This promises to be an intriguing clash of styles, with brutal baseliner Jannik Sinners looking to keep his title defence alive against elegant compatriot Lorenzo Musetti.
2025 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
US Open Tennis
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre, New York City (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Selected Quarterfinal and Semifinal- 4th-5th September
4th September- Quarterfinal
Jannik Sinner (1) vs Lorenzo Musetti (10)
World No.1 Sinner has been in irresistible form this fortnight, dropping just one set against Shapovalov in the 3rd round. Sinner looked at his dominant best in his round of 16 tie with mercurial Alexander Bublik, pummeling the Kazakh into submission 6-1, 6-1, 6-1. Sinner bullied a visibly out-of-sorts Bublik, winning 81% of first-serve points while hitting 24 winners to 16 unforced errors. A two-time Grand Slam champion this season, Sinner seems to have well and truly recovered from the injury that afflicted him in Cincinnati. Winner of the last three hardcourt slams, Sinner is starting to look virtually unbeatable on these surfaces. His serve is relentless and his weight and consistency of shot is amongst the most fierce the game has ever seen.
I have been pleasantly surprised with Lorenzo Musetti’s progression this fortnight. The crafty Italian shot-maker burst onto the scene last year, reaching two Grand Slam semifinals on the natural surfaces. To be honest, I thought that his vintage, tactical approach may not translate well to the demands of these hardcourt slams. But he has once again impressed this fortnight, dropping just one set against servebot Mpetshi Perricard. Musetti was elegance personified in his round of 16 win against Jaume Munar, hitting 27 winners to 19 unforced errors in an accomplished 6-3, 6-0, 6-1 shellacking. The result improved his 2025 record to 30-12. He started the season slowly but came into his own during the clay-court swing, reaching a maiden Masters final in Monte-Carlo before three successive semifinal appearances in Madrid, Rome and Paris. A left-thigh issue forced him to withdraw deep into a highly competitive French Open semifinal against Alcaraz. He struggled to regain fitness after that and came into this event with limited prospects. But he has looked incredible in New York, using his renowned variety to bamboozle opponents. How will his more nuanced game hold up against the baseline pugilism of Sinner?
The Verdict: Sinner to win in straight sets at 0.49– Sinner leads the head-to-head 2-0 but the pair haven’t met since 2023. On paper, Musetti’s idiosyncratic throwback style could put Sinner into some awkward scenarios. However, I think that Musetti’s exquisite single-handed backhand is going to get exposed by Sinner’s explosive groundstrokes (remember how Federer would get exposed on hardcourts). It might behoove you to opt for under 31.5 games at 0.83.
5th September- Semifinal
Carlos Alcaraz (2) 0.33 vs Novak Djokovic (7) 2.25
Carlos Alcaraz- dodgy buzzcut and all- remains blemish-free this fortnight, beating Jiri Lehecka 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 to progress to the semifinals without dropping a single set. The shot-making extraordinaire never had things all his own way, forced to dig deep into his impressive repertoire against a solid Lehecka (Lehecka did manage to beat Alcaraz in Doha earlier this season). But he came up trumps when needed, playing some of the most extraordinary drop volleys you are likely to see. He ended the match with 28 winners to 17 unforced errors and will be competing in his first Grand Slam hardcourt semifinal since the 2023 US Open. Alcaraz is now 59-6 for the season, leading the tour for wins and titles (6). The Spainard looks well on track to beat his 2023 campaign, where he picked up 65 wins and six titles. Looking for his first hardcourt major since 2022, Alcaraz can actually reclaim the World No.1 ranking if he bests Sinner this week. However, he will first need to take down the iconic Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic remains on course for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title, improving to 11-0 against Taylor Fritz with a 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 quarterfinal win. The four-time US Open champ’s form has vacillated quite dramatically throughout this year’s tournament (he has dropped a set in three matches). He looked quite ordinary at times against Fritz, hitting more unforced errors than winners. But he stepped up when it mattered most, seizing the initiative in the match-defining moments. Djokovic has now reached the semifinal stage at all four majors this season (which is incredibly the 7th time that he has done that in his career). He has tied Jimmy Connors’ record of 14 US Open semifinal appearances, also becoming the oldest male semifinalist here since 1991. He was jeered consistently by the boisterous New York crowd and will probably have to deal with that against Alcaraz (though I think he rather enjoys it). How will the Serb fare against an in-form Alcaraz?
The Verdict: Alcaraz to win in four at 2.5- Djokovic leads the head-to-head 5-3, winning all three of their hard-court matches. The Serb has won their last two meetings, overcoming the Spaniard at last year’s Paris Olympics and at this year’s Aussie Open. However, Alcaraz has won 35 of his last 36 matches, with that one loss coming against Sinner in the Wimbledon final. Wow, this is almost impossible to call. Djokovic has the hardcourt major pedigree but Alcaraz has played sensational tennis this fortnight. I think Alcaraz’s insane array of shot-making might see him through in a tight four-setter.
