Novak Djokovic will be looking to extend his career Grand Slam record with a fifth straight Wimbledon title this month.
2022/2023 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Men’s Wimbledon Tennis Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club (Outdoor Grass)
3rd-16th July
South African sporting enthusiasts of a certain vintage often cite the 1995 Rugby World Cup as their formative sporting moment. I remember the fever surrounding that period but was too young to absorb the magnitude of the event. I personally trace my love of sport back to Sampras’ era of Wimbledon dominance. And Goran Ivanisevic’s victory at the 2001 Wimbledon Championships is probably still my most treasured sporting memory. It was as close as you can get to a real-life Rocky moment (short of him having a girlfriend named Adrienne). And I still hold a special connection to the tournament that really ignited my love of sport.
Having said that, I doubt we are going to be privy to anything resembling a Rocky moment in this year’s men’s final. Novak Djokovic’s dominance of this event is more like something out of Groundhog Day.
The Serb will be aiming for his 5th consecutive Wimbledon title this year. He will also be looking to match arch-rival Roger Federer’s all-time Wimbledon total of eight championships. Victory here will take him to three legs of the calendar Slam for the 2nd successive season. Federer has retired and Nadal’s body is buckling under the weight of all those brutal baseline exchanges. It’s just Djokovic left out to there to reap all the benefits.
I don’t’ dislike Djokovic, per se. He used to be oddly amusing in that ‘fun’ uncle kind of way. But he was cast as the villain during that vaccine fiasco and the Serb has really grown into the role. He now possesses an eagle-eyed focus that makes him feel like an automaton. I find it hard to really care when he wins: it just feels slightly soulless. Is there anyone who can realistically stop the unflappable Serb?
Over the generations, we've witnessed iconic rivalries, triumphant feats and heroic defeats.
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 12, 2023
But while the names may change, the drama remains.
New storylines await us, and #Wimbledon will once again be Always Like Never Before ✨
Past Champions
2022: Novak Djokovic bt Nick Kyrgios (4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6)
2021: Novak Djokovic bt Matteo Berrettini (6-7, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3)
2020: no event due to Covid
2019: Novak Djokovic bt Roger Federer (7-6, 1-6, 7-6, 4-6, 13-12)
2018: Novak Djokovic bt Kevin Anderson (6-2, 6-2, 7-6)
2017: Roger Federer bt Marin Cilic (6-3, 6-1, 6-4)
Grass-court precursors this year
Stuttgart Open: Frances Tiafoe bt Jan-Lennard Struff (4-6, 7-6, 7-6)
Rosmalen Grass Court Championships: Tallon Greikspoor bt Jordan Thompson (6-7, 7-6, 6-3)
Halle Open: Alexander Bublik bt Andrey Rublev (6-3, 3-6, 6-3)
Queen’s Club Championships: Carlos Alcaraz bt Alex de Minaur (6-4, 6-4)
Eastbourne Invitational and Mallorca Championships: in progress
𝗔 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 👨🎓
— Eurosport (@eurosport) June 23, 2023
Carlos Alcaraz says he studied Andy Murray and Roger Federer to improve his tennis on grass 🌱👀 pic.twitter.com/OwJbis4KQP
The Top Three- Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Danil Medvedev
Novak Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz may have recently taken back the World Number Ranking, but we all know who is the top dog coming into this year’s championships. Novak Djokovic has won the last four editions of this event. In fact, the last person to win this event other than Djokovic- Federer- has now retired. He is on a 28-match winning streak at SW19 and currently holds a formidable 80-10 overall record in London. His dominance here is actually starting to rival that of Nadal in Paris.
He obviously comes into this match fresh from taking the outright lead in men’s Grand Slam titles (23). Victory here will see him surpass Serena Williams to become the leading player- man or woman- in contemporary tennis (he will still need one more Slam to overtake Margaret Court overall). And it’s really hard to look past the Serb this year. His statement win over Alcaraz in the French Open semi-final seems has opened up even more daylight between him and his would-be rivals.
Carlos Alcaraz
You had to feel for Alcaraz in that French Open semi-final. Those crippling cramps robbed us of what could have been an all-timer against Djokovic. But he should take a lot of heart from the fact that he went toe-to-toe with Djokovic for those first two sets (though you always felt Djokovic had that little bit more, injury or not).
The truth is this: Carlos Alcaraz still represents the biggest threat to Djokovic’s hegemony. He has won five titles this year (including his maiden grass-court title at Queens). He reached the 4th round here last year in only his 2nd appearance. He has all the weaponry necessary to succeed on grass. He serves brilliantly and has absolutely sublime touch at the net. It’s going to take something special for him to overcome the mental hurdle of Roland Garros. But the points here are shorter and the Spaniard should be able to withstand the physical toll of it.
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev is perhaps the biggest wildcard in the draw. His flat-hitting style sometimes make it harder for him to thrive in conditions that bounce a bit lower. His movement has also looked a bit labored on grass-courts. His 4th round run in 2021 was his best Wimbledon finish to date (he missed last year’s event due to the ban on Russian athletes). But he used last year’s ban to his benefit, playing in a host of grass-court preliminary events to get more accustomed to the surface. And it worked: he reached the finals of the Rosmalen and Halle events.
But he has struggled during these current grass-court precursors. So, it’s hard to tell which Medvedev will arrive. But he has won five titles this year- including back-to-back Masters 1000 titles in Miami and Rome. Having said all that, he hasn’t gone beyond the 4th round of a Slam since that heartbreaking defeat to Nadal in last year’s Aussie Open final. There are just too many negative variables at play to confidently back Medvedev.
