The Australian Open continues this week as Novak Djokovic faces Carlos Alcaraz while Alex Zverev goes up against Tommy Paul in the competition’s quarter-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 ATP Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park
Selected QF matches – 21 January
Novak Djokovic 33/20 | Carlos Alcaraz 46/100
This one almost writes itself, with the last remaining member of the so-called ‘Big Three’ looking to delay the inevitable passing of the baton. To be fair, that baton was well and truly passed last season, with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz combining to win all four slams.
That marked the first time since 2017 that Djokovic hadn’t won a single slam in a season. However, Djokovic’s stunning Olympic triumph over Alcaraz indicated that he is in no mood to go into the dark quietly. The Serbian’s campaign has really been textbook Djokovic.
He scrapped through his first two matches, picking up underwhelming four-set victories over Basavareddy and Faria. But he turned on the afterburners in his next two matches, squashing the up-and-coming Czech pair of Machac and Lehecka without dropping a single set.
He showed great composure in his 4th round win over Lehecka, pushing back against an unruly crowd to reach a record-equalling 15th Aussie Open quarterfinal (matching Federer).
The Serb was at his vintage best against Lekecka, committing just 21 unforced errors over three sets of tennis. The Serb appears hellbent on finally surpassing 24 Grand Slam titles (the record that he currently shares with controversial Aussie great Margaret Court).
Winner of a lowly four Grand Slams, Carlos Alcaraz will have his sights set on his own little bit of history this week. Victory in Melbourne would make Alcaraz the youngest-ever winner of the career slam (he is still just 21). It’s crazy to think that Alcaraz – who has achieved so much in his career already – is still just 21 years of age.
However, the athletic all-court phenom hasn’t quite been able to crack the Aussie Open code, failing to go beyond the quarterfinal stage in any of his previous appearances.
The quick surfaces have rushed him in the past and he will be looking to correct that this week. He has progressed serenely through the tournament, dropping one set in his 3rd round win over Borges. He will feel fresh as a daisy going into this mouthwatering clash, with Jack Draper being forced to withdraw from their 4th round clash in just the 2nd set.
I wonder if the Spaniard may have benefitted from a little more time out there (especially against a high-quality opponent such as Draper).
The Verdict: Djokovic to win in four sets 56/10
Djokovic leads the head-to-head 4-3, winning both of their previous hardcourt meetings (that 2023 Cincinnati Open final being one for the ages).
They split the wins last season, with Alcaraz conquering Djokovic in the Wimbledon final before the Serb’s Olympic conquest. This has all the makings of a classic, with both players chasing their own little bit of immortality.
However, Djokovic’s game is looking ominous and Alcaraz is still yet to fully convince on these surfaces. Sure, Alcaraz’s revamped serve is generating a little more heat this year. But the Serb is inarguably the greatest ever returner and he will apply constant pressure in that department.
Alex Zverev 32/100 | Tommy Paul 47/20
Could this possibly be Alex Zverev’s year to finally capture that elusive maiden Grand Slam title? The German enjoyed an incredible 2024 campaign, winning two Masters titles and fishing runner-up at Roland Garros to finish the year ranked No.2 in the world.
The German has become a behemoth on serve and his groundstrokes are comparable to anyone. Zverev cruised through his first three Aussie Open matches, reveling in the quick conditions.
He dropped a set against Ugo Humbert in his 4th round match, rallying back to win impressively. He served phenomenally against the Frenchman, firing down 19 aces and winning 84% of his first-serve points.
He ultimately hit 43 winners against Humbert, moving past that dropped set to prevail 6-1, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2. It really feels as if Zverev is building towards that breakthrough slam (that line-call in last year’s French Open final was borderline criminal).
He knows what it takes to make a deep run in Melbourne, twice reaching the semifinals here (2020 and 2024).
Tommy Paul has taken the scenic route into this year’s quarterfinal stage. The 27-year-old American survived an incredible first-round tie against Christopher O’Connell, seeing off the inspired hometown hero in five sets.
He then had to come from a set down against a rejuvenated Kei Nishikori. But he has cruised through his last two rounds, taking down the Spanish pair of Carballes Baena and Davidovich Fokina without dropping a set.
To be fair, Davidovich Fokina was recovering from successive two-set comebacks. Paul announced himself to the world with a semifinal run here back in 2023.
And he has steadily improved since then, climbing to a career-high ranking of 11 following his recent Adelaide semifinal run. Paul never faced a break-point against Davidovich Fokina, winning 84% of his first-serve points.
Paul’s groundstrokes certainly have more pop these days and his footwork remains elite. I also think his ability to dominate the net gives him an added dimension.
The Verdict: Paul to win in four sets 7/1
Paul leads their head-to-head rivalry 2-0 (though their last meeting came back in 2022). I just have a feeling that Paul could spring an upset here. Zverev has been relatively untested thus far and Paul is a natural scrapper.
Zverev has the greater weight of shot but Paul’s use of slice gives him plenty of natural variety. I think his all-court game could frustrate Zverev (who has a propensity to implode in the latter stages of slams).
