2025 ATP Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros
Selected 3rd round – 30 May
Tommy Paul 21/20 | Karen Khachanov 74/100
This should be a fascinating clash between two guys who scraped their way through five-set thrillers. US all-court talent Tommy Paul had to dig deep against Hungarian ironman Marton Fucsovics, coming back from two sets down to reach the 3rd round here for the 2nd successive season.
He was loose against Fucsovics, committing 40 unforced errors while hitting just 33 winners. Paul will be looking to progress beyond the 3rd round here for the first time in his career.
Paul has been a bastion of consistency this season, reaching four semifinals (he also reached the quarterfinals at the Aussie Open). He has been particularly impressive on clay, improving to 10-3 for the year with that comeback win over Fucsovics.
He looked brilliant in Rome, nicking a set off Jannik Sinner in his 2nd successive Italian Open semifinal run. Paul isn’t your prototypical hardcourt player, relying on a mixture of power and finesse. He incorporates slice into his game and isn’t adverse to coming to the net to finish off his opponent.
29-year-old Russian Karen Khachanov had a different sort of five-set marathon, trading blows with Sebastian Ofner before ultimately prevailing 7-5, 3-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2.
The durable Russian has been an extremely consistent Roland Garros operator over the seasons, reaching the 4th round or better in six of his eight previous visits (he reached the quarterfinals in 2019 and 2023).
He won two minor titles last season but hasn’t been at his best this year, failing to reach the quarterfinals in his first eight events of the year. However, he looked more assured on the clay, reaching the semifinals in Barcelona before pushing eventual champ Carlos Alcaraz to three sets in Rome.
The two-time Grand Slam semifinalist relishes the gruelling nature of Grand Slam tennis, pushing his opponents to the limit with his relentless depth and supreme physicality.
The Verdict: Paul to win in four sets 4/1
Paul leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning in three sets in Madrid a few weeks back. This will be one for the purists, with two rally-resistant players capable of mind-melting exchanges.
I think that Paul looks poised for a career-best French Open run. He was remarkable in Rome, and Khachanov has underwhelmed at Grand Slam level for the last few seasons. I think Paul’s ability in the forecourt could prove decisive.
Frances Tiafoe 99/100 | Seb Korda 8/10
France Tiafoe produced one of his best clay-court performances in recent memory in his 2nd round Roland Garros clash, crushing Spanish veteran Pablo Carreno Busta 6-4, 6-3, 6-1. Tiafoe was exemplary, hitting 37 winners to 19 unforced errors in his 2nd consecutive straight-sets win.
The two-time US Open semifinalist has been quite poor this season, improving to 14-12 with that emphatic victory over Carreno Busta. But he did pick up his best result of the season on the clay, finishing runner-up in Houston.
He owns a dismal 6-9 Roland Garros record, but he has the sort of big-match temperament that others can only dream of. He appears to be moving well this week and may be on the cusp of a breakthrough clay-court performance.
Compatriot Seb Korda has struggled for consistency since reaching his 9th career final at the Adelaide International. The lanky American came into this event with a humdrum 9-9 record but defined expectations in his first-round clash, taking down promising clay-courter Luciano Darderi in four sets.
He then backed that up with a comfortable straight-sets win over Houston champ Jenson Brooksby. Korda has survived a tricky early draw, using his strong serve and crisp groundstrokes to placate his opponents. He has struggled with movement over the years, but appears to be a little more balanced this year.
Korda reached the 2nd week here on debut in 2019 and will be desperate to repeat that performance. He has some clay-court chops, winning in Parma back in 2021.
The Verdict: Tiafoe to win in five 46/10
These two have enjoyed a tasty rivalry, with three wins apiece in six meetings. However, Korda has won their last three encounters, winning in straight sets at last year’s Washington Open.
Tiafoe won their only previous clay-court contest (a three-set Estoril semifinal back in 2022). This could be a classic, with both players looking to be aggressive and dominate their opponent.
Korda’s win over Darderi was significant, and I can see him potentially gaining an early advantage. However, I do think that Tiafoe’s superior physicality will see him through in the end.