Denis Shapovalov barely broke a sweat in his opening clash with Govind Nanda, crushing the American 6-1, 6-2. It was a gigantic mismatch, with the Canadian hitting 25 winners to Nanda’s 3!
2025 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Mifel Tennis Open (Los Cabos Open)
Cabo Sports Complex, Los Cabos, Mexico (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Selected Quarterfinals- 18th July
Denis Shapovalov (3) vs Tristan Schoolkate
The big-hitting lefty is fresh off an underwhelming 1-4 grass-court campaign. In reality, Shapovalov hasn’t been the same since a brief purple patch towards the beginning of the season. The Canadian won his 3rd career title at the ATP 500 Dallas Open, becoming only the 4th man to beat three top ten players en route to an ATP 250 or ATP 500 title (which gives you some idea about his undoubted potential). He followed up that Dallas victory with a highly creditable semifinal in Acapulco. But as has been the case throughout Shapovalov’s frustrating career, the Canadian just can’t create any real consistency. Still, Shapovalov has the kind of effortless power that always makes him dangerous in these ‘minor’ events.
23-year-old Aussie Tristan Schoolkate sailed through his round of 16 clash with 5th seed Daniel Altmaier, seeing off the German 6-3, 6-4. The aggressive Aussie was impressive in virtually every facet of the game, winning 72% of his first-serve points while hitting 25 winners to 14 unforced errors. Schoolkate gained street-cred at this year’s Aussie Open, ending the event as the only man to lead Sinner by a set all fortnight (he won the first set in their 2nd round clash). He has struggled to make any real impression on the tour since then. Having said that, he has remained fairly consistent at Challenger level, winning titles in Brisbane and Ilkley. The Aussie took Sinner out of his comfort zone in Melbourne, rushing the net to destabilize the all-conquering Italian. He has won back-to-back matches this week and will feel quietly confident of pulling off a huge upset against the wildly inconsistent Shapovalov.
The Verdict: Schoolkate to win in straight sets at – This will be their first career meeting. Every now and again, you have to take a calculated risk. Schoolkate looked completely at ease against Altmaier and Shapovalov is notoriously mercurial. I wouldn’t be surprised if Schoolkate looks to rush the net in this match, forcing the baseline-hugging Shapovalov into quick-time decisions (which isn’t his forte). I don’t know, I just think there’s enough inconsistency with Shapovalov to venture on the odd upset.
Andrey Rublev (1) vs Emilio Nava
Top seed Andrey Rublev was in absolute cruise control in his opening match with World No.493 Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano, hitting 26 winners to just 17 unforced errors while winning 92% of his first-serve points. It was Rublev’s first outing since his latest Grand Slam heartbreak. To be fair, the hard-hitting Russian never disgraced himself at SW19, taking a set off Carlos Alcaraz before going down in their round of 16 clash. Rublev never broke down in histrionic fashion this time around (perhaps hiring Marat Safin to help him with the mental side of the game is actually paying off). In any event, the win improved his disappointing 2025 record to 22-15 (his sole title coming in Doha). Rublev is clearly intent on getting ahead of the competition ahead of this year’s North American hardcourt season. In reality, nothing short of victory this week will suffice for the Rublev camp.
Wow. Emilio Nava booked his spot in a maiden ATP Tour level quarterfinal with an insane comeback win over 6th seed Yunchaokete Bu. Nava played hell-for-leather tennis, hitting 55 winners to 59 unforced errors in a gung-ho display of maverick shot-making. He saved four match-points in that 3rd set tiebreaker, rising from the depths like the Undertaker. The 23-year-old showed real promise as a junior, reaching two Grand Slam Boys’ finals in 2019. He has struggled to establish himself at tour level but has enjoyed a remarkably consistent campaign on this year’s Challenger circuit, winning titles in Chile and Sarasota while finishing runner-up in Tallahassee. Nava is a big-serving, aggressive baseliner, hitting 25 aces in his first two matches. He can become a bit one-dimensional and is working on trying to vary his court position, rushing the net on occasion.
The Verdict: Rublev to win in three sets at – This will be their first career meeting. Clearly Rublev- a 17-time ATP Tour champion- is a massive favourite here. But I just can’t help but think that Nava has a decent chance of picking up a set here. His hell-is-for-heroes approach to shot-making makes him a dangerous opponent in these quick conditions. He will be freerolling after his heroics against Bu and could catch Rublev slightly unawares. Still, the Russian’s consistency and depth of shot will get the job done in the end.
