This promises to be a fascinating matchup between two guys who have battled for consistency all season. 8th seed Daniil Medvedev is still looking to exorcise the memories of that humiliating US Open mental breakdown.
2025 ATP Tour
ATP 500
China Open
National Tennis Centre, Beijing, China (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 26th September
Daniil Medvedev (8) 0.35 vs Cameron Norrie 2.15
The truculent Russian was at his most petulant in New York, abusing racquets and umpires alike while inciting the crowd to disrupt proceedings. He never shone in his first post-US Open outing, going down to home favourite Wu Yibing in the Hangzhou quarterfinals. The former US Open champion has struggled with positioning at the back of on the court, with the likes of Sinner and Alcaraz taking baseline brutalism to new extremes. He is 27-19 this year, reaching his lone final in Halle (where he lost to Bublik). More disturbingly, the hardcourt specialist in only 16-12 on his favoured surface this year (and is yet to reach a final). He looks mentally vulnerable but may draw some confidence from the fact that he did finish runner-up here back in 2023. These are some of the slowest hardcourts on tour and his defensive prowess should be an asset.
Cameron Norrie has also been battling with consistency these past 18 months or so, struggling to rediscover the bustling form that propelled him to No.8 in the world. An archetypical counterpuncher, Norrie has battled to maintain the requisite energy levels for a player who doesn’t possess dominating weapons (he probably played too much tennis during his golden period). Norrie- who has a decent 31-24 record this season- has reserved his best tennis for the Grand Slam stage, reaching the 4th round of the French Open before a glowing quarterfinal run at Wimbledon. He looked impressive at Flushing Meadows, nicking a set off Djokovic in their 3rd round clash. He has struggled to parlay that Grand Slam doggedness into consistency on the tour proper, falling to Zhou Yi in the first round of last week’s Chengdu Open. Known for his heavy topspin forehand and defensive acumen, Norrie will look to take advantage of Medvedev’s recent confidence dip. Norrie understands what it takes to thrive on slower hardcourts, winning Los Cabos and Indian Wells in the past.
The Verdict: Medvedev to win in straight sets at 0.89- Medvedev leads the head-to-head 4-1. Norrie won their most recent meeting, surviving a titanic five-setter at this year’s French Open. However, Medvedev has won all three of their hardcourt meetings in straight sets. His ability to flatten the ball out should give him a distinct advantage (even on courts as slow as this). Norrie has hardly been in sparkling form, and I expect Medvedev to pass this test.
Andrey Rublev (6) 0.41 vs Flavio Cobolli 1.85
With Novak Djokovic unlikely to compete at this year’s ATP Finals, Russian Andrey Rublev will be hoping to sneak his way into the season-ending showpiece in Turin. This has been a frustrating campaign for the former ATP 500 titan. The perennial Grand Slam underachiever did nothing to improve his reputation this season, going out in the 4th round in each of the last three majors. He has shown fleeting moments of his best tennis, winning a 2nd career Qatar title while finishing runner-up in Hamburg. He hinted at a spectacular North American hardcourt campaign, reaching back-to-back quarterfinals in Toronto and Cincinnati before that dispiriting straight-sets defeat to Auger-Aliassime in New York. He completely flopped at the Hangzhou Open, upset by unseeded Frenchman Valentin Royer in a performance that reeked of post-US Open indifference.
23-year-old Flavio Cobolli has enjoyed an excellent season, entering the top 20 for the first time in his career during its high point. A finalist in Washington last year, Cobolli thrived during this year’s European clay-court swing, winning titles in Romania and Hamburg. The aggressive Italian has improved at Grand Slam level, either matching or surpassing his previous best results at each of the last three slams (which included a maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal run at Wimbledon). He has been somewhat less impressive at Masters level, with his sole notable result being a 4th round run at the recent Toronto event. Cobolli withdrew while trailing Musetti in New York and looked severely undercooked in his first post-US Open outing, outmuscled by Joao Foneca in their Laver Cup tie. Blessed with a big serve and humongous forehand, Cobolli will look to set the early pace and expose Rublev’s frailties.
The Verdict: Cobolli to win in three at 4.8– Cobolli leads the head-to-head 1-0, easing past the Russian in straight sets at this year’s Hamburg Open. I think that Cobolli could make it 2-0 against an out-of-form Rublev. Sure, the Russian does have the allure of ATP Finals qualification to fight for. I just think that Cobolli may benefit from the relative slowness of these Beijing surfaces.