Back on Centre Court for the first time since lifting the trophy 🏆
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 29, 2023
🎤 @DjokerNole on the mic during practice...#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/kFnMXEKqZX
My Other Top Ten Contenders- Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz
I’m quite comfortable dismissing clay-court specialists Casper Rudd and Holger Rune this year. Both have showed their all-court potential but neither player has gone beyond the 2nd round of these championships. I’m also not optimistic that Tsitsipas will receive a Badosa-bump this year. He has a poor 50%-win record at these championships (he has never gone beyond the 4th round here). Sure, he won in Mallorca last year. But this year he has suffered devastating Grand Slam defeats to Djokovic and Alcaraz. I think that will carry some weight.
I feel comfortable leaving out Rublev given his propensity to implode in Grand Slam quarterfinals. Frances Tiafoe is the guy who came closest to making my final cut. The big-serving American went down in five sets to David Goffin in the 4th round of last year’s championships.
He just won his 2nd title of the year in Stuttgart (which also happened to be his first grass-court title). His semi-final run at last year’s US Open showed that he has what it takes to go deep in a Slam. But he just misses out on making this short-list.
Jannik Sinner
I’m taking a bit of a leap of faith with 21-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner. He hasn’t reached a semi-final since Monte-Carlo and is yet to participate in a grass-court final. Furthermore, he chose to retire from his Halle Open quarterfinal with Bublik. So, that’s some solid evidence against him. I’m really going with my gut on this one.
Sinner has claimed that he will be fit and ready come Wimbledon. And I don’t think he’s a million miles away from the blistering form that he showed post-Aussie Open (he reached five consecutive semi-finals in completed events). This included a title in Montpelier and his 2nd Masters 1000 final at Indian Wells (he would lose to Daniil Medvedev). He has shown decent Grand Slam pedigree for someone so young, reaching five Grand Slam quarterfinals thus far. This included his exceptional showing at last year’s Wimbledon Championships.
He actually led Djokovic by two sets to love before the Serb mounted a comeback for the ages. I can just see him soaring back to relevance at the year’s 3rd Slam.
Taylor Fritz
I am actually making quite a few decisions based on faith this year. 25-year-old Taylor Fritz is a disappointing 2-3 on this year’s grass-court circuit. The big-serving American just hasn’t found the rhythm necessary to play his brand of quickfire tennis. I just feel like he is a big occasion player who will elevate his game this week.
He won the 2022 Indian Wells title and reached his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal at last year’s Wimbledon Championships. Fritz has a massive serve that can help him dominate proceedings. He has also developed a formidable forehand that allows him to accumulate plenty of cheap points. He moves quite well for a tall guy and he as a topspin lob right out of the Sampras playbook.
The Mid-tier Choices- Cameron Norrie and Alex Zverev
Cameron Norrie
Things have gone a little quiet of late for 2021 Indian Wells champ Cameron Norrie. He has only reached one semi-final in ten events since conquering Carlos Alcaraz in the Rio final. Still, I think the lefty could still be a very dangerous proposition this week. He is an astute grass-court proponent, overcoming his lack of raw power with superior athleticism and exceptional skills at the net. He also doesn’t mind utilizing the endangered species of modern tennis: the serve-and-volley.
He lost the 2021 Queens final and reached his maiden Grand Slam semi-final at last year’s Wimbledon Championships. He actually led Wimbledon demigod Djokovic by a set in their semi-final showdown. He just lost to Seb Korda in Queens but I think the five-set format suits him better. He is a true ironman of men’s tennis and he could easily rediscover his best form at SW19.
Alex Zverev
This is a bit of a risky option. Alex Zverev is yet to go beyond the 4th round of a Wimbledon Championship (he has reached the semi-final stage of all the other Slams). So, this doesn’t seem to make sense on the surface. But his Wimbledon record doesn’t mean he can’t perform on grass. He just lost to Alexander Bublik in the semi-finals of the Halle Open (an event in which he has twice been a beaten finalist).
His powerful first-serve and definitive forehand makes him a dangerous opponent on all surfaces. And he has registered three consecutive semi-finals leading into this year’s championships. This included a brave semi-final run at Roland Garros (the site of his sickening ankle injury from last season).
Longshot Options- Grigor Dimitrov and Alexander Bublik
Grigor Dimitrov
I know it’s tempting to back last year’s beaten finalist Nick Kyrgios. But I think it’s a stretch for him to truly compete following extensive knee surgery earlier this year. Having said that, he will always stand a puncher’s chance with that cannon of a serve. My first longshot option this year in Grigor Dimitrov. The vastly underachieving Bulgarian has actually shown a semblance of consistency this season.
He reached the semi-finals in Rotterdam and reached his first ATP final in five years in Geneva. He bowed out of the French Open in the 4th round and he just lost to eventual champ Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the Halle Open. Dimitrov reached the semi-finals here in 2014 (the same year in which he won the Eastbourne Invitational). His serve has looked good and I think he has some dark horse potential this week.
Alexander Bublik
My next option is Alexander Bublik, a player whose mercurial nature can rival Jelena Ostapenko. The massive Kazakh is a big-serving unit who has been criticized for adopting a somewhat laissez-faire approach to the game. But there’s no denying his potential (especially on quicker surfaces).He has shown a real penchant for grass, reaching the Hall of Fame Open final twice in his career. But the real impetus behind this decision is his barely believable performance in Halle.
He won the first ATP 500 title of his career in glorious fashion, taking down the likes of Rublev, Zverev and Sinner. I don’t want to get sucked in too much by recency bias but you can’t ignore that list of vanquished foes. He has reached the 3rd round here for the last two years and I can easily envisage him making it deeper this year.
