Novak Djokovic once against had his struggles at Arthur Ashe stadium, dropping the first set before rallying against American qualifier Zachary Svajda. In the process, the Serb avoided his earliest ever exit at the US Open (he was shocked by Alexei Popyrin at last year’s tournament).
2025 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
US Open Tennis
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre, New York City (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Selected 3rd Round Matches- 29th August
Novak Djokovic (7) 0.09 vs Cameron Norrie 6
Djokovic certainly wasn’t at his best in his first-round match with Tien, battling fatigue in an unconvincing win. Is this just Djokovic being Djokovic, feigning physical discomfort as he works his way into a slam? The Serb has oft been criticized for overblowing his physical ailments but this season feels a bit different. The 38-year-old has been eliminated in three Grand Slam semifinals this year, withdrawing after dropping the first set against Zverev in Melbourne. He was soundly beaten by Sinner in Paris and London and it feels like time is ticking on Djokovic’s chances to win that elusive 25th Grand Slam singles title. Having said that, he was statistically impressive against Svajda, winning 84% of his first-serve points while hitting 48 winners to 25 unforced errors.
Cameron Norrie has endured a roller-coaster campaign. The Scot started the season terribly, narrowly avoiding disqualification in Auckland after hurling his racquet into the crowd. His gritty, counter-punching style just looked jaded and outdated. But he nonetheless shown significant grit at Grand Slam level, reaching the 4th round of the French Open before a lung-busting quarterfinal run at Wimbledon. And he has continued that solid Grand Slam form in New York, benefitting from a Korda’s retirement midway through his opener before a hard-fought win over Argentine Francisco Comesana. He was far from flawless against the Argentine, hitting 52 winners to 60 unforced errors. He served quite poorly, only winning 65% of his first-serve points. Still, the gutsy Brit has a knack of prevailing in these protracted slugfests. Norrie has an unsurprisingly dreadful record against Djokovic but could be exactly the sort of nuggety player who could exploit the Serb’s physical issues (if, indeed, he has any).
The Verdict: Djokovic to win in four sets at 2.25- Djokovic leads the head-to-head 6-0, breezing past the Brit in straight sets at this year’s French Open. In fact, Djokovic has only dropped two sets against Norrie in his career. However, Djokovic’s level looks volatile and I wouldn’t be surprised if Norrie’s brand of pugnacious resistance earns him a set here. However, Djokovic is too canny and possesses levels that Norrie can’t even fathom. Djokovic is four feels right.
Ben Shelton (6) 0.22 vs Adrian Mannarino 3.2
Ben Shelton looks relentless at the moment, crushing former two-time US Open semifinalist Pablo Carreno Busta 6-4, 6-2, 6-4. He served fine, winning 73% of his first-serve points. But he was even more impressive on return, winning an impressive 41% of his first-serve return points! In fact, he won 48% of all return points. Shelton was magnificent in every facet, firing 42 winners to just 25 unforced errors. Shelton is playing with real purpose, mixing his usual effervescence with some grim determination: it looks like he is ready to seize the moment. A semifinalist here in 2023, Shelton reached his 2nd career Grand Slam semifinal at this year’s Aussie Open (highlighting his obvious hardcourt ability). Shelton is in incredible form, 18-3 since the start of Wimbledon. That Toronto victory feels like the final puzzle piece in creating a potential Grand Slam champ.
French throwback player Adrian Mannarino has been a real surprise package in the latter portion of this North American hardcourt swing, winning five matches in Cincy (qualifiers included) before a highly creditable 3rd round run in New York. The 37-year-old Frenchman- who won three titles in 2023- has looked lost for most of the season, a relic of a bygone day of chip-and-slice tennis. But he found something that worked in Cincinnati, beating the likes of Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac before giving Jannik Sinner a solid round of16 match. He thrashed Griekspoor in his US Open opener and held his nerve in a gruelling 2nd round tussle with Jordan Thompson, finally emerging a 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 winner. He was solid against Thompson, winning 76% of his first-serve points and winning 75% of points in the forecourt (he hit 41 winners to 36 unforced errors). He will need to elevate his level even further if he stands any chance against the swaggering Shelton.
The Verdict: Shelton to win in straight sets at 1.18– Mannarino actually leads the head-to-head 2-1, beating the American in five sets at last year’s Aussie Open. However, Shelton won their most recent meeting, thrashing the Frenchman en route to his recent Toronto crown. I can’t see Mannarino troubling Shelton. The American has evolved as a player, solidifying that backhand wing while incorporating more slice and overall variety, This should be a comfortable win.
