24-year-old American Brandon Nakashima has enjoyed a solid under-the-radar campaign, momentarily popping into the top 30 in the world for the first time in his career.
2025 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Japan Open
Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 24th September
Brandon Nakashima 0.39 vs Jordan Thompson 1.9
While he is yet to reach a final since the 2022 San Diego Open, Nakashima has produced consistently this year, reaching seven quarterfinals this season (three of which he converted into semifinals). He has also shown improvement in more elite fields, reaching the 4th round in three Masters 1000 outings. The all-court dynamo looked kinetic in last week’s Chengdu Open, serving 35 aces before running into an inspired Alejandro Tabilo in the semis. He has worked on becoming more aggressive and his net play has evolved tremendously. Currently sitting on 28-23 for the season, Nakashima has arguably been the best player this year to not compete in a final. He just lacks a ruthless streak when it comes to the business end of events. Still, he will feel quietly confident after an impressive serving showcase in Kuala Lumpur.
This has been a slog of a season for industrious Aussie Jordan Thompson. The hardcourt specialist enjoyed the best season of his career last year, breaking his ATP Tour title duck at the Los Cabos Open (to go with a runner-up finish at the Atlanta Open). But the pugnacious Aussie has been afflicted by a host of injuries this season. And Thompson’s game- which doesn’t feature any huge weapons- is dependent on peak physical conditioning. He has a ruptured plantar fascia in his right foot, forcing him to miss two months of action. He has also suffered a groin tear, herniated disc and persistent issues with sacroiliac joint in his back. In fact, he has only played four matches since the Wimbledon Championships. So, it’s hard to judge exactly what type of standard we could see from Thompson this week. Thompson still managed one notable result amid all the injury chaos, picking up a career-best 4th round finish at SW19. He was beaten in the first round at last week’s Chengdu Open, going down in straight sets to Alejandro Tabilo (who plays Musetti in today’s final).
The Verdict: Nakashima to win in straight sets at 1.04- Nakashima leads the head-to-head 4-2, winning their most recent meeting in straight sets at last year’s Wimbledon Championships. I just can’t see any other result other than a comfortable Nakashima win. He is hitting the ball with consistent power and depth, and an undercooked Thompson is going to struggle to contain him.
Ugo Humbert (6) 0.82 vs Jenson Brooksby 0.96
Big-serving lefty Ugo Humbert has had an injury-riddled season, losing most of the momentum that he had built during last year’s excellent campaign. Humbert was on fire last year, winning two titles and picking up two runner-up finishes (one of which came in this event). He looked supremely comfortable on these surfaces, going down to Alex Zverev in the championship match. He started this year in similar fashion, reaching the 4th round of the Aussie Open before making it back-to-back titles in Marseille. But he has suffered through a series of injuries since then, fracturing the 5th metacarpal on his right hand before dealing with calf issues. Humbert was poor in his most recent outing, upset by Aussie Adam Walton in the first round of the US Open. A prototypical first-strike player, Humbert can struggle in outdoor conditions (especially if he has been injured or is fighting for form). Still, he will have some positive muscle-memory after last year’s showing and may draw some confidence from that.
24-year-old American Jenson Brooksby has enjoyed a solid comeback season. The unconventional baseliner spent nearly two years on the sideline before the start of this campaign, with injuries and a 13-month doping suspension bringing his career to a grinding halt. He understandably struggled in the early part of the season: he hadn’t played since 2023. But he managed to find some joy in home environs, reaching a maiden ATP Tour title at the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship in Houston. He proved that was no fluke with a runner-up finish in Eastbourne. He looked decent in the latter part of the North American hardcourt swing, reaching the 3rd round in Cincy before pushing Cobolli to five sets in the 2nd round of the US Open. That performance against Cobolli should be his blueprint going into this match. A defensive counterpuncher, Brooksby used variety and disguise to deal with Cobolli’s mammoth power.
The Verdict: Brooksby to win in three at 3.5– These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece, with the American coming from a set down to win in Eastbourne earlier this year. Humbert looks a shadow of the player he was last year and Brooksby’s awkward style could expose his deficiencies. Brooksby’s athleticism and defensive prowess will force Humbert into many protracted exchanges. I think the American in three is a solid bet.
