The Australian Open continues this week as Jannik Sinner faces Alex de Minaur while Ben Shelton goes up against Lorenzo Sonego in the competition’s quarter-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park
Selected QF matches – 22 January
Jannik Sinner 2/11 | Alex de Minaur 37/10
Jannik Sinner survived a slight health scare during his round of 16 clash with Holger Rune, fighting uncontrollable shaking fits en route to victory. Sinner said that he was feeling a bit under the weather going into the match.
Jim Courier said he looked like a zombie at one point. Sinner lost the 2nd set but still managed to win comfortably, hitting 35 winners to 35 unforced errors (hardly disastrous).
He served decisively, firing down 14 aces and winning 83% of his first-serve points. Sinner is now 44-3 since becoming World No.1, surpassing Bjorn Borg’s 91.9%-win percentage as the highest-ranked player on the men’s tour since 1973.
He has now won eleven straight Aussie Open matches. Sure, he may be experiencing a few physical difficulties at present. But he knows how to get the job done, leaning on his serve and immense groundstrokes when his mobility is slightly diminished.
‘Speed Demon’ Alex de Minaur will look to overturn a major head-to-head disparity when he comes up against Jannik Sinner. Considering Sinner’s current physical issues, de Minaur may never get a better chance to finally pick up his maiden win against the awe-inspiring Italian.
The Aussie improved to 6-0 for the season after an impressive straight-sets win over American breakout star Alex Michelson, hitting 28 winners to 25 unforced errors. De Minaur has certainly become more aggressive these past 18 months, looking to step in against 2nd serves.
That conscious decision to ramp up the aggression has reaped major dividends, with the Aussie set to compete in his 4th consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal. However, the Aussie is still yet to go beyond the quarterfinal stage. In fact, he has a terrible 2-10 record against the top 10 players in slams.
Sure, he has made serious strides these past few years. But he still lacks the powerhouse weapon that tends to get players over the line in the latter stages of slams.
The Verdict: Sinner to win in four sets 24/10
Sinner has utterly dominated the Aussie in their head-to-head rivalry, winning all nine matches- dropping just one set in the process. I wouldn’t put too much stock in Sinner’s physical issues. He may have been dealing with a fleeting virus, but I suspect he will be just fine going into this clash.
Potential doping ban notwithstanding, Sinner is playing some of the best hardcourt tennis in living memory. There may be some value in backing de Minaur to elevate his game and nick a set off the Italian. But I just can’t see the Aussie surviving Sinner’s power-based game.
Ben Shelton 31/100 | Lorenzo Sonego 47/20
The 23-year-old American Ben Shelton enjoyed an up-and-down 2024 campaign, reaching a career-high ranking of 13 but failing to make a massive impressive in the slams. He also started this season poorly, going out early to Jakub Mensik in Auckland.
But the big-serving lefty has a penchant for playing his best tennis at Grand Slam level, reaching his 3rd Grand Slam quarterfinal following Gael Monfis’ emotional 4th set retirement. Shelton burst onto the scene in this very event, producing an unheralded quarterfinal run back in 2023.
He went one better later that year, reaching the semifinals of the US Open. He knows what it takes to produce a deep Grand Slam run. And while he may not be as consistent as Alex de Minaur, he does possess weapons that can scare elite players.
Shelton possesses a booming serve and massive forehand. Sure, he does have a wobbly backhand and his 2nd serve is hardly reliable. Shelton is a player who feeds off the atmosphere, often lifting his overall performance in crunch moments.
Lorenzo Sonego has probably been the biggest overall surprise package at this year’s Aussie Open. The Italian advanced to his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal following a solid four-set win over rising American Learner Tien.
Where did this come from? The 29-year-old Italian had a rather dismal 2024 campaign, compiling a 20-29 record for the season. The Italian still managed to show his class, easing past Alex Michelson in the final of the Winston-Salem Open.
So, he only managed a 20-29 record despite winning a title! That tells you everything you need to know about his consistency. He also started this year in ignominious fashion, losing to a woefully out-of-form Cameron Norrie in Hong Kong.
He then lost convincingly to Michelson in Auckland. So, I think it’s fair to say that very few people had Sonego on their radar this week. He hasn’t exactly sailed through this fortnight, needing at least four sets in all his matches (he needed five to overcome Brazilian Fonesca in the 2nd round).
But he possesses big weapons that have been able to bail him out of some tricky situations. He served 20 aces in his 4th round win over Tien, winning 90% of his first-serve points. Sonego has a powerful forehand that he hits with very little topspin (which is ideal in these quick conditions).
The Verdict: Shelton to win in five 37/10
These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece, with Sonego winning their most recent encounter at the 2023 French Open. This one has the potential to go all the way. Both players are boom-or-bust types, relying on big serves and heavy forehands.
This will probably give the match a bit of a stop-start quality. Sonego’s forehand has been immense and I can see him finding plenty of joy with it (especially crosscourt), I still think that Shelton’s previous Grand Slam experience could give him the edge in the end.
