’s surprise revelations. The big-hitting Chilean has struggled this season, bringing a 6-13 record into these championships. Jarry then produced one of the most incredible comebacks of the championships, coming back from two sets against a visibly ailing Holger Rune. Rune appeared to throw some shade at Jarry in the aftermath of his defeat, stating that he would win that match nine times out of ten. In any event, Jarry proved that the result was no fluke with a commanding 2nd round win over up-and-coming American Learner Tien. Jarry was devastating against the left-handed Tien, hitting 39 winners to 17 unforced errors in a fearsome display of baseline hitting. The result saw Jarry match his previous best Wimbledon finish (he reached the 3rd round here back in 2023). I think that Jarry’s brand of high-octane, first-strike tennis works in these oppressively hot conditions. He is playing really aggressively, looking to conserve energy when he can.
The Verdict: Jarry to win in straight sets at 8.6- This will be their first career meeting. I think that Jarry is playing big-boy tennis and should have too much depth and power for Fonesca. Fonesca doesn’t have the most powerful serve and Jarry will consistently challenge him on his own delivery.
Andrey Rublev (14) 0.3 vs Adrian Mannarino 2.45
Andrey Rublev has become a bit of a meme due to his many Grand Slam failings (he has lost all ten of his previous Grand Slam quarterfinal matches). Despite winning in Qatar and finishing runner-up in Hamburg, Rublev has fallen considerably down the rankings this season. His one-dimensional power-hitting has just become a bit predictable. He has looked solid- if unspectacular- this week, beating Laslo Djere and Llyod Harris in four sets. He did improve during his 2nd round clash with South African Harris, ultimately hitting 42 winners to just 27 unforced errors. Rublev came into this tournament with very little fanfare (he was thrashed by Sinner in Paris before losing to Etcheverry in Halle). Rublev isn’t known for his grass-court prowess but is a two-time Halle Runner-up. Moreover, the hard-hitting Russian reached the quarterfinals here back in 2023.
It’s crazy to think that 37-year-old Frenchman Adrian Mannarino reached a career-high ranking of 17 just last year. The veteran has endured a torrid season, barely winning a tour-level match coming into these championships (he barely could win at lower levels). I just think time has caught up to the tricksy Frenchman, whose finesse-based game already felt like a relic during his prime years. However, Mannarino has always had an affinity for grass, reaching five grass-court finals throughout his career. And he has defied expectations this week, reaching the 3rd round after surviving an arduous qualifying campaign (he has won five successive matches). He served magnificently in his 2nd round clash with compatriot Valentin Royer, recording 18 aces and winning 86% of his first-serve points.
The Verdict: Rublev to win in four at 2.45- Rublev leads the head-to-head 3-1, winning their most recent meeting at the 2023 Shanghai Masters. Could this be Rublev’s chance to finally progress beyond the quarterfinal of a slam? This has been a strange tournament and we aren’t event through the first week. In any event, he should have too much firepower for Mannarino. The Frenchman’s array of slices and drop-shots might help him bamboozle one set. Ultimately, Rublev’s forehand should be the weapon that seals the day.
